The possible midweek coastal

[Wx4cast]

The GFS and NAM are quite a bit similar...except the GFS is a little closer to the coast and more on the wet side. EURO and UKMET have the system phasing. The major problem is that they show a warm solution. let's hope the kicker doesn't move the system OTS too quick. But that is a possibility because the shortwave has gotten a little stronger during the last few runs. if the storm exits a little further south Upstate New York will end up getting next to nothing (not that we will be getting that much in the first place)

Subtle shifts past 3 runs of GEFS anomaly winds at 850 off to the ESE. Still looks like a moderate to heavy impact for LI and in general along and east of I91. Some light accumulations back to the HV south of Albany, Berkshires and Litchfield Hills too. Slight chance for moderate amts across NW CT. PWATS also way more east. A broad area of +1 to +2 from HV east across New England. System MAY not be too wet even for areas of New England where the greatest impacts will be

I don't see additional aircraft recon doing much for NWP at this point - at least as far as resulting in a major change in characteristics - or sensible wx up this way. But I suppose stranger things have happened. ALB and maybe BGM are still in play though.<BR><BR>Saturday Clipper appears to be the next synoptic 'threat' for upstate NY and GooFuS is teasing w/ some decent qpf. These seem to be the best shot at synoptic west of the HV this winter. Yet again, early warning signsof significant coastal systems from the ECMWF and GEM have proven to be Lucy jerking the ball away from Charlie Brown - as far as CNY/CPA/ONT are concerned. Amazing consistency w/ the pattern this season and also the last and maybe the one before that.<BR><BR>Everyone say it with me: GooFuS Rules...GooFuS Rules...I feel like we're in the "Bad Kirk" universe.

Don't think BGM is in the game and save for ALB's far E and SE zones they are I am beginning to think that they are done with this coastal threat too. Of course will still watch for any trends but for the most part there are not any in the models other than a consistency of solutions that favor greater impacts well to the east and south of Albany

[sgottmann]

Subtle shifts past 3 runs of GEFS anomaly winds at 850 off to the ESE. Still looks like a moderate to heavy impact for LI and in general along and east of I91. Some light accumulations back to the HV south of Albany, Berkshires and Litchfield Hills too. Slight chance for moderate amts across NW CT. PWATS also way more east. A broad area of +1 to +2 from HV east across New England. System MAY not be too wet even for areas of New England where the greatest impacts will be

Don't think BGM is in the game and save for ALB's far E and SE zones they are I am beginning to think that they are done with this coastal threat too. Of course will still watch for any trends but for the most part there are not any in the models other than a consistency of solutions that favor greater impacts well to the east and south of Albany

And then depression set in . . .

[Organizing Low]

well the euro has been very very consistent bringing significant precip to SENY and the CD.

as ive said many times, it targets all of the same areas as previous storms with the same genereal ideas in terms of gradients and cutoffs.

on the 00z euro, ALB was once again in the 0.50-0.75 contour......this countor runs SW from ALB-Liberty-NY/PA border.

just S and E of there, amounts ramp up very quickly again, to as much as 1.5 along the NY-CT line.

[gravitylover]

well the euro has been very very consistent bringing significant precip to SENY and the CD.

as ive said many times, it targets all of the same areas as previous storms with the same genereal ideas in terms of gradients and cutoffs.

on the 00z euro, ALB was once again in the 0.50-0.75 contour......this countor runs SW from ALB-Liberty-NY/PA border.

just S and E of there, amounts ramp up very quickly again, to as much as 1.5 along the NY-CT line.

:weight_lift:

Actually if that comes true I have no idea where I'm going to put it

[Wx4cast]

lol this one might be even less than than previous storm if we dont get that NW trend in the next couple runs. It is very annoying when every single storm takes almost the exact same track just enough to brush us or delivery a moderate storm.. just give me a coastal hugger already.

Subtle shifts past 3 runs of GEFS anomaly winds at 850 off to the ESE. Still looks like a moderate to heavy impact for LI and in general along and east of I91. Some light accumulations back to the HV south of Albany, Berkshires and Litchfield Hills too. Slight chance for moderate amts across NW CT. PWATS also way more east. A broad area of +1 to +2 from HV east across New England. System MAY not be too wet even for areas of New England where the greatest impacts will be

Don't think BGM is in the game and save for ALB's far E and SE zones they are I am beginning to think that they are done with this coastal threat too. Of course will still watch for any trends but for the most part there are not any in the models other than a consistency of solutions that favor greater impacts well to the east and south of Albany

And then depression set in . . .

Then along comes the 09z SREF:

09Z SREFS

[Logan11]

It looks like the 12Z UKMET brings some measureable to the CD. Big increase not too far southeast.

It's the same old song I guess for us north/west of Albany, but maybe too early to assume that the areas from the immediate CD and east/south escape a moderate event.

Then along comes the 09z SREF:

09Z SREFS

[CNYWxGuy]

Something about being in the crosshairs of a heavy snow event on the ECM / GGEM 96-120 hours out that has me a little nervous. I mean seriously, could the situation really improve on either of those models for C NY... particularly South Central? Seems to me like the only way to go is down from here, but I hope I am wrong...

Said this a few days ago, and while I expected future runs of the ECM / CMC to tone things down for Upstate, I wasn't expecting them to go from 2 feet to less than 2 flakes for most of us.

Today's 12z runs have all but confirmed yesterday's building consensus for a more offshore solution and the proverbial last-minute shift west is seemingly not going to happen this time around. At any rate, I plan on posting a snowfall forecast for this storm sometime this Afternoon. I used to do these all the time (when I had time), and I hope to do them more often... hopefully.

12z CMC...

[Organizing Low]

euro defintely shifted SE a good bit, coming in line with other modeing

0.25-0.5 contour runs across S VT- CD - Liberty axis

ALB 0.35- 0.4 (N less, S more)

POU 0.5-0.75

extreme SE NY bordering the SOUTHERN half of the CT-NW border and heading towards NYC.....0.75- 1.00

[snowgeek]

Thanks for the #'s down this way. I'm expecting maybe .20 here in the CD.....we'll see. Long rang Euro looks interesting. Nice clipper 96-120 hour......apps runner 168 hour good have a nice burst of warm advection, maybe redevelop at the triple point?.....it will probably shift 400 miles east.

euro defintely shifted SE a good bit, coming in line with other modeing

0.25-0.5 contour runs across S VT- CD - Liberty axis

ALB 0.35- 0.4 (N less, S more)

POU 0.5-0.75

extreme SE NY bordering the SOUTHERN half of the CT-NW border and heading towards NYC.....0.75- 1.00

[Logan11]

HAH... Yeah I think we want a cutter over about Detroit on the day 7 prog and then maybe it will actually end up near the eastern coastal plain....

See where I pasted a tidbit of Bastardi in the HV thread - he holds with his forecast of the 6" line apparently near ALB.

Thanks for the #'s down this way. I'm expecting maybe .20 here in the CD.....we'll see. Long rang Euro looks interesting. Nice clipper 96-120 hour......apps runner 168 hour good have a nice burst of warm advection, maybe redevelop at the triple point?.....it will probably shift 400 miles east.

[Organizing Low]

HAH... Yeah I think we want a cutter over about Detroit on the day 7 prog and then maybe it will actually end up near the eastern coastal plain....

See where I pasted a tidbit of Bastardi in the HV thread - he holds with his forecast of the 6" line apparently near ALB.

[snowgeek]

HAH... Yeah I think we want a cutter over about Detroit on the day 7 prog and then maybe it will actually end up near the eastern coastal plain....

See where I pasted a tidbit of Bastardi in the HV thread - he holds with his forecast of the 6" line apparently near ALB.

Hee, hee...would be nice, but I'm not holding my breath. Make enough crazy forecasts though and some are bound to come true.

[Avid6eek]

I wasted quite a bit of time this weekend clearing snow off my roof.

I guess I shouldn't be complaning about the possibility of a few inches of snow. The 12z Euro does have potential at 144h+

[CNYWxGuy]

Here is my best guess for this upcoming storm as far as accumulations go for E NYS. I also included an educated hypothesis for 5 selected cities from the Middle HV down to NYC. May or may not update this pending 0z runs Tonight...

[Tornado Girl]

The Euro, UK, and Canadian have the storm closer to the coast than the NAM or GFS. Not that it will matter for East or Northeast of the lower Hudson Valley. Albany might see a little more in the way of snow if the Euro, Canadian, UK are right. The rest of us will be bystanders once again.

[ENYsnow]

The Euro, UK, and Canadian have the storm closer to the coast than the NAM or GFS. Not that it will matter for East or Northeast of the lower Hudson Valley. Albany might see a little more in the way of snow if the Euro, Canadian, UK are right. The rest of us will be bystanders once again.

I dont know how reliable the spc wrf is but it looks nice for the ALB area and is definitely furthest west the system. Here is the simulated composite radar..

[Logan11]

For die hards that want to hold out to the end for some snow out of this...it's time to play "beat the models". ....and hope that they simply aren't picking up on the true intensity of this. The models usually win, but we'll see.

I don't think this thing will really crank in terms of snowfall anywhere from NYC north until the end of the day so I'm going Downstate to hit some courthouses on Long Island around 6 AM. I'll get online and update if I encounter any "interesting" wx. The plan though is to be on my way back north by around 3 PM to miss most of it. I'll get home to flurries at best I suppose.

I dont know how reliable the spc wrf is but it looks nice for the ALB area and is definitely furthest west the system. Here is the simulated composite radar..

[Tornado Girl]

For die hards that want to hold out to the end for some snow out of this...it's time to play "beat the models". ....and hope that they simply aren't picking up on the true intensity of this. The models usually win, but we'll see.

I don't think this thing will really crank in terms of snowfall anywhere from NYC north until the end of the day so I'm going Downstate to hit some courthouses on Long Island around 6 AM. I'll get online and update if I encounter any "interesting" wx. The plan though is to be on my way back north by around 3 PM to miss most of it. I'll get home to flurries at best I suppose.

Have fun,,,,If you see anything I hope you can take some pictures.

[Wx4cast]

The Euro, UK, and Canadian have the storm closer to the coast than the NAM or GFS. Not that it will matter for East or Northeast of the lower Hudson Valley. Albany might see a little more in the way of snow if the Euro, Canadian, UK are right. The rest of us will be bystanders once again.

I may have the best of both worlds...I get to see some accumulating snow from this storm @ work but not @ home and in either case I won't have to shovel snowthrow!

[snowgeek]

12 NAM seems to have tightened the precip gradient on the northern edge of the storm and shifted any accumulating snows to south of Poughkeepsie. At least we're not missing another 20-30" megastorm.

[snowgeek]

NYC area is getting hammered this morning....definitely not expected. Stay safe Logan11.

For die hards that want to hold out to the end for some snow out of this...it's time to play "beat the models". ....and hope that they simply aren't picking up on the true intensity of this. The models usually win, but we'll see.

I don't think this thing will really crank in terms of snowfall anywhere from NYC north until the end of the day so I'm going Downstate to hit some courthouses on Long Island around 6 AM. I'll get online and update if I encounter any "interesting" wx. The plan though is to be on my way back north by around 3 PM to miss most of it. I'll get home to flurries at best I suppose.

[Organizing Low]

euro defintely was awful with this storm, at least in our region.

[Tornado Girl]

I may have the best of both worlds...I get to see some accumulating snow from this storm @ work but not @ home and in either case I won't have to shovel snowthrow!

You're right about that ....There won't even be a lot of LES behind it ....At least the Saturday Clipper will bring a little bit of snow.

[CNYWxGuy]

euro defintely was awful with this storm, at least in our region.

Yeah, Canadian model was even worse though. The ECM and CMC both depicted an epic storm for the bulk of Upstate into the Southeast Canada vicinity T96-144 hours, but the Euro permanently backed off atleast 2-3 runs before the CMC finally came in line with the other global models on an offshore solution. That said, the ECM did keep the E NY folks in the game right down to the wire, only to be wrong.

Say what you want, but I think something can be said for the GFS model, despite the fact it was too far east for some time. While the ECM and CMC were gung-ho on a big interior event for multiple runs in a row in the medium range, the GFS never once had even a mediocre hit for interior sections. And here we are sitting on the sideline while yet another formitable synoptic event passes us by to the south and east...

[woolymammoth]

Yeah, Canadian model was even worse though. The ECM and CMC both depicted an epic storm for the bulk of Upstate into the Southeast Canada vicinity T96-144 hours, but the Euro permanently backed off atleast 2-3 runs before the CMC finally came in line with the other global models on an offshore solution. That said, the ECM did keep the E NY folks in the game right down to the wire, only to be wrong.

Say what you want, but I think something can be said for the GFS model, despite the fact it was too far east for some time. While the ECM and CMC were gung-ho on a big interior event for multiple runs in a row in the medium range, the GFS never once had even a mediocre hit for interior sections. And here we are sitting on the sideline while yet another formitable synoptic event passes us by to the south and east...

Yeah, a very frustrating winter around here. 8 6+ events in SNE thus far, NYC has had its 3rd foot plus snowfall. Too many of these winters in a row. This used to be a good area for snow! I'm bummed.

[snowgeek]

Time sensitive link, but these new event maps from the NWSFO are amazing, although frustrating if you miss the snow.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/hydromet/erEventDisplay.php

[Logan11]

It was fun driving in a whiteout yesterday from about Ossining to just below Fishkill where it lightened quite a bit. I got out of there just in time because at those snowfall rates the road would have been impassible in another hour. Then a mundane drive once to New Paltz with just scattered light snow and nuisance dustings up to around the Albany County line.

We had snow this morning here - perhaps lake related. It looks like maybe 3/4's of an inch. The usual stuff.

Time sensitive link, but these new event maps from the NWSFO are amazing, although frustrating if you miss the snow.

http://www.erh.noaa....ventDisplay.php

[snowgeek]

I was worried about you yesterday morning down there. That first batch seemed to be heavier and earlier than expected. Glad to have you back from snowcountry.

It was fun driving in a whiteout yesterday from about Ossining to just below Fishkill where it lightened quite a bit. I got out of there just in time because at those snowfall rates the road would have been impassible in another hour. Then a mundane drive once to New Paltz with just scattered light snow and nuisance dustings up to around the Albany County line.

We had snow this morning here - perhaps lake related. It looks like maybe 3/4's of an inch. The usual stuff.

[Logan11]

Yeah I encountered that first batch in Westchester County ...few inches on the Taconic and slow. Then it was just mainly wet roads and some slush patches from NYC to LI with temps near 32. I knew I had to get north though before the main event hit.

Let's hope we have better luck with next week's event.

I was worried about you yesterday morning down there. That first batch seemed to be heavier and earlier than expected. Glad to have you back from snowcountry.

[snowgeek]

12Z GFS is a bit supressed (what ever happened to the SE bias?) and GGEM is way west with a good high to north (warm advection snow to ice?) Here we go again.

Yeah I encountered that first batch in Westchester County ...few inches on the Taconic and slow. Then it was just mainly wet roads and some slush patches from NYC to LI with temps near 32. I knew I had to get north though before the main event hit.

Let's hope we have better luck with next week's event.