Logan11 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It's been a tale of two halfs of this CD region with past storms this season. Snowfall has ranged from a few inches in the areas west of the Schoharie and the central MV to 2 feet in the eastern most fringe near the VT and MA border with ALB proper getting significant if not major events.... it's strange for me to be at the low end of every event when we almost always jackpot out here in the so called hill towns. I guess this is payback for last February's 46 inch pounding. It is also amusing watching people (such as the two girls that Andy appears with mornings. LOL) talk about this rough old fashioned winter. It is a decent winter in Albany, but this is child's play next to some of the really rough winter's of lore. Albany is so spoiled after six years of below normal snowfall winters. . we'll see what later runs bring but as of this time, its certainly looking like there are diminishing prospects for significant snowfall from CNY up thru ONT. Keep in mind that the NAM out at 60-84 hrs is not exactly "money." Agree that ENY is more in the game though given modelology trends. There certainly seems to be little in the way of a pattern change offered during the extended time period of the GFS and EC. Not sure if that's good or bad. My hunch is that when it does change, we're going to blowtorch. The past two winters that has occurred later in Feb, leaving a mild and snowless March/April period (at least in CNY). We'll see, that's no guarantee of future performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It's been a tale of two halfs of this CD region with past storms this season. Snowfall has ranged from a few inches in the areas west of the Schoharie and the central MV to 2 feet in the eastern most fringe near the VT and MA border with ALB proper getting significant if not major events.... it's strange for me to be at the low end of every event when we almost always jackpot out here in the so called hill towns. I guess this is payback for last February's 46 inch pounding. . yeah thats gotta suck for you the cutoffs have been right on top of your head. still, id much rather be in your shoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 After taking a look at the 12z GFS and NAM it's looking like every other coastal system so far this year. If it trends NW we may get brushed with a moderate event. Overall I can't complain...with the persistant cold the snow pack is builing nicely. I'll wait until the 12z Euro to throw in the towel regarding a possible significant event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GGEM is west, really west i suppose with some ensembles showing a hit, the threat is not entirely dead for those N and W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 The UKMET, Canadian, and Euro are in fairly close agreement. And the GFS is looking better. The models will continue to have problems with the active pattern in the northern stream. But the Models are only half of the picture. If you look at the upper air charts; you will see that the western ridge axis on the west coast supports a storm that will come very close to the coast. I'm just curious on how far west the moderate snow shield will penetrate. Right now, it looks like the eastern MV has at least a shot at a moderate snowfall..How many of us west of that remains in question. but we could be in the game...we will just have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Wow I didn't think the GGEM would be that far west! With the continued model disagreement we really wanna see the EC start to be on the western edge of guidance since we're getting into its deadly time range. It looks like the 12z UKMET would be more similar to last nights EURO past 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The UKMET, Canadian, and Euro are in fairly close agreement. And the GFS is looking better. The models will continue to have problems with the active pattern in the northern stream. But the Models are only half of the picture. If you look at the upper air charts; you will see that the western ridge axis on the west coast supports a storm that will come very close to the coast. I'm just curious on how far west the moderate snow shield will penetrate. Right now, it looks like the eastern MV has at least a shot at a moderate snowfall..How many of us west of that remains in question. but we could be in the game...we will just have to wait and see. wow, could it be possible that we might get clipped by this system in Ottawa after all? Maybe 2-4"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The UKMET, Canadian, and Euro are in fairly close agreement. And the GFS is looking better. The models will continue to have problems with the active pattern in the northern stream. But the Models are only half of the picture. If you look at the upper air charts; you will see that the western ridge axis on the west coast supports a storm that will come very close to the coast. I'm just curious on how far west the moderate snow shield will penetrate. Right now, it looks like the eastern MV has at least a shot at a moderate snowfall..How many of us west of that remains in question. but we could be in the game...we will just have to wait and see. wow, could it be possible that we might get clipped by this system in Ottawa after all? Maybe 2-4"? Those CMC images are off last night's 0z run. Today's 12z run is drastically different and WAY west. Low tracks up the eastern edge of the Appalachians to the Hudson / Champlain Valleys. Some of us would either change or mix over before going back to SN+ within the deformation zone verbatim. It is a crazy solution that has 0 support right now, so take it for what it is. Personally I think it was either working off a hangover or poured crack instead of sugar on it's cereal this morning.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 euro is basically a hit in exactly the same spots that have been seeing synoptic snowfall all year.....new england, lower HV, CD.....anywhere from 0.75-1.25 the further SE you go....no surprises i guess. BGM sees about 0.25 also. stilll a far cry from a few runs ago, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm going for my weenie badge. The JMA looks good. Purple is over and inch of liquid equivalent. Since the Albany NWSFO mentioned it in their discussion yesterday, I figured what the heck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 euro is basically a hit in the exacy same spots that have been seeing synoptic snowfall all year.....new england, lower HV, CD.....anywhere from 0.75-1.25 the further SE you go. no surprises i guess. Just out of curiosity, what was the relevent QPF off the 12z Euro for this storm for BGM and SYR? Saw in another thread that despite the track perhaps being a tick west of last night's run that the precip shield was much more developed and brought moderate to perhaps heavy precip back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Just out of curiosity, what was the relevent QPF off the 12z Euro for this storm for BGM and SYR? Saw in another thread that despite the track perhaps being a tick west of last night's run that the precip shield was much more developed and brought moderate to perhaps heavy precip back west. its quite a bit further west with qpf through PA but then ticks back east towards the normal region as it moves northeast. actually on closer look BGM is about 0.35 maybe 0.4 or so SYR about 0.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 its quite a bit further west with qpf through PA but then ticks back east towards the normal region as it moves northeast. actually on closer look BGM is about 0.35 maybe 0.4 or so SYR about 0.1 Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 18z run is even worse... not even a closed low at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GEFS 12Z a bit more west on LP and mean? SREFS trending NW perhaps? (Though a bit out of their range). 850 wind anomalies -3 to -4 more WEST too WNE-ENY. NAM 18z...not in its "take it to the bank" time period. Patience still wise grasshoppers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 nws in alb WE ARE GOING TO BE FOLLOWING THE 00Z AND 12ZECMWF...LATEST GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND HPC FOR THE TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM THE ECMWFINDICATES POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BANDING DUE TO STRONG MID LEVEL 2D PETERRSON FRONTOGENESIS ALONG A SRN VT...CAPITAL REGION...NRN CATSKILLS AXIS. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...THEN SEVERAL INCHES OF THE WHITE STUFF IN A HOUR COULD BE POSSIBLE...AS DOCUMENTED IN CSTAR RESEARCH BY NOVAK AT ALL. THE BOTTOM LINE...PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...MAY NEED THERE YARD STICKS. THERE COULD BE A TREMENDOUS GRADIENT ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY MIX AT THIS TIME... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Patience still wise grasshoppers... Wise man also say "don't expose skin very long when it is -27" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Wise man also say "don't expose skin very long when it is -27" Yep. True saying. Low probability of flashers, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yep. True saying. Low probability of flashers, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yep. True saying. Low probability of flashers, too. All they have to do is stick it out a few more days and thing should warm up. :blush: As for the midweek storm beware of artic air... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 3rd run in a row now on GEFS anomaly. With significant anomaly departures -2 to -3 across SNE and ENY @ 850, +2 to +4 pwat departures above normal same area and -2 anomalies at 250. Even latest SREF while ending around Wed when the event starts are west. Grant it, this isn't in the SREFS wheelhouse period of excellence but with their bouncing around that's a good sign, too. Waiting for Tornado Girl to say "It's, "Miller time!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 3rd run in a row now on GEFS anomaly. With significant anomaly departures -2 to -3 across SNE and ENY @ 850, +2 to +4 pwat departures above normal same area and -2 anomalies at 250. Even latest SREF while ending around Wed when the event starts are west. Grant it, this isn't in the SREFS wheelhouse period of excellence but with their bouncing around that's a good sign, too. Waiting for Tornado Girl to say "It's, "Miller time!" I meant NAM time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yep. True saying. Low probability of flashers, too. Hanging out for a short time will make it look like a second belly button. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Blah, 00z NAM pretty much on par with the 18z run. As Andy mentioned, the NAM is well outside it's wheelhouse period, so take it for what it is. If I had my choice of which models I would like to see this storm improve on this cycle at this time range, the NAM would be toward the bottom of the list... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I bet most people in here would love the 00z GGEM which smokes most of upstate NY: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I bet most people in here would love the 00z GGEM which smokes most of upstate NY: Man, I would be just at the cut-off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Man, I would be just at the cut-off! with the nao relaxing and less confluence to the northeast this still could come west yet. I hope the EC can start to clarify things soon. it would have been nice to see the 00z GFS ensembles comes west more but theres still time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 I meant NAM time NAM time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 with the nao relaxing and less confluence to the northeast this still could come west yet. I hope the EC can start to clarify things soon. it would have been nice to see the 00z GFS ensembles comes west more but theres still time. Did a look at members for KALB: 5 Glances...6 hits moderate to heavy 5 misses. Anomalies still the same @ 250 and 850 for winds though the -4 to -5 anomaly is now over ECT and SE NE. PWATS down to +1 to +2 for ENY and WNE +2 to +4 east. NAM time 06z looks a bit NW...IMO the next 3 runs of the NAM will be telling for sure along with this afternoon's SREFS too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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