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I didn't realize you've been out of work. Sorry to hear that and good luck on landing something soon.

Snowing at the top of the 'loaf:

Good luck figuring out Simon's track. If you haven't, please check out today's model guidance for the system...

If we have a +QBO, then November (at least the beginning of the month) is going to be very warm in the Eastern US. The last 3 +QBO years (2020, 2022, and 2024) all featured record warmth in the early part of November.

Well this is Belmont NH near LCI around 1k I think, but yeah I hear ya lol.

October 13 1917: Record low temperatures occur across central Minnesota with temperatures ranging from the low to mid teens to the upper teens and lower 20s. St. Cloud records the coldest temperature of 10 degrees, while Mora records a low of 13. 1880: An early blizzard strikes parts of southwest and west central Minnesota. Huge drifts exceeding 20 ft in the Canby area would last until the following spring. 1820: A snowstorm at Ft. Snelling dumps 11 inches. For Tuesday, October 13, 2026 1846 - A great hurricane tracked across Cuba, Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, Virginia and Pennsylvania. The hurricane inflicted major damage along its entire path, which was similar to the path of Hurricane Hazel 108 years later. The hurricane caused great damage at Key West FL, and at Philadelphia PA it was the most destructive storm in thirty years. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1986 - Four tornadoes struck southeastern Virginia late in the night causing three million dollars damage. Tornadoes at Falls Church VA caused a million dollars damage. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders) 1987 - Fifteen cities in the eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Record lows included 34 degrees at Meridian MS, 28 degrees at Paducah KY, and 26 degrees at Beckley WV. Another surge of arctic air entered the north central U.S. bringing snow to parts of Wyoming and Colorado. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - A total of forty-three cities in the eastern U.S. and the Upper Midwest reported record low temperatures for the date, including Elkins WV and Marquette MI where the mercury dipped to 18 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Sixteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date as readings warmed into the 80s and low 90s from the Southern and Central Plains to the Southern and Middle Atlantic Coast. Evansville IND and North Platte NE reported record highs of 91 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) Observances: 13 Tue National Train Your Brain Day 13 Tue Ada Lovelace Day 13 Tue Navy Birthday 13 Tue National No Bra Day 13 Tue International Day for Disaster Risk Reduction 13 Tue World Thrombosis Day 13 Tue Breast Cancer Awareness Day 13 Tue Disaster Day 13 Tue International Civility For the Girl Child Day 13 Tue International Day for Failure 13 Tue International Day for Natural Disaster Reduction 13 Tue International Skeptics Day 13 Tue Iris Film Festival 13 Tue National M&M Day 13 Tue National Transfer Money to Your Son Day 13 Tue Herpes Awareness Day

is this true or Bob's BS ?

Hell ... gon' be Georgian climate in a couple o coffee breaks so may as well get ahead of the investment curve.

Clear skies with filtered sun, but a light, misty fog has rolled in. 54F

Gonna freeze up Kevin maybe too.

Stone mtn farm in Belmont is putting in peaches next year. Thought of you when I heard that.

Wish the hard freeze would hold off longer. I still have a couple of unripe fruit on the trees. Under -12C 850s on the gfs. Terrible.

This is being updated: 30MB: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index 50MB: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u50.index

Now 11 confirmed tornadoes on Sunday in NC from Isaias, making it the second largest tornado outbreak from a tropical system in the states history. First place? Also Isaias (12) from 2020… Surveys are still ongoing so there’s a chance that number increases Also, believe this moves the event into the top 6 single day largest tornado outbreaks in the states history. All this with a level 2 (slight) risk. With all the recent fails during level 3 and 4 risk days it is almost fitting to set tornado records on a slight risk day.

I'm convinced their EMI product is garbage this season....it's been trying to flip this into a central-based event since last summer, along with the CANSIPS, and they both just continue can-kicking.

Is this copyright protected?

You know you've entered Fall (or Spring) when MAV/MET differ by 7-8-9°F or more on forecast high temps (particularly when a warmer than average llvl airmass is in place).

Too bad he copyrighted it...I wanted to steal that forecast, said no one with a modicum of genuine meteorological insight.

Totally agree on the CANSIPS.

Agree on 2015 being strongest....nice solar match, as well...like 2014 was last year, but I didn't explicitly use it as an analog due to ENSO, but it definitely informed my expectation for strong +TNH last season.

I wasn't doubting +QBO......just saying, I would like a streamline of homogenous data.