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Ji

The Psuhoffman Storm

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Yea.. nam is definitely going to send this either along the coast or even somewhat inland based off the 500 mb level. Definitely with the Euro/GGEm camp.

Thought the same thing when I saw the set up. But looking at the pressure fields I have to wonder about the bagginess that's off the southeast coast. Wouldn't that argue for a slightly more eastern track?

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For what it's worth the DGEX does take the low more easterly then what you would assume from the 84 NAM. In fact once it hits the outer banks it takes it out to sea. :lmao:

Edit: For those wondering about snow forget it. Has little to no snow anywhere with this system.

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LOL DGEX....

I also noted the bagginess of the cost as well on the nam. It could argue for a slight of the coast track.. but it could get captured as well by the upper level low...

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LOL DGEX....

I also noted the bagginess of the cost as well on the nam. It could argue for a slight of the coast track.. but it could get captured as well by the upper level low...

so far as the nam goes i dont take the nam at 84 hrs seriously , and DGEX? lol does anyone even take that model seriously?

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so far as the nam goes i dont take the nam at 84 hrs seriously , and DGEX? lol does anyone even take that model seriously?

DGEX is more for kicks just to see what solution it will spit out next. :popcorn:

But what would you expect when you are using the 84 NAM that's 24 to 36 hours out of it's good range.

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It means it does not even have a low develop in the gulf. Its sticking to its guns. :arrowhead:

gfs_pcp_078m.gif

Then there is the nam...

nam_pcp_078m.gif

Upper patterns..

GFS

gfs_500_078m.gif

Nam..

nam_500_078m.gif

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Looks like its doing a Miller B?

Pretty much.

Is this bad news? What does it exactly mean?

Same as 00Z. All snow for much of the MA but of course way lighter on QPF.

It means it does not even have a low develop in the gulf. Its sticking to its guns. :arrowhead:

It is darned consistent--no doubt. Sooner or later one of these solutions is going to cave big time.

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It is darned consistent--no doubt. Sooner or later one of these solutions is going to cave big time.

Can I take the NAM's Gulf low with the GFS's high location? :arrowhead:

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Can I take the NAM's Gulf low with the GFS's high location? :arrowhead:

This forecast is ridiculous. I am betting against the GFS for a multitude of reasons--but if it pulls off a coup--it will be one of the more epic ones in a long time.

The GFS ensembles actually trended closer to its op--and the ECM ensembles are in decent agreement with its op although I will add the GFS 0Z mean is a little W of its op. Either way--these separate model data assimilation systems are sampling something vastly different as they are completely different as early as 36-42 hours into the forecast. Amazing.

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This forecast is ridiculous. I am betting against the GFS for a multitude of reasons--but if it pulls off a coup--it will be one of the more epic ones in a long time.

The GFS ensembles actually trended closer to its op--and the ECM ensembles are in decent agreement with its op although I will add the GFS 0Z mean is a little W of its op. Either way--these separate model data assimilation systems are sampling something vastly different as they are completely different as early as 36-42 hours into the forecast. Amazing.

I agree. My parents wanted to know today of what type of event is going to be come for the early or mid week. I let out a small laugh and literally said. I don't know.

I told them I favored a rain event for this area (Richmond... most data is rain ...) but models were not in agreement with the type of storm or evolution of the storm at all. I did not get overly technical with them. It's just baffling the differences between the GFS is compared to all other guidance on how the storm plays out. Its not as easy to say.. oh well model A has storm tracking from point A on the gulf to point B somewhere up the coast.... while model B has it go from some place down in the gulf as well to come other point along the east coast.

Sure if we throw out the GFS we can do that...

But gfs would literally be... well... a trough comes down... and eventually forms a low along the outer banks area... but it does not come from the gulf..

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Might be time to pull for Gfs.... .7 qpf in dc all snow

I believe I was the first to say that and was scoffed at by a few.

I'm pulling for whichever model shows snow, and that would be the GFS and no other model at this time.

It is hard to believe, however, that it will pull the coup.

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Found this cool product, NWS RNK doing a video update on the storm.

Very nice product from the NWS....I like that Blacksburg office. Sterling could take a few pages out of their playbook.

thanks

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I believe I was the first to say that and was scoffed at by a few.

I'm pulling for whichever model shows snow, and that would be the GFS and no other model at this time.

It is hard to believe, however, that it will pull the coup.

Never scoffed at that and I'm more in your camp now. I don't need to gamble at this point. .7 qpf all snow in this winter is HUGE.

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Never scoffed at that and I'm more in your camp now. I don't need to gamble at this point. .7 qpf all snow in this winter is HUGE.

I'd take the .7 too but with such model mayhem, it's hard to take any of them seriously at this time.

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Never scoffed at that and I'm more in your camp now. I don't need to gamble at this point. .7 qpf all snow in this winter is HUGE.

interesting how the 3Z SREF's were uber progressive and didn't really have a storm (except in Canada north of the Great Lakes!-where have we seen that picture before?)

9Z will be out shortly and, if also progressive, may signal a change on the NAM from over-amped to under

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