dmc76 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 not sure. but wherever it goes it'll probably be slow looking at that trough. Hopefully a slow crawl north and the cold can hang on better than the nam is showing. This is the first time I've actually been concerned about temps lol Im not sure and Im sure you would know better... Did this storm look familar to the March 08 storm from this point out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 was just going to post this. When i saw the 9z srefs i thought for sure the nam would send it ots. Sref have a 1012 low way the hell off the ma coast It's the 84 hour NAM vs. the world. And we're not even sure the NAM would be a hit extrapolated. So as far as my excitement meter goes...the needle hasn't budged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It's the 84 hour NAM vs. the world. And we're not even sure the NAM would be a hit extrapolated. So as far as my excitement meter goes...the needle hasn't budged. as i said last night...it's not really the nam vs. the world, because the rest of the modelling world doesn't really have a concensus either. I had a feeling the nam was gonna do this. Sometimes it can be the first model to sniff out a situation like this....but more often then not it's usually just wrong at this range lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Im not sure and Im sure you would know better... Did this storm look familar to the March 08 storm from this point out? Nice way to jinx them. Rule 1 when discussing a event. NEVER EVER mention analogs to famous storms. Sure fire way to kill any potential off. From my own pov i would like to see this backed another say.. 100-150 miles or so. Just no cutting off till it gets north of the OH river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Problem is the high to the north is not letting it cut north. Nam looks great tho, who ever gets the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Nice way to jinx them. Rule 1 when discussing a event. NEVER EVER mention analogs to famous storms. Sure fire way to kill any potential off. From my own pov i would like to see this backed another say.. 100-150 miles or so. Just no cutting off till it gets north of the OH river. I'd like the upstream kicker gone and stronger jet energy fuelling the development of the trough. We'll see, I don't want to crap all over this potential this far out, but I see a lot of problems with getting this storm to ramp up and hit a lot of us with heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Im not sure and Im sure you would know better... Did this storm look familar to the March 08 storm from this point out? haven't really looked if that makes sense as an analog....i'm not a big believer in storm analogs due to so much chaos in the atmosphere. All i know, and what i have been saying over the last few days is give me a trough like most of the models are showing around the 72-84 hr timeframe and lets see what happens from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 not sure. but wherever it goes it'll probably be slow looking at that trough. Hopefully a slow crawl north and the cold can hang on better than the nam is showing. This is the first time I've actually been concerned about temps lol In the winters of 2007-08 and 2008-09, while we were blasted with snow, I remember every storm I was at some point worried about a miss to the south and at another point worried about a mix at the least. In those 2 winters I saw 143" of snow, when my climo for 2 winters is 88". So basically 3.5 winters of snowfall stuffed into 2. YET...in the nowcast times of each storm, tons of worry and frustration because of models. Since then, Ive laid of taking them so seriously or trying to rely on their biases, and its done a world of good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Nice way to jinx them. Rule 1 when discussing a event. NEVER EVER mention analogs to famous storms. Sure fire way to kill any potential off. From my own pov i would like to see this backed another say.. 100-150 miles or so. Just no cutting off till it gets north of the OH river. Oh! Did not know rule #1 My bad i just knocked on wood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Problem is the high to the north is not letting it cut north. Nam looks great tho, who ever gets the storm. the high is actually retreting stage right in fact, that high is pretty much the only source of cold for this lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the high is actually retreting stage right in fact, that high is pretty much the only source of cold for this lol True, I think nam has done a great job with the last storm, and the temp profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 In the winters of 2007-08 and 2008-09, while we were blasted with snow, I remember every storm I was at some point worried about a miss to the south and at another point worried about a mix at the least. In those 2 winters I saw 143" of snow, when my climo for 2 winters is 88". So basically 3.5 winters of snowfall stuffed into 2. YET...in the nowcast times of each storm, tons of worry and frustration because of models. Since then, Ive laid of taking them so seriously or trying to rely on their biases, and its done a world of good. Correct. I remeber several storms came up at the last minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 How about you just Ignore my posts, because you are really annoying. Mind your own business, to me it seems like you are the only one who is really noticing my posts. SO how about STFU. I dont need to learn from you, and you dont need to tell me how much I can post and how much I cant, who the F you think you are? For your 411, this is my third fluent language, I might not be as perfect as you are, but I'm here to learn, learn about weather. B+ on the diatribe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The NAM is about to explode or already is for that matter, sfc low goes from 1012mb to 1004mb in the last 6hrs with a snowstorm already going on in parts of MS/AL/TN. those are some pretty impressive UA maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Baro must be taking a serious power nap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 How about you just Ignore my posts, because you are really annoying. Mind your own business, to me it seems like you are the only one who is really noticing my posts. SO how about STFU. I dont need to learn from you, and you dont need to tell me how much I can post and how much I cant, who the F you think you are? For your 411, this is my third fluent language, I might not be as perfect as you are, but I'm here to learn, learn about weather. well SSC is probably one of the better people on this entire board to learn from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The NAM is about to explode or already is for that matter, sfc low goes from 1012mb to 1004mb in the last 6hrs with a snowstorm already going on in parts of MS/AL/TN. those are some pretty impressive UA maps. the nam per se probably wouldn't explode anything extrapolated. There's no jet feeding into the trough and it appears to be ready to cut off the 5h low. As Harry said, that would probably stop the northward movement. Probably would end up with a big wet sloppy low that meanders off the coast with some high elevation snows in the central apps. of course we're extrapolating an 84 hr nam map which is like extrapolating a 384 hr gfs ensemble member. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 http://148.61.161.209/view/index.shtml GVSU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Wow. Just wow. You literally have ZERO concept of climo. Maybe its good that your done actually, because if this is your worst winter ever, you have SERIOUS issues. This is going to be probably remembered by the general public as a brutal winter. I mean seriously. We have seen well below normal temperatures, probably enroute to one of the 20 coldest winters on record. We have seen well above normal snowcover, probably en route to one of the 20 whitest winters on record. Snowfall itself is right around normal, with officially 21.6" at DTW as we near the halfway mark of winter, which includes 2 decent (not massive) snowstorms and a ton of nickel/dime stuff. With projections from several that we will be seeing a very active Feb/Mar, this is still possibly en route to a top 20 snowiest winter, at the very least above normal snowfall. Take a look at some past winters sometime. This is Detroit, not Houghton. Ok Ok let's put the nail in the coffin here about detroit this winter. Just about every location that should see snow in the U.S. is at average or well above. Sure there are a few locations such as DC and Balt/a few places in IA but the number is small. To each is own I understand that, but I could care less about below average temps and above average snow cover. We have gone over this already. Getting excited about snow cover is like getting excited that your street is wet from rain or possible ponding on the roadways. It's just been too cold for significant snow which is even more frustrating. While we are at average snowfall, it has been frustrating seeing every possible significant storm either miss us or not play out. Yes we have had two 5 inch storms but around here thats nuisance. We have one of the lowest running totals being this far north. Yes its frustrating knowing your area will probably be the last to witness a significant event but as DMC noted, until you have experienced it a few times, it's hard not to get frustrated. The bottom line is there have been atleast 6 significant storms, and not one has hit this area. I no longer get frustrated like I used to but it still irks me. We all need to understand everyone is different and people vent in different ways. Sure some of the complaining and valley posts dont belong in here, but I admire the opportunity to go OT sometimes and as hard as it is, posters need to stop jumping all over somebody publicly. So lets lighten up and enjoy the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Who needs to venture into OT for laughs when there is OV super thread threats constantly and MichicanSnowFreak going on climo rants to fellow Michiganders and how brutal winter has been in SE. MI. I expect 10 more pages when I get back early this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 72 uk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I don't think the GFS is going to budge much. It actually looks similar to the 12z RGEM at 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 72 uk Wow, that looks like it could do some damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 72 uk Looks like that high might be moving out quickly, I'm not sure but this storm could track a lot further west.. BTW this is what HM has to say " Henry Margusity. Understand two things about the storm. 1. Very cold air will be setting out ahead of the storm. 2. The storm is coming loaded with moisture. What does this mean.. One area of very heavy snow and another area of major ice. The track is critical obviously to figure out these areas, but I-95 corridor fro DC north will not escape some kind of dangerous weather". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Why does that first system now in nebreaska die out so quick. It looks to be there isn;t much further east that would squash it. Also the next clipper coming out of canada is at one point 998 in canada and as it it closer to somewhat warmer air and the gulf it fizzzles to 1012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Who needs to venture into OT for laughs when there is OV super thread threats constantly and MichicanSnowFreak going on climo rants to fellow Michiganders and how brutal winter has been in SE. MI. I expect 10 more pages when I get back early this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Wow, that looks like it could do some damage. i wish there were more northern branch dropping in.....gonna be hard to keep cold temps...although 850 0 is down into the lower TN at that point. Also looks like it could pinch off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Who needs to venture into OT for laughs when there is OV super thread threats constantly and MichicanSnowFreak going on climo rants to fellow Michiganders and how brutal winter has been in SE. MI. I expect 10 more pages when I get back early this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Looks like that high might be moving out quickly, I'm not sure but this storm could track a lot further west.. BTW this is what HM has to say " Henry Margusity. Understand two things about the storm. 1. Very cold air will be setting out ahead of the storm. 2. The storm is coming loaded with moisture. What does this mean.. One area of very heavy snow and another area of major ice. The track is critical obviously to figure out these areas, but I-95 corridor fro DC north will not escape some kind of dangerous weather". unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 UKMET h72 Remind you of something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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