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I guess a flood watch could still be issued by upton A cold front will slowly approach and move through the area Thursday into Thursday night. A period of moderate to heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms will move through Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. There is the potential for isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding, with rain rates of 1 to 2 inches per our possible during this time frame.

A time traveling TC!

@CoastalWxdoes not realize the RPLUS for ern sections is not fcst for tomorrow. The srn MCS is long gone. The big GHG rains are overnight Fri. This is not purely a diurnal convective event!

Link to the pdf, its open access. https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.5203 A general takeaway is that they drilled in on the precision and accuracy of homogenization versus actual parallel data for several variables (tmin, tmax, etc) and generally find homogenization is better than no homogenization, but still needs refinements. Everyone would agree with that. No one is claiming homogenization is always accurate. What homogenization is doing is gathering information that is dormant in the stations around a target station, and adding that information to the raw target station data. Sharp changes at individual stations are visible against the backdrop of other stations, and this is information we want. This is what Chubbs is demonstrating directly in his examples. And looking at his examples, one can see there is a lot of noise inherent in the process.

Well, that was a bust Peak season forecast will come out this week.

Past performance is no guarantee of what happens "next time!"

Meh... Eastern Shore special.

None of these lately

So we broke all time river crests through North Central IN down to Northern Indy last week. Now a rain train is setting up to dump again. I'm already pushing 13 inches for the last week, 90% came on Thurs thru Fri night. Insane.

Sure jan

Been a warm August so far... Have had five 90+° days and five 88° days including today.

Yes. We do.

Matches the WPC forecast almost perfectly

??? No we dont

Same winners as usual. If you consider getting rained on a win.

If that low somehow hangs around and maybe teams up with the Saturday thing like some models show then perhaps we get decent rains. I just have a hard time buying those amounts when I’m sure that complex tomorrows drives the moisture south.

Vortex with the tough love for Scoot. Laying himself down like a bridge over troubled waters.

I just gave you my reasons. Time and time again this happens in these setups.

Doesn't look good for you.

I will be drawing some blood if I don’t get more rain soon.

You say that amwx currently is a denier board but from flipping back it looks like denialism used to be a much greater issue here. Now the worst we’ve got is one dude thinking his county deserves an entire thread and a smattering of New England posters who quickly get shut down with actual info. Progress!

I-95 special