Tornado Girl Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 You can see the next Northeast snowstorm. coming on shore in the Pacific Northwest. This system should move into the upper Plains and then dive south Where it will move over the GOM. it will then move off the east coast of Florida or Georgia and proceed up the coast Impacting the Northeast on what looks like Wed or Thur. Lets hope we get a true Miller A This is a progression of 00z GFS showing the possible track and timing of the coastal next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Have the LP situated over Philadelphia and I will be a happy camper, is one inland runner thats east of the apps so hard to ask this year! NJ and the new englanders can share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Who knows if this holds on the GFS past one run, but what interests me is how the GFS gives birth to this storm south of N'Olreans in the Gulf. I don't recall seeing a true Miller A like this on the models in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Have the LP situated over Philadelphia and I will be a happy camper, is one inland runner thats east of the apps so hard to ask this year! NJ and the new englanders can share I hear you.....So far, the winter is a bust here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Who knows if this holds on the GFS past one run, but what interests me is how the GFS gives birth to this storm south of N'Olreans in the Gulf. I don't recall seeing a true Miller A like this on the models in a long time. I agree...If a Miller A does develop it will be interesting to watch. We will see what the other models have to say over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FitzWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Growing up in Boston, this is the classic storm set up I remember. Moisture laden storms coming up the coast from the Gulf. We have not seen many of these lately. Concerns of going out sea? Hope it works out for everyone on E. Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Man, could we just get one storm that tracks over southern Vermont into Maine giving us a foot of wind whipped snow? The same places keep getting snowed on! With the exception of 2000-2001, 2007-2008 and the first half of 2008-2009 it's been that way for the past decade! The late 70s were legendary for cold in the US and it looks like this era will be remembered for big snows. I mean, way to go Boston! I'm thinking Springfield will get 18". I better be careful what I wish for. I don't want snow on the 30th as I have a social gathering planned. Oh well, look on the bright side. At least we have snow cover. It looks like winter. Frigid weather is moving in which hsould pull our January mean temperature way down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I was reading Andy's blog where he had just started to look at the ECMWF(?) and how it is/ was the only model showing a storm and that it has held it's ground saying there will be a storm I don't care what the other models don't say.While I am not complaining, I am hopeful,us upper Hudson Valley peeps can get a blockbuster storm this time. We shall see what it brings or for that matter not brings to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Man, could we just get one storm that tracks over southern Vermont into Maine giving us a foot of wind whipped snow? The same places keep getting snowed on! With the exception of 2000-2001, 2007-2008 and the first half of 2008-2009 it's been that way for the past decade! The late 70s were legendary for cold in the US and it looks like this era will be remembered for big snows. I mean, way to go Boston! I'm thinking Springfield will get 18". I better be careful what I wish for. I don't want snow on the 30th as I have a social gathering planned. Oh well, look on the bright side. At least we have snow cover. It looks like winter. Frigid weather is moving in which hsould pull our January mean temperature way down. Just remember this is just one model showing the possible track...A lot can happen between now and then....But the way the winter has gone so far...well you get the idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 take a look at the Canadian, talk about eye candy for the deprived . I'm so rooting for the Miller A solution, its been so long, I've forgotten what they look like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Canadian Showing Tue. Canadian Showing Thur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Canadian Showing Tue. Canadian Showing Thur. GFS is also slower than the EC too. Trend this year so far has been for a faster onset to our events. So I am thinking that while the models are now going towards the EC solution of a storm ( a good thing) their next adjustments will be on timing. The high will be very strong with CP of 1034 mb or > and this will likely induce an inverted trough along the SEUS coast by Tuesday. This trough will in turn act as the "highway" for the system next week to move along it or redevelop in it (around Cape Lookout). The middle of next week system will most probably be one of those lows that has an overly extensive precip plume associated with it. That is to say the low will be down over the lower SEUS coast or FL Panhandle Tues Night with the northern edge of its precip shield already nearing NYC and SNE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Wow...What a great morning. Just took a quick look at the operations GFS 0z & 6z as well as the Euro 0z and I am very excited. After today's event I'm going to have to spend some time clearing snow off the roof before Wednesday gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 buffalo will be too far west like always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 buffalo will be too far west like always it looks like Ottawa will miss out too. This truly is an an epic snow drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 buffalo will be too far west like always Yeah, if this thing turns into a big storm and we're fringed or it's a wiff in WNY, I might have to make a snow chase to CNY. I'll pick you up on the way.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GFS is also slower than the EC too. Trend this year so far has been for a faster onset to our events. So I am thinking that while the models are now going towards the EC solution of a storm ( a good thing) their next adjustments will be on timing. The high will be very strong with CP of 1034 mb or > and this will likely induce an inverted trough along the SEUS coast by Tuesday. This trough will in turn act as the "highway" for the system next week to move along it or redevelop in it (around Cape Lookout). The middle of next week system will most probably be one of those lows that has an overly extensive precip plume associated with it. That is to say the low will be down over the lower SEUS coast or FL Panhandle Tues Night with the northern edge of its precip shield already nearing NYC and SNE! Andy with that being around Florida panhandle, is it possible for the storm to goto a mix due to the temps being warmer?,or is the cold we have, and the brutal cold about to come going to be enough to keep it snow? I am dreading the brutal cold on the way, it gets really busy at work and helping friends with diesels...... At least the money is decent ( when they can pay anyway) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yeah, if this thing turns into a big storm and we're fringed or it's a wiff in WNY, I might have to make a snow chase to CNY. I'll pick you up on the way.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 it looks like Ottawa will miss out too. This truly is an an epic snow drought. this is crazy lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Andy with that being around Florida panhandle, is it possible for the storm to goto a mix due to the temps being warmer?,or is the cold we have, and the brutal cold about to come going to be enough to keep it snow? I am dreading the brutal cold on the way, it gets really busy at work and helping friends with diesels...... At least the money is decent ( when they can pay anyway) The temps being warmer if indeed they turn out to be warmer will be a function of both the track of the storm wrt to how near or not near to the coast it is and also how strong it becomes. Even a strong storm taking a track towards RI or SE Mass could have some warmer air aloft circulating to the NW of the cyclone track over ENY and WNE causing mixing or change to sleet. Shadowing would be another issue to watch especially if the LL flow is more ESE to SE; this would cause downsloping and some warming in the column to the west of the Taconics, Greens and Berkshires. While not related to p-type issues but one that could impact snow amount (if precip was all snow) would be mesoscale snow bands and all the questions that arise about them: Where will they form? Will they be stationary or transitory? What type of bands? If you get into a band you could jackpot, then again these bands "steal" from the pot so to speak with lesser amounts on either side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 no doubt the ECM appears to be the big winner here (pending verification).... in a convoluted setup with a myriad of waves breaking off the pacific, it held its ground and kept indicating a big storm would form with a closed low developing over the US plains. with all the other modeling trending in the complete opposite at 12z yesterday (incluinng the GEM/ukie which has some marginal support for the ECM prior).....it was impressive to see the turnaround at 00z last night unanimously showing a major storm threat in the OV/east coast next week. reminds us of years past when it was the ECM we needed to look to in the midrange and allow the other models to come around. as for the storm itself....there are some good things....a +PNA will allow the storm to dig and amplify heights on the east coast enough to bring it north. the ridge out west looks suitably positioned....that was a big problem with the boxing day storm that served as a nice red flag. how far north though? enough to affect say places like buffalo, ottawa, toronto? of course this is where it gets murky. trough progression and confluence will be the issue to follow in the nearterm. as the storm gets going, the NAO is going negative again, though not overly, and is east-based....although some runs have tried to build it a little bit westward, worrisome. the PV needs to cooperate and move out of the way in time. normally, given all the above, its not actually a lot to ask for given the factors mentioned....and i would be fairly confident that enough changes would occur in the time before the storm to allow the storm to have a significant impact north and west given the setup. but not so sure this year. pessimism is a factor for sure, but the old adage 'it snows where it wants to snow'.....not very scientific, but for some reason it tends to work yr in and yr out. so i would approach the storm with extreme caution. currently would peg odds as follows (will update) at current based on previous set of model runs.....we are days and days away so these odds will change! chance ottawa sees >2 inches at <5% chance montreal sees >2 inches at 10% chance buffalo sees >2 inches at 10% in fact, there are enough early signals to indicate this could be the biggest, most serious trainwreck to date yet for the ottawa area which is in the midst of an impressive snow drought. i'm not saying that is what is going to happen, but it is a distinct chance, moreso than any previous storm in the past 2 years. it is possible that ALL areas in this forum see significant snow from this storm, except for those in the ottawa area. http://www.americanw...smysnow-thread/ a heads-up for those in the ottawa area. of course, at this range the storm could also be entirely gone on the 12z modeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 no doubt the ECM appears to be the big winner here (pending verification).... in a convoluted setup with a myriad of waves breaking off the pacific, it held its ground and kept indicating a big storm would form with a closed low developing over the US plains. with all the other modeling trending in the complete opposite at 12z yesterday (incluinng the GEM/ukie which has some marginal support for the ECM prior).....it was impressive to see the turnaround at 00z last night unanimously showing a major storm threat in the OV/east coast next week. reminds us of years past when it was the ECM we needed to look to in the midrange and allow the other models to come around. as for the storm itself....there are some good things....a +PNA will allow the storm to dig and amplify heights on the east coast enough to bring it north. the ridge out west looks suitably positioned....that was a big problem with the boxing day storm that served as a nice red flag. how far north though? enough to affect say places like buffalo, ottawa, toronto? of course this is where it gets murky. trough progression and confluence will be the issue to follow in the nearterm. as the storm gets going, the NAO is going negative again, though not overly, and is east-based....although some runs have tried to build it a little bit westward, worrisome. the PV needs to cooperate and move out of the way in time. normally, given all the above, its not actually a lot to ask for given the factors mentioned....and i would be fairly confident that enough changes would occur in the time before the storm to allow the storm to have a significant impact north and west given the setup. but not so sure this year. pessimism is a factor for sure, but the old adage 'it snows where it wants to snow'.....not very scientific, but for some reason it tends to work yr in and yr out. so i would approach the storm with extreme caution. currently would peg odds as follows (will update) at current based on previous set of model runs.....we are days and days away so these odds will change! chance ottawa sees >2 inches at <5% chance montreal sees >2 inches at 10% chance buffalo sees >2 inches at 10% in fact, there are enough early signals to indicate this could be the biggest, most serious trainwreck to date yet for the ottawa area which is in the midst of an impressive snow drought. i'm not saying that is what is going to happen, but it is a distinct chance, moreso than any previous storm in the past 2 years. it is possible that ALL areas in this forum see significant snow from this storm, except for those in the ottawa area. http://www.americanw...smysnow-thread/ a heads-up for those in the ottawa area. of course, at this range the storm could also be entirely gone on the 12z modeling let the NW trend begin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 just wanted to mention as an addendum that if the neg NAO can stay east-based and build westward but not overly so, then it could i assume allow the storm to be affect regions further west at least....though the north component im not so sure about as it gets to our lattitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Well, the 12Z GFS is still too far east for WNY to get in on the action...curious to see what the 12Z ECMWF does... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GGEM buries just about everyone in this region: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GGEM buries just about everyone in this region: does the GGEM have total qpf maps? 24, 36, 48hr qpf like the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Euro sounds like a big hit for portions of the interior, im not sure if it makes it up here with going ENE once it hits ches-bay area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 euro brings measurable precip to everyone in upstate, and S-central and SE NY get slammed.....18+ new england gets about 2-3 feet lol basicall everyone on a line from BTV-ART-ROC and points S and E gets 6+ inches of snow.....syracuse gets 12+ montreal and buffalo get into the snow, maybe 2-4 inches on the edge ottawa......nothing ...........i told you this could be painful....yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 euro brings measurable precip to everyone, and S-central and SE NY get slammed.....18+ new england gets about 2-3 feet lol basicall everyone on a line from BTV-ART-ROC and points S and E gets 6+ inches of snow.....syracuse gets 12+ montreal and buffalo get into the snow, maybe 2-4 inches on the edge ottawa......nothing ...........i told you this could be painful....yikes. UKMET would seemingly stick the pacifier back in your mouth!!!! : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 does the GGEM have total qpf maps? 24, 36, 48hr qpf like the GFS? Not that I'm aware of....But I'm sure they're (the maps) are out there somewhere... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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