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NNE Heart of Winter


Allenson

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Doesn't sound like the Advisory amounts panned out in Central VT... the Berkshires and southern VT look to be getting slammed right now due to that vort max going south.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...WELL...SOMETIMES THE BEST LAID PLANS OF

MICE AND MEN GO AWRY. WHILE THE NORTH COUNTRY SEEMED POISED TO

SEE SOME INTENSE SNOW SQUALLS AND ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT

FROM THE INTERACTION OF LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE AND AN INCOMING COLD

FRONT...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY DOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND

BROUGHT THE SNOW WITH IT. SOME AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF

THE REGION STILL SAW SOME SNOW ACTIVITY AND EVEN HEAVY AT TIMES

THOUGH ALBEIT BRIEF...JUST NOT IN THE AMOUNTS WE HAD PREVIOUSLY

FORECAST. STILL A FEW HEAVY BANDS NOTED ON THIS MORNINGS

COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF

THE GREEN MOUNTAINS UPSLOPE SNOWS HAVE ENSUED. BUT THIS ACTIVITY

WILL BE QUICKLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH

PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH A CLEARING TREND AND

SUNSHINE EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON. ANY LINGERING SNOW THIS

MORNING WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH. WITH

A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...DON`T EXPECT

TEMPS TO CHANGE MUCH FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW WITH HIGHS GENERALLY

IN THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO UPPER 20S SOUTH.

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Mountain got hit solidly last night.

3"-3.5" on the snow board at 1,500ft overnight, with 2" cleaned yesterday at 2pm...5.0" for a 24 hour total Groomers were reporting 4-6" overnight but I just didn't see it on the base area snow board so called it 3-4" overnight. Will be curious to see what is on the 3,000ft board. Lead groomer said at least 7" total at the Cliff House at 3,600ft so that's what I'm going with for 24 hour summit total at this point.

Looks awesome out there. 8" at the base in the last 72 hours, 12" last 4 days. 3,000ft and higher is now up to 16" last 4 days!

Edit: Dumping again at the mountain. This radar doesn't do this justice. Gotta be 1"/hr right now with inch big dendrites.

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Event totals: 3.5” Snow/0.14” L.E.

The snow from this latest event started at the house a bit after 10:00 P.M. last night, and a stronger push of moisture came through after midnight with some 30-35 db echoes:

30JAN12A.gif

When that surge of snowfall came in, snowflakes were in the ½” – 1” range, and the snowfall didn’t seem all that heavy (probably not quite 1”/hr) but it was dead still outside while it was falling and it was settling like some quality Champlain Powder™. This morning’s snow density analysis revealing 4% H2O for the snowboard stack speaks to that; that’s not outrageously dry for around here, but it should make for some sweet turns atop the previous round of snow from the past couple of days. That initial pulse of snow had slowed down and there was still well under an inch of snow on the snowboard when I headed off to bed sometime after 12:30 A.M. though, so there must have been a resurgence in snowfall at some point overnight. Overall the total snowfall did come right in the range forecast by the NWS for our area, although they have some comments in their forecast discussion suggesting things didn’t come together quite the way they had expected

On a seasonal note, this storm pushed snowfall for the month to 31.2”, so January ’12 has moved past January ’08 (27.6”) and January ’07 (30.5”), so it’s certainly not bottom of the barrel with respect to the past few seasons. Next up in that snowfall totals list is January ’10 (38.5”); I don’t think there’s much chance of getting to that number, although with the month running though tomorrow and looking at the forecast, there could be a shot at passing 70” on the season by the end of the month. We’re just a bit past the midpoint for snowfall based on my data, so that gives some sense of a potential season total if snowfall continued at the pace we’ve seen up to this point.

Below I’ve added the north to south list of the Vermont ski area’s snow totals that I’ve seen reported thus far. The highest totals are in the northern part of the state, although Bromley seemed to do a bit better than the other areas down south. I’m surprised that Smugg’s snowfall was a bit low relative to the other resorts along the northern spine, but with those totals, I would suspect skiing will be mighty fine today if the mountains weren’t pestered by winds:

Jay Peak: 8”

Burke: 4”

Smuggler’s Notch: 3”

Stowe: 7”

Bolton Valley: 7”

Mad River Glen: 4”

Sugarbush: 4”

Pico: 2”

Killington: 2”

Okemo: 2”

Bromley: 5”

Stratton: 1”

Mount Snow: 3”

Some details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations are below:

New Snow: 3.5 inches

New Liquid: 0.14 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 25.0

Snow Density: 4.0% H2O

Temperature: 26.4 F

Sky: Light Snow/Flurries (1-5 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 12.0 inches

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J.Spin... regarding Smuggs... its hard to tell on their website just how much they have had as they don't report in normal 24 hour periods.

They just said "3 inches overnight", but yesterday's 4pm update said, "2 inches today." My guess is they have at least 5" in the past 24 hours though I cannot figure out why they wouldn't want to just say 24 hour snowfall.

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Ended up falling asleep and then waking up about 30 minutes too late. There was a yellow pixel over Paugus Bay about 500 feet to my southwest and I missed it.

However it must have been mostly virga because there is no sign of snow unless you look really hard. This is like half a trace.

LCI's lowest visibility was 5 miles.

post-18-0-79254700-1327929847.gif

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Ended up falling asleep and then waking up about 30 minutes too late. There was a yellow pixel over Paugus Bay about 500 feet to my southwest and I missed it.

However it must have been mostly virga because there is no sign of snow unless you look really hard. This is like half a trace.

LCI's lowest visibility was 5 miles.

Yeah that first band was virga here. Another band came through after that with -SN. Boring.

Still spitting some flakes down here in CON.

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No complaints here, as the Friday storm gave me 6" of solid snowpack-builder, though crusty on top. However, since then I've gotten just the 20 flakes predawn Sunday. I heard 1-4" for this morning, but it either stayed south or dissipated. Maybe tomorrow's 1-3" will turn out better.

06z gfs totally boring, 1/3" total qpf over 16 days, no subnormal cold until day 11-12 (meaning this winter: never), and that's what's been showing for a couple days. Each of the last 3 winters there's been a 2-3 week total dead spot in Feb (actually it was 4 wks in 2010), so maybe I shouldn't be surprised if it happens again. I'd rather see a month like Feb 2008 with its 2-per-week SWFE.

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My morning snow report was dead wrong. I'm not sure I can really explain it but there's at least 7-9" up on the mountain.

Folks are ripping me all this morning for saying 3-4" overnight and 5-7" last 24 hours. I'll post pictures later but holy crap did Mansfield fluff machine come through.

As I, and most of us expected. Called for 8-12" by this morning for up there. Came in on the low end, but when you get 3" of essentially random upslope fluff yesterday and have a piece of decent energy coming through for the night time with 3-5" expected at lower elevations, you're bound to do well up top! :)

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My morning snow report was dead wrong. I'm not sure I can really explain it but there's at least 7-9" up on the mountain.

Folks are ripping me all this morning for saying 3-4" overnight and 5-7" last 24 hours. I'll post pictures later but holy crap did Mansfield fluff machine come through.

I have some pics from G that confirm it was WAY deep up high on the ridge.

I have no doubt that Mansfield got a solid 7 up top. overnight. Add that to the 3-4 that fell up there yesterday...very nice.

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I have some pics from G that confirm it was WAY deep up high on the ridge.

I have no doubt that Mansfield got a solid 7 up top. overnight. Add that to the 3-4 that fell up there yesterday...very nice.

Yeah not a bad day. Betting against Mansfield is like betting against Jordan back in the day... not recommended.

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I noticed Bolton Valley also under-reported this morning as they are now saying 9" as well.

It was a very weird storm in that it was very elevation dependent but not in a temperature way. I mean down here in town there was only 1-2" at 800ft... 1,300ft was more like 3-4"...but once you got above 2,000ft there was a real noticable difference. Then again at 3,000ft-4,000ft.

Remember, my snow stake and snow board is *only* at 3,000ft in the location indicated on the image below... in the woods below the High Road off Perry Merrill. This spot had 9" in the last 24 hours and is where I do my upper mountain snowfall measurements from. There's still over 600 vertical feet of trail above this location, and the Ridgeline is a full 1,000ft above that snow plot area. Summit is 1,400ft higher. So there very likely was more than 9" on those upper glades and chutes off the Ridgeline (other friends claimed up to a foot on the ridge), as well as more snow even at the Cliff House 600ft above the snow board.

Should have known it was going to be a good day when it was still snowing 1"/hr at 7am in that final burst.

Wandering through the woods at 5am by headlamp to check the snow stakes... I wonder how many animals I scare off back there.

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Event totals: 3.7” Snow/0.14” L.E.

I got home mid afternoon today and there was steady snow for a couple of hours; it was very light, but we did pick up an additional couple of tenths on the snowboard. The new 3 to 4 inches that we received down here from the storm certainly transformed the snowpack and gave it a softer disposition; the boys had some pretty fast & fluffy sledding tonight with that new stuff on top of the thicker layer below. I told them yesterday that the incoming fluff was going to change things, but last night’s sledding before the new snow was actually pretty fun as well. The best part was cutting out segments of that ~1” thick granular/crusty layer – it’s robust enough that if you’re careful you can get chunks out of there as large as 2’ x 2’. We’d set them up vertically in the path of one of the sledding runs, and you can imagine what happened after that. We set up some more tonight as well because the boys were so entertained, but it takes a lot more work clearing away all the new snow to get down to that layer now.

I noticed Bolton Valley also under-reported this morning as they are now saying 9" as well.

Thanks for the updates and clarifications on the snow totals PF, keep those clarifications coming anytime because I of course want to have the best possible numbers for the storm archives on our website. It’s weird the way Smugg’s does their reporting, but it seems that they updated their numbers today to some degree, along with many of the other areas. I updated the north to south 24-hour snow totals list below:

Jay Peak: 8”

Burke: 4”

Smuggler’s Notch: 6”

Stowe: 9”

Bolton Valley: 9”

Mad River Glen: 6”

Sugarbush: 5”

Pico: 3”

Killington: 3”

Okemo: 2”

Bromley: 5”

Magic Mountain: 1”

Stratton: 3”

Mount Snow: 3”

Some details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations are below:

New Snow: 0.2 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 21.6 F

Sky: Partly Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 11.0 inches

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0.5" of snow overnight as of 5:30am at 1,500ft... It looks like we should see a period of steadier snow sometime around midday today. RUC has been showing it moving through between 10am-2pm and you can see the echos near Lake Ontario that should continue to develop and lift through the north country.

1-3" looks quite likely today.

More daily snows... makes 5 days in a row.

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Event totals: 0.5” Snow/0.04” L.E.

There’s been light snow at the house this morning with a half inch of 8% H2O snow down on the board as of 6:00 A.M. As Powderfreak mentioned, snow is expected to continue through the day as this system moves into the area, with another 1-2” in the point forecast for our location. Here on the UVM campus in Burlington there are flurries in the air and it looks like about a half inch of new snow on the ground.

Some details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations are below:

New Snow: 0.5 inches

New Liquid: 0.04 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 12.5

Snow Density: 8.0% H2O

Temperature: 19.0 F

Sky: Light Snow/Flurries (2-5 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 11.0 inches

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