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I'm seeing the Euro and the Google models develop the mandarin into a potent hurricane. I wonder if the lemon and mandarin could possibly merge. What are your thoughts?

Model noise most likely. Most ensembles have nothing there with the focus on the SW Atlantic over the next week to ten days.

Has anyone seen the 18z GFS slabbering NE?

Why is the 18z GFS showing a Gulf storm out of nowhere?

D***I guess they are gonna let the ridiculousness on the site continue until there's nothing left. I've been stopping it in the last couple days hoping to hear some opinions on next week's rain chances. Even when we had whispers of a possible cutoff, energy this place was crickets. I haven't been posting at all so what's the excuse now ? Never mind.

double supercells near Dallas with 2" hail north of Denton reported

Welcome! Where exactly are you? What’s the new job?

Apparently canceling my lawn service and not watering my lawn this summer has invited Yellowjackets to build a nest IN my lawn. I unfortunately discovered this when attempting to mow the sparsely grown tan lawn covered in leaves this evening. Apparently I unknowingly mowed right over this Yellowjacket construction site. I first got stung on my elbow. Thought it was a mosquito. Then I got stung THROUGH my t-shirt. Then on my hand. Then again through my shirt. Of course I start doing a weird rendition of a rain dance of some sort. My neighbors clearly think I've lost it. I try to play it cool, all the while being attacked by these invaders. I go inside for safety. One stings me on my hand again, IN the house. I take off my t-shirt. Thinking I'm safe, I go upstairs. A Yellowjacket. I go in my room. A Yellowjacket. They hitched a ride on my clothes? I killed a total of 6 in my house. Thankfully it was easy because they fly to the windows and just crawl around. Easy targets. I think they got them all. Google says to douse them with a mixture of water and dish soap to drowned out the nest. I will also start up the water sprinkler, which needs batteries because I didn't use it all summer. I will let that run until the grass is nice and soaked, which will also drown out the nest. Meanwhile, my lawn is half mowed. lol It will rain that way until I'm sure it's clear. I have a nice credit on my water bill because I didn't water my lawn. I have a few extra gallons to spare.

Im feeling this

18z GEFS has some members come up but all on the weak side

Merrill was shaking on that final play... I thought he may pull a Harry K and die what he loved doing as well... https://www.facebook.com/share/r/1G9Z4nhipJ/

GFS with a tropical threat. Patterns sort of supports it with cutoff low near the SE

its ya but run after run has been trying.. only a week out at this point.. some AI models also have it.. perfect track at 18z just need it stronger

Really got shafted on that round of rain. It rained all afternoon to my north and west by a few miles. Then it kind of split and redeveloped just to my south and east. I got about 100 drops so far.

71 today. Was snotty in the sound with the east wind but my son caught his first fish. He’s now a fisherman for life

Usually when it’s the GFS versus everyone else, the GFS loses. .

we tropical next weekend?

GFS vs everything else?

Just recently moved here for a new job fresh out of graduate school. Anyone got recommendations of things to do for someone that is new to the area. Thanks!

18z GFS not backing down

Gabby is now a hurricane after undergoing RI, and is forecast to become a major. Huge for my forecast. The models are also bullish on the central Atlantic wave developing, and possibly the leading wave. We’ll see if that trend continues but it’s a good look so far for my forecast…

There’s no need for a thread quite yet imo. It does look like conditions are becoming more favorable in the western Atlantic. It’ll be interesting to see if the trend toward the leading wave and central Atlantic area continues to move toward development.

Now forecast to briefly become a major. While the structure of Gabrielle on geostationary satellite is still a little ragged with warmer cloud tops than this morning, it has become more axis-symmetric, and a recent AMSR2 microwave pass at 1733 UTC indicates a thicker 37-GHz cyan ring than the one observed this morning. 18 UTC DTOPS guidance, which did well predicting Erin's rapid intensification period earlier this year, is now indicating a 62 to 76 percent chance of a 30 kt increase in intensity over the next 24 h. Thus, I see no reason to not forecast continued steady to rapid intensification over the next 24-36 h, which is in line with the higher end of the intensity guidance, but not as high as the most recent HAFS-A run. After 36 h, SHIPS guidance shows southwesterly shear steadily increasing, and this should lead to steady weakening through the end of the forecast period. There is still some question as to Gabrielle's structure at the end of the forecast and whether it will be losing tropical characteristics. The southward shift in the forecast track suggests it might hang on to tropical characteristics a little longer than originally expected. The intensity forecast falls back close to the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids by the end of the forecast period.

Watch us have a week of clouds with only a few winners in the rainfall department. This set up seems rather hit or miss. Would really like one day that's a regionwide soaker.

Dendy???