yoda

SLGT risk still for areas east of the i81 corridor up to the Mason-Dixon line on the new day 1... 2/5/15

Updated HWO from just before 2pm still hitting hard for tomorrow DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and large hail are likely Thursday afternoon. There is the potential for considerable wind damage from 70 mph gusts and large hail. Special Marine Warnings may be needed for portions of the waters Thursday for strong to severe storms capable of producing wind gusts over 34 knots and large hail. Heavy rainfall Thursday could result in isolated instances of flooding.

Right near KIAD

06z NAM NEST is flagging PDS TOR soundings with the supercells it develops Thursday evening in N MD lol

2/15/15 on new Day 2 for Thursday

45% hatched wind and hail on new Day 1

00z NAM NEST has some strong parameters between 18z Thursday and 01z Friday near DC metro down into C VA including EZF into S MD

Well they are still hitting it hard in the HWO Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 657 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508- VAZ053>057-527-081100- Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD- Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA- Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD- Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD- Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA- Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor- Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay- Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River- Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD- Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard- Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 657 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail are possible Wednesday afternoon. There is the potential for considerable storm damage from 70 mph gusts and large hail, but confidence is low at this time. Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail are likely Thursday afternoon. There is the potential for considerable wind damage from 70 mph gusts and large hail. Special Marine Warnings may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday and Thursday for strong to severe storms capable of producing wind gusts over 35 knots and hail. Heavy rainfall Wednesday through Thursday could result in isolated to scattered instances of flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 AM CDT Tue May 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Ohio Valley today. A few tornadoes, potentially strong, large to very large hail, and severe/damaging winds all appear possible. ...Ohio Valley... Plains upper trough will eject northeast across the mid/upper MS Valley early in the period as 80+kt 500mb speed max translates from northern OK into western IL by 18z, then into extreme southwest MI by early evening. Primary corridor of mid-level height falls will spread north of this jet, though 30-60m, 12hr falls are expected as far south as I-70 across IN/OH during the expected convective cycle. In response to this short wave, southwesterly LLJ will shift into IL/IN by 18z, then into the mid OH Valley by late afternoon. This evolution will encourage considerable moistening early in the period and buoyancy will increase markedly by mid day within a strongly sheared, but deep southwesterly flow regime. Current thinking is ongoing convection, associated with this trough, will propagate into the mid MS Valley by daybreak, then advance downstream with some propensity for weakening during the morning. However, boundary-layer heating after this initial activity will result in a modest-strongly unstable air mass by early afternoon. Convective temperatures will be easily breached as readings warm through the 70s to near 80F, and isolated-scattered thunderstorms should evolve along the southern fringe of the main jet core. Forecast soundings across the OH Valley exhibit favorable shear/buoyancy for supercells, especially given the steep lapse rates. Storms that evolve within this environment will likely remain discrete, or perhaps evolve into some clusters. Tornadoes, a few strong, are possible along with very large hail. Some damaging winds are also possible.

New Day 1 has increased the size of the ENH risk and the hatched 10% tor

00z NAM NEST is pretty bullish for Wednesday afternoon looking at soundings and supercell composite

Even mentioned widespread severe threat potential for Wednesday in the AFD... SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A stalled front nearby will maintain unsettled weather conditions heading into the middle of the workweek. Additional chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms exists each afternoon although the threat for organized severe weather threat remains low. Tuesday will feature brief mid-level ridging which should suppress convection briefly before an approaching trough reignites the threat Wednesday into Thursday. Convection will be of the pulse variety or loosely organized Tuesday given abundant cloud cover/convective debris over the region. More of a focus turns toward Tuesday night as a complex of storms will eject out of the Ohio River Valley. This convection will be in it`s decaying phase as it works eastward heading into Wednesday morning and could become a key player into how the severe weather and hydro threat pan out Wednesday afternoon. On Wednesday, the instability in the atmosphere will be greater given a few more breaks in the clouds due in part to west to southwest flow. This will allow for some downsloping and compressional warming especially east of the Blue Ridge. The combination of downsloping flow and subtle subsidence in the wake of the decaying MCS Wednesday morning may inhibit a widespread severe threat especially along and north of the I-66/US-50 corridor. EVen with that said, scattered strong to severe storms remain possible with the biggest concerns west of Blue Ridge. The primary threat for storms over the next two days will be damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall. Large hail up to 1" in diameter is also possible. Temperatures will reach into the upper 70s and lower 80s on Tuesday. Even warmer temperatures are expected on Wednesday, with highs reaching into the mid-upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Unsettled weather continues through the end of the week as a wave of low pressure develops over the area Thursday, then quickly pushes northeast Thursday night. This is followed by a passing cold front Friday. Expect several rounds of showers and thunderstorms to cross the area, especially Thursday afternoon/evening. Starting Thursday morning, widespread showers and storms are likely to be ongoing around sunrise over the western half of the area as a complex of storms from WV moves eastward. This early day convection wanes and mostly dissipates by late morning. The big uncertainty for Thursday will be how much instability can develop in the afternoon, before the next round of storms develops. The ingredients are there for severe storms to develop if we get instability that can combine with forcing for ascent from the passing upper trough to the north and bulk shear of 40-50 knots. SPC has placed areas east of the Blue Ridge on a Day 4 Slight Risk for severe storms. Lingering showers/storms Thursday evening dissipate after midnight, with mostly dry and slightly muggy conditions overnight.

For both Wednesday and Thursday... am also a bit surprised how bullish Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1033 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508- VAZ053>057-527-080245- Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD- Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA- Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD- Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD- Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA- Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor- Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay- Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River- Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD- Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard- Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 1033 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail are possible Wednesday afternoon. There is the potential for considerable storm damage from 70 mph gusts and large hail, but confidence is low at this time. Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and hail are likely Thursday afternoon. There is the potential for considerable wind damage from 70 mph gusts and large hail. Special Marine Warnings may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday and Thursday for strong to severe storms capable of producing wind gusts over 35 knots and hail. Heavy rainfall Wednesday through Thursday could result in isolated to scattered instances of flooding.

ay 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe weather with multiple strong, long-tracked tornadoes, as well as very large hail and severe thunderstorm gusts, is expected over parts of the south-central Plains from this afternoon through evening. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a strong synoptic-scale trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery from the northern Rockies, through a low over northeastern UT, then southward to the international border near the AZ/NM line. The main 500-mb low should pivot northeastward toward the Black Hills and deepen by 00Z, with trough northwestward over central MT and southward across eastern parts of CO/NM. A basal shortwave trough -- now from central CO to the Four Corners area -- should swing northeastward then northward, reaching southern SD, western NE and eastern CO by 00Z. This perturbation then should shift northeastward, possibly merging with convectively generated vorticity over NE and SD this evening and tonight, and reaching eastern SD, southwestern MN and IA by 12Z. A weaker, but still influential perturbation -- now over parts of southern NV/northern AZ -- should make a net eastward shift to parts of northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle by 00Z, reaching southern KS and northern OK by 12Z. Associated substantial height falls and DCVA should remain over and north of the Red River Valley through this evening. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure was analyzed on the 11Z chart over eastern WY, with Pacific cold front across eastern CO and northeastern/north-central NM. A dryline extended from the front over southeastern CO to eastern NM and the TX Trans-Pecos region, and should mix eastward to southwestern KS, eastern OK/TX Panhandles, and west-central/southwest TX by late afternoon. The cold front should overtake the dryline across the central Plains through the afternoon, then over OK overnight. A developing/synoptic warm-frontal zone was apparent from southeastern WY across central KS to southern MO, and should move northeastward to the lower/mid Missouri Valley through the period. The southern warm front -- demarcating the northern rim of a richly moist Gulf airmass from outflow-modified air, was drawn near the Red River from the Arklatex to the southeastern TX Panhandle. This boundary will shift northward through OK and much of KS today while becoming diffuse, and possibly catching up to the northern warm front. ...OK, Southern KS, Red River region... Thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid/late afternoon along and ahead of the dryline, near the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK line or 100W longitude into southern KS, then strengthen quickly to severe levels as they move eastward. Given the already very favorable parameter space by late afternoon, and increasingly so into early/mid evening, the concern is high for at least a few cyclic, tornadic supercells producing multiple significant tornadoes along potentially long paths. The threat for such tornadoes, as well as very large/destructive hail, will be maintained well into the late evening, and may even increase as hodographs further enlarge beneath the LLJ. Some uncertainty lingers as to how many such supercells will track across the outlook area, but given the unusually favorable environment and increasing confidence, a "high risk" outlook is warranted for areas between roughly the I-40 corridor in OK and the US-54/500 corridor in southern KS. Compared to farther north in KS, the environment will feature slightly stronger CINH, very rich low-level moisture (dewpoints commonly upper 60s to low 70s F), lack of frontal forcing (mainly dryline instead), and more orthogonal mean-wind/deep-shear vectors relative to the boundary. The 12Z FWD sounding sampled the richly moist and deep boundary layer that will be shifting northward across OK today, with mean mixing ratio of 15 g/kg. As low clouds erode in the moist sector from west-east, diabatic heating will boost MLCAPE into the 2500-4000 J/kg range over western/central OK and southern/ central KS, and contribute to greater potential for discrete supercells to develop and last a few hours before potential major upscale evolution to lines or clusters this evening. Hodographs will be favorable for tornadoes soon after initiation, and enlarge further ahead of the activity with time. Effective SRH commonly around 200-300 J/kg is expected late this afternoon and 300-500 J/kg after 00Z, amidst strengthening LLJ and deep shear (effective-shear magnitudes reaching 45-60 kt). Effective-layer STP in the 5-12 range may be realized for a few hours this evening across parts of OK and southern KS. Stronger MLCINH and weaker large-scale support will contribute to lesser storm coverage with southward extent over southern OK, though significant tornadoes and damaging hail may be possible from any that form. The corridor of favorable buoyancy will enlarge eastward this evening with continued moisture transport/advection, helping to maintain surface-based effective-inflow parcels well eastward into the Ozarks and vicinity to maintain eventual upscale growth, possibly linking with the southern part of QLCS activity sweeping across the Missouri Valley region. ...Central Plains... Thunderstorms should develop as early as midday to early afternoon over portions of western KS and southwestern NE, where CINH will be weakest, as the southern part of the front overtakes the dryline and impinges on a rapidly destabilizing/moistening sector to the east. Initial supercell mode is possible, with tornadoes (some strong), large to very large hail and damaging gusts all possible. With time this afternoon into evening, a more quasi-linear storm mode may evolve as the influence of frontal forcing increases, versus some component of flow across the boundary. As that occurs, tornadoes still will be possible, and the hail threat will transition to severe wind with eastward extent. Some significant (near 75 mph or higher) gusts will be possible as the momentum of stronger flow aloft gets transported to the surface, with increasing forced ascent along the leading edge of the complex. 60s F surface dewpoints will overspread a northward-narrowing sector across much of KS and NE today, contributing to peak/preconvective MLCAPE increasing into the 2000-3000 J/kg range, as deep shear strengthens, and hodographs extend, while maintaining favorable curvature.