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Winter storm threat disc 1/25/13-1/26/13


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#1191
ag3

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Don't forget 2006-2008 was followed up by 2009-2011 which had great Dec-Jan. And 95-96 was sandwhiched between another bad stretch.


93-94 was a fabulous winter also.

#1192
IsentropicLift

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93-94 was a fabulous winter also.

The sooner people realize that a multi-year stretch without a KU is the norm around here the better off they will be. 3 KU's in one year is like winning the lottery three times in one year.



#1193
Allsnow

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Hr 30 euro looks a little more robust then 00z . Hopefully it does not get sheared out

#1194
Allsnow

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Hr 36 light snow for everyone. Looks euro will be sim to nam

#1195
Allsnow

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Euro about .1 for NYC. Looks identical to 12z nam

#1196
rossi

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How does C NJ around freehold look?
Rossi

#1197
forkyfork

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We only had about 0.1" of liquid with Monday's event, ended up with around 3" of snow. 850's are even colder for this event. NAM has 850's around -15, last time it was around -10.


clearly you don't know enough about ratios to post about them. there are multiple factors which determine snow to liquid ratios and just looking at 850 temps won't tell you enough

#1198
PB GFI

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How does C NJ around freehold look?
Rossi

looks close to .15 ish

Saw TTN .16 - so I am guessing you can head east with that .

#1199
forkyfork

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I will wait and see what happens tomorrow before giving up.


with that logic what's the point of looking at any event past day 1?

#1200
TWCCraig

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clearly you don't know enough about ratios to post about them. there are multiple factors which determine snow to liquid ratios and just looking at 850 temps won't tell you enough

You're right. Never said I was a snow ratio guru. Most of the time I ask others.  So what's your opinion on the ratios with this event?



#1201
ag3

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12z Euro totals. Very similar to the 12z NAM:

 

NYC: .10"
JFK: .10"
ISP: .12"
FOK: .12"
BDR: .08"
EWR: .10"
 



#1202
Metsfan

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For good snow ratios there needs to be saturation up to the dendritic snow growth region (-12 to -15 degrees C) with good omega(lift) within that region.



#1203
Snow88

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Good to see the Euro come in slightly wetter. Looks like a 1-3 inch event in the making.



#1204
irishbri74

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id be very worried about dry air/ virga storm up your way. we're worried about it down here in philly.

#1205
NorthShoreWx

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We only had about 0.1" of liquid with Monday's event, ended up with around 3" of snow. 850's are even colder for this event. NAM has 850's around -15, last time it was around -10.

Just to your north we ended up with a dusting that mostly evaporated the next morning.



#1206
Snow88

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Latest from Upton

models continue to show a rather benign winter weather event for 
late Friday int Friday night as another low pressure system develops off 
the middle Atlantic coast. A positively tilted upper trough will allow 
short wave energy and the associated surface low to track quickly east of 
the area Friday night before the system has a chance to rapidly 
deepen. Most of the guidance produces around a tenth of an inch 
of liquid...which could result in a 1 to 2 inch snowfall. 


Clouds will increase on Friday with the potential for light snow 
by after...with the best chance being in the evening hours. Similar 
to the system earlier in the week...steep middle level lapse rates 
and deep-layered lift will produce light snow or snow showers. As 
the offshore low develops...coastal areas may be able to tap in on 
a bit more moisture with slightly higher amounts. In either 
case...this event looks to be below advisory levels.



#1207
LongBeachSurfFreak

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Ill take an inch and run, 4 inches for the week in the historically least snowy part of the metro is pretty solid. The canals and bay are starting to freeze and with a nice white snow cover always makes for a great sight.

As much as this event will not be as much as a feast or famine event like the mlk with super banding there will always be winners and losers in snow events. I think most see an inch and someone gets a lucky 3.



#1208
famartin

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No change to my guess for TTN from yesterday, 1-3".



#1209
IsentropicLift

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Ill take an inch and run, 4 inches for the week in the historically least snowy part of the metro is pretty solid. The canals and bay are starting to freeze and with a nice white snow cover always makes for a great sight.

As much as this event will not be as much as a feast or famine event like the mlk with super banding there will always be winners and losers in snow events. I think most see an inch and someone gets a lucky 3.

I predict a lot of :weenie: suicides tommorrow night when the radar shows 30 dbz over the area and nothing makes it to the surface.



#1210
IsentropicLift

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UKMET is very dry for everyone

 

f36.gif

f42.gif



#1211
IsentropicLift

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From KU event to snow showers in 48 hours

 

CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_48HR.gif



#1212
green tube

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id be very worried about dry air/ virga storm up your way. we're worried about it down here in philly.

 

 

i'm not worried about anything when the max potential is 1.5 inches of snow.



#1213
WintersGrasp

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id be very worried about dry air/ virga storm up your way. we're worried about it down here in philly.


i'm not worried about anything when the max potential is 1.5 inches of snow.


Kinda my thinking...I'd like to get the inch or so but id rather get nothing than miss out on a big storm to my south

#1214
IsentropicLift

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For everyones viewing pleasure I bring you the 12z GFS bufkit

 

KMMU - 1.0" of snow on 20:1 ratios

 

130125/2100Z  33  23007KT  21.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
130126/0000Z  36  22006KT  17.1F  SNOW   20:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039   20:1|  0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130126/0300Z  39  27003KT  16.4F  SNOW   20:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010   20:1|  1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05  100|  0|  0
130126/0600Z  42  32004KT  16.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   20:1|  1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05    0|  0|  0
 

KSWF - 0.5" of snow on 13-14:1 ratios

 

130125/2100Z  33  20003KT  17.9F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
130126/0000Z  36  19004KT  15.3F  SNOW   13:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025   13:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130126/0300Z  39  22004KT  13.0F  SNOW   16:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013   14:1|  0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04  100|  0|  0
130126/0600Z  42  VRB02KT   8.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   14:1|  0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04    0|  0|  0
 

KLGA - 0.7" of snow on 20:1 ratios

 

130125/2100Z  33  24008KT  23.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
130126/0000Z  36  24008KT  19.8F  SNOW   20:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022   20:1|  0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130126/0300Z  39  27006KT  20.2F  SNOW   21:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015   20:1|  0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04  100|  0|  0
130126/0600Z  42  31007KT  19.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   20:1|  0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04    0|  0|  0
 

KJFK - 0.9" on 21:1 ratios

 

130125/2100Z  33  24008KT  23.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
130126/0000Z  36  24008KT  19.8F  SNOW   21:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027   21:1|  0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130126/0300Z  39  27006KT  20.0F  SNOW   21:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.018   21:1|  0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04  100|  0|  0
130126/0600Z  42  31007KT  19.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   21:1|  0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04    0|  0|  0
 

KTTN - 1.3" on 20:1

 

130125/1800Z  30  24004KT  19.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
130125/2100Z  33  22006KT  17.3F  SNOW   20:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007   20:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0
130126/0000Z  36  19005KT  15.7F  SNOW   20:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054   20:1|  1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130126/0300Z  39  VRB00KT  14.4F  SNOW   22:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007   20:1|  1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07  100|  0|  0
130126/0600Z  42  35003KT  15.7F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   20:1|  1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07    0|  0|  0
130126/0900Z  45  33005KT  16.2F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   20:1|  1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07    0|  0|  0
 

KACY 0.9" on 17:1

 

130126/0000Z  36  27003KT  22.0F  SNOW   18:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026   18:1|  0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
130126/0300Z  39  29004KT  22.9F  SNOW   17:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026   17:1|  0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05  100|  0|  0
130126/0600Z  42  33006KT  21.5F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   17:1|  0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05    0|  0|  0
130126/0900Z  45  33005KT  18.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   17:1|  0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05    0|  0|  0
130126/1200Z  48  32007KT  16.8F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
 

The NAM numbers were about 50 percent higher NW and 300 percent higher south.



#1215
green tube

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Kinda my thinking...I'd like to get the inch or so but id rather get nothing than miss out on a big storm to my south

 

lol.... exactly.  agree 100%.



#1216
Snowlover123

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Criteria for advisory level snows in a 12 hour timeframe. Based off of this, Mt. Holly may issue advisories for many in NJ, since they are predicting 2-3" of snow for many locations in their hourly chart. 12HourSnowAdvisoryCriteria.gif

#1217
IsentropicLift

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Criteria for advisory level snows in a 12 hour timeframe. Based off of this, Mt. Holly may issue advisories for many in NJ, since they are predicting 2-3" of snow for many locations in their hourly chart. 12HourSnowAdvisoryCriteria.gif

NoSnowExpected1.png



#1218
famartin

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Criteria for advisory level snows in a 12 hour timeframe. Based off of this, Mt. Holly may issue advisories for many in NJ, since they are predicting 2-3" of snow for many locations in their hourly chart. 12HourSnowAdvisoryCriteria.gif

NoSnowExpected1.png

 

Day2Snow.png



#1219
WintersGrasp

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New NAM actually shifts the precip south again maybe 50-100 miles. Now the inch line is around PHL and Atlantic city and NYC maybe a couple snow showers

#1220
jm1220

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I predict a lot of :weenie: suicides tommorrow night when the radar shows 30 dbz over the area and nothing makes it to the surface.

There's a lot of dry air that has to be overcome-this shouldn't be a surprise to anybody. I still think there could be some enhancement especially along the coast but this looks minor at best. I'd say as an average an inch or so.



#1221
IsentropicLift

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Day2Snow.png

Where did you get that? I went to the Mt. Holly site and posted what I see?



#1222
TWCCraig

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SREF's a little wetter. 0.1" line right along the south shore of LI



#1223
Snow88

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The 0z runs should be telling .



#1224
ag3

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Upton is expecting 20 to 1 ratios, according to their snow map.

 

Total precip map:

 

StormTotalQPFFcst.png



#1225
famartin

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Where did you get that? I went to the Mt. Holly site and posted what I see?

http://www.erh.noaa....WinterDSS.shtml

Scroll down all the way... though now they've updated the other one too.





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