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I feel like asking NHC if those 100 mph winds are in the room with them right now...

This happened w/ HU Lili in Oct 2002. It ramped up very quickly over the loop current, but once exiting, it weakened even faster in short order. 90 > 125 kt in 24 hr and then 125 > 80 kt in 24 hr at landfall. And the environment for LIli was not nearly as baroclinic w/ a lot of dry air/shear present as Isaias now. 20021002, 0000, , HU, 23.0N, 85.7W, 90, 967, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999 20021002, 0600, , HU, 23.6N, 87.2W, 100, 962, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999 20021002, 1200, , HU, 24.4N, 88.3W, 110, 952, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999 20021002, 1800, , HU, 25.4N, 89.5W, 120, 941, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999 20021002, 2013, I, HU, 25.9N, 89.9W, 125, 938, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999 20021003, 0000, , HU, 26.7N, 90.3W, 125, 940, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999 20021003, 0600, , HU, 28.1N, 91.4W, 105, 957, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999 20021003, 1200, , HU, 29.2N, 92.1W, 80, 962, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999 20021003, 1300, L, HU, 29.5N, 92.2W, 80, 963, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, 10

As I said, it'll hit Cat 3 before landfall.

I was not expecting 100 mph at this advisory especially with little to no change in pressure. Isaias is looking better on satellite now. Tonight probably best chance to overperform with that warm eddy and diurnal favorable timing for intensification before shear starts to offset everything.

Not a bad looking storm at all!

Eye has continued to develop and clear. Looks like a Cat 1-2 hurricane, which is what it is

The Nino is going to accelerate the warming to a degree no one has ever seen.

Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 400 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026 The eye of Isaias has become apparent on visible and infrared satellite imagery. Interestingly, this is the first eye noted on satellite pictures in the Atlantic basin during the 2026 Hurricane Season. The cloud tops have mostly warmed in the system, but the latest subjective Dvorak classification value from TAFB has increased to T4.5 or 77 kt. NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations do not indicate a drop in central pressure so far and the peak 700-mb flight-level winds have not increased. However, Tail Doppler Radar wind velocities from the aircraft measured just above the surface support increasing the intensity to 85 kt for this advisory. Satellite and aircraft center fixes indicate that the hurricane appears to have made its expected turn toward the northeast and the initial motion is now 050/10 kt. Isaias is expected to turn northward tomorrow and move between a mid-level ridge extending westward from the Bahamas to the Florida peninsula and a trough near the northwest Gulf Coast. On the forecast track, the center will move inland along the northern Gulf coast within the next 36 hours, and then pass over portions of the southeastern U.S. during the next few days. The official forecast is nudged slightly eastward and follows the latest corrected consensus model guidance. The intensity forecast remains somewhat problematic. The hurricane will be passing over Gulf waters of high oceanic heat content during the next day or so. In fact, the projected track of Isais shows it passing near a warm eddy overnight. However, the vertical wind shear, which is already significant, is expected to increase substantially during the next 36 hours. The current thinking is that the shear will not offset the conducive oceanic conditions until 12-24 hours, so further strengthening is anticipated overnight. The official intensity forecast is at the high end of the model guidance, but in consideration of the expected stronger wind shear in 24-36 hours, some decrease in intensity is indicated as Isaias approaches the coast. Regardless, Isaias is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane through landfall, and strong gusty winds are expected well inland after the center crosses the coast. Key Messages: 1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Suwannee, Florida. Residents in the warning area should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate immediately if told to do so. 2. Damaging hurricane force-winds are expected over portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, and southern Mississippi where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should prepare for the possibility of long-duration power outages. 3. Damaging wind gusts are possible over much of central and northern Alabama, extreme eastern Mississippi, and portions of western and northern Georgia, especially in areas of higher terrain. Additional Tropical Storm and High Wind Watches and Warnings may be required for portions of that area later tonight. Residents should secure loose outdoor items, avoid driving high-profile vehicles, and prepare for power outages. 4. Isaias will bring areas of heavy rainfall to the central U.S. Gulf coast and much of the Southeast Friday into the weekend. Considerable flash and urban flooding, along with significant river flooding, will be possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 24.4N 89.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 25.7N 88.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 28.2N 87.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 31.0N 87.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 48H 10/1800Z 33.2N 87.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 11/0600Z 35.0N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 11/1800Z 37.0N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

BULLETIN Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 400 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026 ...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT ISAIAS NOW HAS 100 MPH WINDS... ...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 89.3W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM N OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES

Looks like a repeat of last month with the mega ridge to the SW of here.

Road trip to Argentina?

I find 100MPH hard to believe with the way it looks right now.

Isaias is a atypical TC situation esp. for a landfall. In a way it reminds me of Sandy in Oct 2012, but some differences. However, it has similar implications. The models, both global and hurricane, all along have showed very rapid weakening of Isaias the last 9-12 hr to landfall. 12z HAFS-A 09/18z 951 mb /110 kt 10/03z 984 mb / 63 kt 12z HAFS-B 09/18z 964 mb / 99 kt 10/03z 985 mb / 57 kt So there is a serious question if it will be a hurricane at landfall. In addition, looking at the storm structure forecast, it is difficult to imagine it will still be classifiable as a tropical cyclone at landfall. The SHIPS shear value is 35 kt 09/12z increasing to 49 kt 10/00z. It is fully embedded in a 250 jet streak near landfall and all the convection sheared off N of the center at the time. Very dry air (<20% 700-300 RH) is completely wrapped around and over the center (HAFS A/B forecast attached) and clear, defined frontal features apparent on the moisture fields. Since Isaias is rather small and not that strong, it is unlikely to be able to ward off wind shear and dry air intrusion, like Ian did in Sep 2022. Despite all of the above, I do not see any real emphasis currently in the mainstream on this very real possibility. I've seen this before from NHC. They avoid much emphasis on rapid weakening close to landfall b/c they think ppl will not take the warnings are seriously, but I find this disingenuous. They are not being objective and transparent. This was apparent w/ Milton, which is the most rapid weakening for a HU in a short period leading up to a U.S. landfall. Our forecast skill/modeling have come a long way for TCs, so confidence in outlier or atypical scenarios is higher these days and we should take full advantage of this operationally. I know of no Gulf hurricane situation quite like this one where such rapid weakening and quick PT/ET transition occurs near landfall (Milton comes close). And I see no reason why the HAFS weakening forecast would be wrong given the synoptic pattern currently and this model handled the very rapid weakening of Milton. That was a strong baroclinic interaction with high shear impacting the hurricane. So this presents a problem/challenge as to how Isaias could be handled. The concern is that in deference to messaging, it may not be called PT/ET at landfall or below hurricane strength even if it clearly is since within 12 hr of landfall it may be much stronger. From an objective meteorological standpoint? It should not matter where a TC is (close to a landfall or far at sea), how strong it is, or what type of watches/warnings are in effect, it should be treated "as is" operationally. So if goes ET/PT just before landfall, call it for what is it. The atmosphere does not care about our subjective policies/rules, it does what it does. There is nothing that says a TC can not go ET/PT just before landfall, and it has been done before (Sandy). And after Sandy, things were adjusted so tropical watches/warnings remain in place even if a TC goes ET/PT, so things are covered here from a messaging standpoint. This kind of objectivity is important to the meteorological science. A hurricane at landfall or not is significant from a climo standpoint. And in some cases depending on the state, county, or city/town, what something is called/labeled makes a difference from an insurance and legal standpoint. Some may say all what I say above is being pedantic or picayune, but I beg differ. There were significant discussions and controversy in the meteorological and other fields as to what Sandy was called at landfall. I am just proactively pointing out beforehand a similar TC situation currently.

immaterial by the time earth heats to much up we all will be dead..

i see blue on that map...

Models have been predicting a good drop in pressure tonight as the center passes over the warm loop current eddy.

Wow red all over

Still think we cool down around the mid-month,seemingly we are just fiximg to get sandwiched from the tropics.JMA and Euro are close to be on the same page in the extended period with the MJO,least we should get a break for a few days

we ll know from past history these gulf storms intensify last day right up to landfall even in cases of strong wind shear..

Probably b/c of it small size. Global models had trouble picking it up.

Here we go with this bs… lol it’s go time

I survived surgery. Long road to shoulder healing

Yep. Core is there and it will be moving over slightly warmer waters too. Diurnal max will be the max for this system. Imo 95-105 kts is attainable

5-6pm would be great trying to spend the day in Manhattan