tarheelwx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 DT has an excellent post today about blocking, or lack there of with the upcoming storm - http://www.wxrisk.com/ I read DT's post earlier today. I do remember that he consistently referred to blocking being necessary for an all snow event. I don't think any of us are expecting an all snow event, but we'd gladly take an old fashioned southeast storm which starts as a couple inches of snow and then transitions to ice. Had them all the time as a kid. Now we seem to never see them. Havn't had an ice storm (.25 or greater) in probably 5 years. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Is it just me, or does it seem like several of the models are depicting a setup very similar to the one from the January 25, 2004 ice storm. I'd gladly take a repeat of that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'd gladly take a repeat of that event. Had 4 inches with nice glaze on top from that one. http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20040125.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'd gladly take a repeat of that event. Just happen to be driving from Snowshoe, WV to Charlotte during that event...drove through HEAVY snow in western VA on I-77 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It sure is mighty cold over the Lakes and Northeast at 84 hours on the GFS . Looks like the SE coastal is going to get partially phased with the s/w coming through the Lakes, and the Rockies trough has sharpened up. It has a look of a stronger southern system developing, and tall PNA ridging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The GFS is faster than Euro for sure, has the precip coming into the Southeast by Sunday night and Monday morning. Strong damming. It may not be right with the lack of strong digging though, and allowing it to get kicked east faster, we'll see. Looks colder aloft, NC may be mostly snow as well as Upstate and northern GA. Precip is still not too heavy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Looks like we're all snow through 120. Love the position and strength of the high at 114. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 the GFS has a pretty decent 850 low as well over Alabama to N. GA and the CArolinas with this storm, but doesn't drop much moisture, similar to the storm a cople weeks ago. That would probably grow much wetter with that setup. The high goes nowhere and this is probably all freezing and frozen from ATL north. Pretty nasty winter storm with the high going nowhere on the GFS and good dynamics and southwest flow. Great setup for decent snow on the north shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 the GFS has a pretty decent 850 low as well over Alabama to N. GA and the CArolinas with this storm, but doesn't drop much moisture, similar to the storm a cople weeks ago. That would probably grow much wetter with that setup. The high goes nowhere and this is probably all freezing and frozen from ATL north. Pretty nasty winter storm with the high going nowhere on the GFS and good dynamics and southwest flow. Great setup for decent snow on the north shield. Look at how cold surface temps are right before the precip falls...almost identical or colder than the last event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 FWIW ..... Just watched JB's Big Dog from today. He also says another big storm developes near gulf (So he circled area around gulf) and comes up eastern seaboard Tuesday-Wednesday If +NAO it would change to rain in Big Cities (NE) alot snow inland. Just to let you know he is thinking same area of development near gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Probably 2" across the area by 18z on Monday. The only negative with this setup is it comes in during the afternoon. Actually, you can probably include 18z-0z's precip as all snow too...so roughly 2-3" across the area by time the sun goes down. Temps never crack the 20's here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 If we can get that blasted high to hang right there, this could get really ugly for lots of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Look at how cold surface temps are right before the precip falls...almost identical or colder than the last event. one thing about this system is the persistence of the high.Its stationary through the event in an ideal spot, if the Euro still has it, watch out. We'd be in low 20's for much of the event, if it arrives early enough. I wouldn't even be suprised at some teens northern NC if the damming high is located ideally, the source air is super cold. All that is if the GFS is right on dropping the next wave well west, not to the Lakes, and if the precip comes in as advertised.The best damming event in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 PNA through the run it looks like, coupled with -NAO, and the climo coldest part of the Winter. The GFS is very cold through atleast 216. We may end up in some brutal cold air soon.What an "un nina" Winter this has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 one thing about this system is the persistence of the high.Its stationary through the event in an ideal spot, if the Euro still has it, watch out. We'd be in low 20's for much of the event, if it arrives early enough. I wouldn't even be suprised at some teens northern NC if the damming high is located ideally, the source air is super cold. All that is if the GFS is right on dropping the next wave well west, not to the Lakes, and if the precip comes in as advertised.The best damming event in years. At 96 there is 2 pieces of energy but then by 108 they phase? And at 108 it actually looks similar to the 12z JMA at 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bta0812 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 How close to the storm do you think we will need to get to get more of a grasp on the level of precipitation in general with the storm as a whole? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 If we can get that blasted high to hang right there, this could get really ugly for lots of us. A lot of the South would be wintry precip if the GFS is right, except maybe the southeast coastal plain. Even there a start as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 At 96 there is 2 pieces of energy but then by 108 they phase? And at 108 it actually looks similar to the 12z JMA at 120. The GFS is very close to a monster system for the Southeast, one of the best, widespread Winter storms in a while, with the low heights, established cold air on both sides of the Apps and more digging energy. It will be interesting to see if the Euro does anything like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GFS actually drops a little light snow @ GSO friday morning early. Then there's .25 snow monday afternoon/night. Temps are in the uppper 20's when snow starts and drops to around 23-24 by Tuesday morning. 850's rise to around freezing during the event. What impact would this have on ratios? Also, should it trend wetter? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Looks like the energy coming out of MT ends up phasing w/ the main piece of energy to the south around hr 108...If that happens at a later time or does not happen at all what effect will it have on the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 How close to the storm do you think we will need to get to get more of a grasp on the level of precipitation in general with the storm as a whole? Within 24-48 hours is when the models typically get a handle on the QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 really need someone from the midlands of sc that can look out for us. what is the deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 If we can get that blasted high to hang right there, this could get really ugly for lots of us. Even on this run in RDU you probably have a warm nose for a while, but my guess is it would yield sleet as oppossed to freezing rain. Ways to go on this one, but trending toward a potential winter storm in 5 days. I have pretty high confidence in surface cold keeping everything frozen. The big ?'s for the next couple of days are qpf amounts and if we can keep our column cold enough throughout for snow. Hopefully we can get the pattern to set up just right and deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Much more favorable placement of the parent high. Just north of New York vs a couple hundred miles ots and retreating per the 12z run. Would prefer it centered over Pennsylvania, but as cold as this air mass is, it'll do. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp1_132.shtml http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fp1_120.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 PNA through the run it looks like, coupled with -NAO, and the climo coldest part of the Winter. The GFS is very cold through atleast 216. We may end up in some brutal cold air soon.What an "un nina" Winter this has been. You are exactly right Robert....The gfs is really cold all the way into the later panels! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Even on this run in RDU you probably have a warm nose for a while, but my guess is it would yield sleet as oppossed to freezing rain. Ways to go on this one, but trending toward a potential winter storm in 5 days. I have pretty high confidence in surface cold keeping everything frozen. The big ?'s for the next couple of days are qpf amounts and if we can keep our column cold enough throughout for snow. Hopefully we can get the pattern to set up just right and deliver. Well I for one love snow/ice mix winter storms, I thought last January's storm was great, but I imagine we got a long ways to go to see if this can hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Well I for one love snow/ice mix winter storms, I thought last January's storm was great, but I imagine we got a long ways to go to see if this can hold. I agree...Last January's storm was a lot of fun. The kids and I had a blast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I agree...Last January's storm was a lot of fun. The kids and I had a blast! I like alot of snow with a crust on top also ! Gives it some staying power and great sledding too !!! I gotta find me 4 wheeler to play in the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Well I for one love snow/ice mix winter storms, I thought last January's storm was great, but I imagine we got a long ways to go to see if this can hold. Your right. I have more confidence in our HP / CAD setup being in place come Monday for my area. I just hope the qpf is here. Lot of energy runing all over the maps. The models are all barking, but the devil is in the details as they resolve all the placements and finite deteails. Id lean heavy on using the euro over the next 36-48 hours and see if other models are hinting/trending its way, then we can start zeroing in over the weekend. So far so good up until now for our area (NC) IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Max 2m temps in NC/SC/GA at hour 114 when the precip starts to get going in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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