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Not the wind again! Yes we'll have 6-7 months of wind. To put up with.

Walt nice to see you back!! Thanks as always for your expertise.....Hope to see you alot this winter!!

Walt, My nephew has a trip planned to NYC for Thu-Sun. I don’t know where he’ll be staying, where he’ll be going, and whether or not he’ll be that close to water (probably not). I’d like your opinion. Is the risk for major disruptions in NYC high enough to make you feel he should consider postponing this trip? Or should he still go there? Thanks.

Are you new here?

I think that’s where this ends up…which is a good storm for SNE. Nothing record breaking of course. But a decent Gayle.

You had your blizzard in Feb…you’ll have to live off that for a few years Junior.

October 2021 doesn't grow on trees.

Deep mind has a bunch south of ern li to BID. Kind of like that area.

We deserve a really good storm after 4 months of boredom

Kinda looks meh. Want more wind

pretty frequent gusts up and over 30 today, my anemometer crapped out so I'm going off a station down the street but it's making it feel cooler than it really is.

5" is our threshhold for shellfish. They will often close for lesser amounts for coastal flooding. All the goose poop ends up in oysters. Pro tip don't eat shellfish next week.

NYHOPS 12z/23 ensemble for Sandy Hook edges into Major. idea is not to park your car where it can sand blased-flooded-tree branch damage.

I feel like 2-3"+ is a lock for you and I.

Good headline in my opinion and I say WOW in the differences between the 12z GEFS and EPS Fri night-Monday morning. Have those videos and puzzles handy for power outages, which if the 12z/23 EPS group verifies... extensive SNE LI NJ. You dont need a hurricane to make large interruptions in daily life and so whether or not NHC comments on the potential for a subtropical event , detours etc are likely here SAT-SUN. The only reason I say likely--- its the non EPS eastward modeling. EPS 5h etc track looks pretty ideal for a bashing in the NYC sub forum I95 eastward. and the FGEN R+ of 1-3" may well be aligned up to I84. Very early and still room to underperform eastward (Caution). Just so taken aback but the model differences at 72 hours in this 12z/23 cycle.

Rainfall probably will be highly variable from area to area. Not going to be a uniform amount across the region

This has always been the biggest concern / threat with this. Does it stay minor / moderate or go somewhat higher? That is where the track (closer in or further out) comes into play. Rainfall from the Nassau / Suffolk westward was always secondary and never looked like anything heavy. Full moon aids the coastal flooding threat. Jersey coast and LI Sound remain most at risk for coastal flooding. Still going with a closer in more EURO type solution so some places could approach major flooding with long duration onshore flow. Winds along the coast gusting to 40 mph and 50 mph Suffolk county. Good gradient with high to the north.

The rain won’t be an issue, it’s the wind and coastal flooding. Looks to be an issue on all models

AI mean makes more sense to me fwiw.

This is the internet now. Sports forums, weather, Reddit, doesn’t matter… everyone complaining about something .

So long as the entire month isn't cold, that's solid for winter. Traditionally don't want a very cold October heading into winter, but a nice cold shot to really break into fall would be perfect. I saw that signal too within the means. Hopefully it happens. That'll accelerate the foliage around these parts.

https://www.youtu.be/J7GBxc_VwcE treys fall winter severe weather tornado forecast is out now .

Although GFS might be too far east, I don't know if those western solutions are realistic either. GFS and Euro seem to develop a vort related to convection and the solutions result in the differences we see. GFS has the convection further east. Also, could the Euro guidance be treating this as more warm core, and therefore be more prone to sling west with the environmental flow? Whereas something that is becoming more extratropical may want to move more to the N and NE where the better combo of warm air advection and positive vorticity is maximized. I'm just thinking out loud.

It may ramp up more over the next two days…that’s a distinct and plausible possibility.