538 replies to this topic

[Hoosier]

I don't know about y'all but I'm becoming intrigued by the big storm potential late month.  Hints of major amplification in that timeframe.

[snowstormcanuck]

Hoosier, on 17 February 2012 - 12:43 AM, said:

I don't know about y'all but I'm becoming intrigued by the big storm potential late month. Hints of major amplification in that timeframe.

Enjoy your severe.

[snowstormcanuck]

Maybe an 1"+ tonight with that clipperish system. There's actually decent model agreement.

[gosaints]

GFS continues to advertise an interesting storm in the 8 to 9 day range but can't help but notice that the flow is still racing.

[daddylonglegs]

GFS showing almost 1/2 inch of precip next Tuesday... Surface temps look a little warm for snow.

[KokomoWX]

gosaints, on 17 February 2012 - 08:08 AM, said:

GFS continues to advertise an interesting storm in the 8 to 9 day range but can't help but notice that the flow is still racing.

Either it will shear apart or race across at 70 MPH. What else is new?

[turtlehurricane]

Big flakes coming down, already have a dusting.

[turtlehurricane]

Radar looks like we're setting up for a train of snow showers. Nice surprise. Unless it gets too warm we could see a decent little accumulation.

http://tempest.aos.w...icompflash.html

[daddylonglegs]

Weird day...we've got clear blue skies, but we did have that fluff early this morning...

Not sure what happens...NWS has us cloudy all day, but visible says otherwise...at least right now.

[BeastFromtheEast]

turtlehurricane, on 17 February 2012 - 09:52 AM, said:

Radar looks like we're setting up for a train of snow showers. Nice surprise. Unless it gets too warm we could see a decent little accumulation.

http://tempest.aos.w...icompflash.html

Nice graphic from MKE re: those Snow Showers..
"Convective Snow Showers" "Heavy Snowfall at times" Nice...

[beavis1729]

Assuming no more days with lows < 18F at ORD during the rest of Feb. 2012 (I know it may be a stretch...but persistence may rule!), the following table is another sign of how remarkably warm this winter has been in Chicago:

Most number of days with lows < 18F at ORD (Dec. - Feb., 1959-present)
1. 73 (1976-77)
2. 67 (1981-82)
3. 65 (1977-78)
4. 61 (2008-09)
5. 58 (1962-63)

Fewest number of days with lows < 18F at ORD (Dec. - Feb., 1959-present)
1. 14 (2011-12)
2. 16 (1997-98)
3. 20 (2001-02)
4. 21 (1986-87)
5. 26 (1974-75)

[turtlehurricane]

It's ripping out there with only 20 dBZ reflectivity, 30-35 dBZ band approaching.

[beavis1729]

Geos - I truly appreciate your enthusiasm and love of winter as much as anyone, but you seem to regularly exaggerate your snow and temps in prior winters. You make it seem like you live in northern WI, as opposed to the northern suburbs of Chicago.

I would have replied in the other thread, but it was locked.

For example, you mentioned 8.6" of snow from Feb. 16 onward in 2011...but ORD only saw about 4".

Also, you mentioned that you've seen many Marches with more than half the days having 1"+ snow depth...but I've lived here 25 years (Carol Stream), and I can't recall ever seeing that. Of course I wish I had...but unfortunately, it just doesn't happen here. You referenced March 2008...but ORD only had 6 days of 1"+ snow depth during that month...which is way fewer than 50% of the days. And even if you got lucky that March...it is extremely rare to have a snow-covered March like that.

I realize you may see a bit more snow and cold relative to ORD...but it can't be that much different. If it really is, then I guess I have a lot to learn about the climate of the Chicago metro area. It pains me to say that, as I wish we would actually have consistent wintry weather here from Dec.-Mar...but it's not in the cards.

Nothing personal, honestly...and I know it may come off poorly on an internet forum!

[gosaints]

The GFS is advertizing a train of northern stream events next week. Hardly any moisture with any of them however and modified air as well.

[BeastFromtheEast]

beavis1729, on 17 February 2012 - 11:25 AM, said:

Geos - I truly appreciate your enthusiasm and love of winter as much as anyone, but you seem to regularly exaggerate your snow and temps in prior winters. You make it seem like you live in northern WI, as opposed to the northern suburbs of Chicago.

I would have replied in the other thread, but it was locked.

For example, you mentioned 8.6" of snow from Feb. 16 onward in 2011...but ORD only saw about 4".

Also, you mentioned that you've seen many Marches with more than half the days having 1"+ snow depth...but I've lived here 25 years (Carol Stream), and I can't recall ever seeing that. Of course I wish I had...but unfortunately, it just doesn't happen here. You referenced March 2008...but ORD only had 6 days of 1"+ snow depth during that month...which is way fewer than 50% of the days. And even if you got lucky that March...it is extremely rare to have a snow-covered March like that.

I realize you may see a bit more snow and cold relative to ORD...but it can't be that much different. If it really is, then I guess I have a lot to learn about the climate of the Chicago metro area. It pains me to say that, as I wish we would actually have consistent wintry weather here from Dec.-Mar...but it's not in the cards.

Nothing personal, honestly...and I know it may come off poorly on an internet forum!

Geos lives right near the State Line... He is closer to MKE than he is to Chicago FWIW.. He is in the Far Far Far "Northern Suburbs".. I'd suggest maybe checking out MKE's snowfall stats with those periods he talked about..

[turtlehurricane]

Biggest drawback of this event is the warm inflow into the convective showers from surrounding sunny regions. At the same time that's part of what's driving such good rates. Up to 34 °F with a southerly wind, so snow isn't sticking everywhere. I think that'll change in the heavy burst to come.

[Alek]

BeastFromtheEast, on 17 February 2012 - 11:29 AM, said:

Geos lives right near the State Line... He is closer to MKE than he is to Chicago FWIW.. He is in the Far Far Far "Northern Suburbs"..

the dude slant sticks, it's ok. His totals routinely are way off from maps put out by MKE and Chicago.

[daddylonglegs]

NWS now says sun today..

forecast fail.

[BeastFromtheEast]

turtlehurricane, on 17 February 2012 - 11:31 AM, said:

Biggest drawback of this event is the warm inflow into the convective showers from surrounding sunny regions. At the same time that's part of what's driving such good rates. Up to 34 °F with a southerly wind, so snow isn't sticking everywhere. I think that'll change in the heavy burst to come.

Nice Fatties falling here

[beavis1729]

BeastFromtheEast, on 17 February 2012 - 11:43 AM, said:

Nice Fatties falling here

Cool...gotta love these surprise convective events.

[Andy]

Hoosier, on 17 February 2012 - 12:43 AM, said:

I don't know about y'all but I'm becoming intrigued by the big storm potential late month.  Hints of major amplification in that timeframe.

Agreed. Both the GFS and euro have been hinting at a nice trough out west toward the end of the month for a couple of runs in a row now. Though, we have seen similar set ups before in the long range this year. Here's to hoping. The trend has certainly been toward more of a split flow as these events draw near.

[turtlehurricane]

BeastFromtheEast, on 17 February 2012 - 11:43 AM, said:

Nice Fatties falling here

Starting to see rogue flakes bigger than quarters as the high reflectivity band moves in.

[Snowstorms]

snowstormcanuck, on 17 February 2012 - 06:53 AM, said:

Maybe an 1"+ tonight with that clipperish system. There's actually decent model agreement.

With the way EC measures at YYZ you can almost certainly agree upon another record low is coming. Less than 20"..... unbelievable. Even the warmest of all Winters had at least one decent storm despite no cold. They still have 2.2mm of rain and a Trace of snow for Feb 11.

Even though 1931-32 was unbelievably warm we still got decent snowfall that year with one storm dumping 14", we somehow ended up getting 149.3cm (58.3") despite the daily mean being a good 5-7 degrees above normal for DJF. However the summer of 1932 was crap.

[wisconsinwx]

beavis1729, on 17 February 2012 - 11:25 AM, said:

Geos - I truly appreciate your enthusiasm and love of winter as much as anyone, but you seem to regularly exaggerate your snow and temps in prior winters. You make it seem like you live in northern WI, as opposed to the northern suburbs of Chicago.

I would have replied in the other thread, but it was locked.

For example, you mentioned 8.6" of snow from Feb. 16 onward in 2011...but ORD only saw about 4".

Also, you mentioned that you've seen many Marches with more than half the days having 1"+ snow depth...but I've lived here 25 years (Carol Stream), and I can't recall ever seeing that. Of course I wish I had...but unfortunately, it just doesn't happen here. You referenced March 2008...but ORD only had 6 days of 1"+ snow depth during that month...which is way fewer than 50% of the days. And even if you got lucky that March...it is extremely rare to have a snow-covered March like that.

I realize you may see a bit more snow and cold relative to ORD...but it can't be that much different. If it really is, then I guess I have a lot to learn about the climate of the Chicago metro area. It pains me to say that, as I wish we would actually have consistent wintry weather here from Dec.-Mar...but it's not in the cards.

Nothing personal, honestly...and I know it may come off poorly on an internet forum!

If he's talking about snow depth, I would agree he might be exaggerating, but he probably did better with the March 21, 2008 (Good Friday) storm; I think he was in Kenosha at the time as well, am I right Geos?

[andyhb]

Andy, on 17 February 2012 - 11:53 AM, said:

Agreed. Both the GFS and euro have been hinting at a nice trough out west toward the end of the month for a couple of runs in a row now. Though, we have seen similar set ups before in the long range this year. Here's to hoping. The trend has certainly been toward more of a split flow as these events draw near.

Growing tired of this pattern pretty quick.

[turtlehurricane]

We are getting blitzed.

[Geos]

beavis1729, on 17 February 2012 - 11:25 AM, said:

Geos - I truly appreciate your enthusiasm and love of winter as much as anyone, but you seem to regularly exaggerate your snow and temps in prior winters. You make it seem like you live in northern WI, as opposed to the northern suburbs of Chicago.

I would have replied in the other thread, but it was locked.

For example, you mentioned 8.6" of snow from Feb. 16 onward in 2011...but ORD only saw about 4".

Also, you mentioned that you've seen many Marches with more than half the days having 1"+ snow depth...but I've lived here 25 years (Carol Stream), and I can't recall ever seeing that. Of course I wish I had...but unfortunately, it just doesn't happen here. You referenced March 2008...but ORD only had 6 days of 1"+ snow depth during that month...which is way fewer than 50% of the days. And even if you got lucky that March...it is extremely rare to have a snow-covered March like that.

I realize you may see a bit more snow and cold relative to ORD...but it can't be that much different. If it really is, then I guess I have a lot to learn about the climate of the Chicago metro area. It pains me to say that, as I wish we would actually have consistent wintry weather here from Dec.-Mar...but it's not in the cards.

Nothing personal, honestly...and I know it may come off poorly on an internet forum!

I know things can seem off or out of sorts when you are typing online. I do by best to get me message across in the right context. I'm not trying to make it seem I live 300 miles further north then I do. I measure precipitation, temperatures, and note sky conditions everyday like the NWS does. Have been since early 1996. I have training in measuring precipitation. I don't doubt that some of my snowfall measure may be slightly off, but they are close! With the help of one of our Canadian posters I got my snowboard into an optimum location and got a few more tips on how to measure. (I think I received snowstormcanuck's tips)
There is definitely a difference in snowfall tallies between Carol Stream and here. Lake effect adds a bit to our seasonal total. Do you get much lake effect?

On the March topic. I did mean to say, "I've seen some March's with powdery snow and long snowcover". March 2008 was one of them. We had 13" right before Easter! I live near Waukegan (UGN), so you can double check with that station. I had 90 days of snow cover over an inch that winter. March usually isn't that snow covered, but it can happen and 2008 it happened. I have detailed excel documents with snow fall data - if you want to know about a particular snowfall event.
Before I got into my first college meteorology/atmospherics class, my measurements had a higher error rate, I'm sure. I would say within the last 5 years I've been really close to nearby NWS observers.

Last year between now and April 18th we had these snowfall events:

2/20-2/22: 2.2"
2/23: 0.2"
2/25-26: 0.8"
2/27-28: 0.5"
3/5: 0.9"
3/23-24: 1.0"
4/18: 3.0"

BeastFromtheEast, on 17 February 2012 - 11:29 AM, said:

Geos lives right near the State Line... He is closer to MKE than he is to Chicago FWIW.. He is in the Far Far Far "Northern Suburbs".. I'd suggest maybe checking out MKE's snowfall stats with those periods he talked about..

If I had a quarter for everytime I heard, "heavier snow along the stateline" or "heaviest snow in the northern suburbs" - I'd be rich! lol Sometime the snowstorms target right in between the cities, sometimes my seasonal total really gets a boost when there is lake effect.

Alek, on 17 February 2012 - 11:34 AM, said:

the dude slant sticks, it's ok. His totals routinely are way off from maps put out by MKE and Chicago.

Haha. I got my measuring technique matched up with the NWS technique now. I've only been here since November! I was 1.0+> off once!

[gosaints]

12z GFS back to more boring weeks ahead.

[Geos]

wisconsinwx, on 17 February 2012 - 12:40 PM, said:

If he's talking about snow depth, I would agree he might be exaggerating, but he probably did better with the March 21, 2008 (Good Friday) storm; I think he was in Kenosha at the time as well, am I right Geos?

I was in Kenosha that entire day/night. I measured the snow at home after the storm pulled out at about 7am in the morning. That snowfall lingered till about April 5th, when it got to 65.

Anyway, today: Heavy overcast currently. No 50° with no sun today. Looks like precipitation moving in.

[snowstormcanuck]

Geos biggest problem was he was clearing his board (or whatever sfc he was measuring on) too frequently. Now that he's moved to the standard 6 hour intervals, I think he'll be fine from here on out.

[snowstormcanuck]

Snowstorms, on 17 February 2012 - 12:24 PM, said:

With the way EC measures at YYZ you can almost certainly agree upon another record low is coming. Less than 20"..... unbelievable. Even the warmest of all Winters had at least one decent storm despite no cold. They still have 2.2mm of rain and a Trace of snow for Feb 11.

Even though 1931-32 was unbelievably warm we still got decent snowfall that year with one storm dumping 14", we somehow ended up getting 149.3cm (58.3") despite the daily mean being a good 5-7 degrees above normal for DJF. However the summer of 1932 was crap.

I'm in the process of sending out an email to them right now about Feb 11. They do make oopsies like that from time to time, but usually it's corrected within 3-4 days. If we're going to go for the futility record, we should at least make it legitimate. Although, even if they plug in 2.2cm of snow, that's still by far the lowest total in the city, and likely inaccurate.

[turtlehurricane]

Sun is fighting to come out, up to 300 W/M^2 of solar radiation. If it does this'll be the perfect day, what more could I ask for than heavy convective snow and sunshine.

[BeastFromtheEast]

MKE was down to .5 Vis with that last batch.. Very little accumulations though.. Looks like one more good batch about to move through..

[Geos]

snowstormcanuck, on 17 February 2012 - 01:14 PM, said:

Geos biggest problem was he was clearing his board (or whatever sfc he was measuring on) too frequently. Now that he's moved to the standard 6 hour intervals, I think he'll be fine from here on out.

Right. I was clearing every 4 hours.

Sun is fighting to come out here, but the clouds are fairly thick. Probably top out in the low 40s if it stays this way all day.

[wisconsinwx]

BeastFromtheEast, on 17 February 2012 - 01:41 PM, said:

MKE was down to .5 Vis with that last batch.. Very little accumulations though.. Looks like one more good batch about to move through..

Yep, looks like some pretty intense snow/mix moving into the northern half of the county.