packbacker Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 As DT posted on FB earlier, this is very close to a big deal for the Coastal Plain. I hate being 120 hrs out, but if there is one model I want on my side at this range it is the ECMWF. This is not the first run to show this, the 0z had it, albeit to a lesser degree; development on the tail end of this trough off the FL/GA coast. 996 off Hatteras at 138 hrs with Jacksonville, New Bern, and the OBX >0.25", PGV is at 0.22", RDU 0.01" :-( At 114-126 hrs, we are very close to a phasing of parcels near the FL panhandle, I mean very close. Trough never goes neg, but it a solid neutral tilt over the FL Panhandle, and at 132 and 138 hrs we have a monster vort centered just off ILM, hence the development previously mentioned. If this sw trough can go neg over the FL panhandle where it is neutral on this run, that would likely pull the low closer to the coast and put us really in the game for a <5 day threat surprise, one we really did not see coming in the long range. What causes the development? The Euro misses the capture between the upper level trough, and the piece of energy in the desert sw. The UL trough is responsible for the Fri storm, which should track to our west through the TN Valley. The Euro is nowhere near as excited about this as the 12z GGEM and GFS ens mean (which had a simple majority of members dropping a bomb on NE). The miss happens at 72hrs, so we are not that far out. At 96hrs, the UL trough is pulling out of NE, and there is a draped area of PVA extending from the Delmarva to TX/MX, with the parcel that missed the capture in N MX just south of El Paso on the tail end. That works east in the next several panels with a northern stream piece (which is shown by most of the guidance) coming into the Plains, and phasing with southern vort. Complicated setup and highly variable as we are trying to predict phasing, and a 6 hr difference in timing, or 50 mile placement in features has huge implications on what is realized at the surface in terms of what and where. The good news is that we are only 72 hrs out from the southern sw possibly being missed, and that is within a reasonable window. I am worrying about a miss with the UL trough first, and will take it from there... The 18z NAM and GFS completely captured the piece in the trough and are nothing like the Euro in that regard. Trough placement and strength though in the OH Valley are very similar, so something is askew... The 18z UKMET looks very much like the EC, and nothing like the NAM/GFS at 72 hrs. The separation between these two features shown would indicate something is going to get left back, no way in hell that piece in NM gets captured if this verified at 72hrs... 18z GFS @ 72 Great writeup, WeatherNC, I was looking at that too and couldn't explain the difference between Euro/UK and GFS/NAM, but you seemed to be spot on. A question, is it a miss or is it just more energy at hr72 that NAM/GFS is not picking up on? Whatever it is, it will be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Doesn't the low follow basically the same path the last one did? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Great writeup, WeatherNC, I was looking at that too and couldn't explain the difference between Euro/UK and GFS/NAM, but you seemed to be spot on. A question, is it a miss or is it just more energy at hr72 that NAM/GFS is not picking up on? Whatever it is, it will be fun to watch. It is a miss, not a capture like the American guidance is showing. Second part of the puzzle is a potential phase with another northern stream piece coming into the central plains, this feature most of the guidance has. We need the miss to happen first though before we can focus on the phase, as the first player needs to be on the field before he can receive a pitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 As DT posted on FB earlier, this is very close to a big deal for the Coastal Plain. I hate being 120 hrs out, but if there is one model I want on my side at this range it is the ECMWF. This is not the first run to show this, the 0z had it, albeit to a lesser degree; development on the tail end of this trough off the FL/GA coast. 996 off Hatteras at 138 hrs with Jacksonville, New Bern, and the OBX >0.25", PGV is at 0.22", RDU 0.01" :-( At 114-126 hrs, we are very close to a phasing of parcels near the FL panhandle, I mean very close. Trough never goes neg, but it a solid neutral tilt over the FL Panhandle, and at 132 and 138 hrs we have a monster vort centered just off ILM, hence the development previously mentioned. If this sw trough can go neg over the FL panhandle where it is neutral on this run, that would likely pull the low closer to the coast and put us really in the game for a <5 day threat surprise, one we really did not see coming in the long range. What causes the development? The Euro misses the capture between the upper level trough, and the piece of energy in the desert sw. The UL trough is responsible for the Fri storm, which should track to our west through the TN Valley. The Euro is nowhere near as excited about this as the 12z GGEM and GFS ens mean (which had a simple majority of members dropping a bomb on NE). The miss happens at 72hrs, so we are not that far out. At 96hrs, the UL trough is pulling out of NE, and there is a draped area of PVA extending from the Delmarva to TX/MX, with the parcel that missed the capture in N MX just south of El Paso on the tail end. That works east in the next several panels with a northern stream piece (which is shown by most of the guidance) coming into the Plains, and phasing with southern vort. Complicated setup and highly variable as we are trying to predict phasing, and a 6 hr difference in timing, or 50 mile placement in features has huge implications on what is realized at the surface in terms of what and where. The good news is that we are only 72 hrs out from the southern sw possibly being missed, and that is within a reasonable window. I am worrying about a miss with the UL trough first, and will take it from there... The 18z NAM and GFS completely captured the piece in the trough and are nothing like the Euro in that regard. Trough placement and strength though in the OH Valley are very similar, so something is askew... The 18z UKMET looks very much like the EC, and nothing like the NAM/GFS at 72 hrs. The separation between these two features shown would indicate something is going to get left back, no way in hell that piece in NM gets captured if this verified at 72hrs... 18z GFS @ 72 Thanks for the info WeatherNC! Something to continue to watch. I've been out of town and haven't seen a model run in 3 days so I'm a little late to the game and trying to catch up. Thanks again for the detailed explanation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Wow....a couple of model runs and some are worked into a lather about winter being over. As others have stated, you can anticipate a lot of model waffling as any of these little disturbance pivoting around the eastern NA tough can pop a storm system. The one between hours 126 and 138 is extremely close to one for NC, just a tad too late in deepening. Euro does provide a nice setup for next week, but it also did that on previous runs for the end of this week. I did get into why that happened in my video today. Bottom line is....in this fairly chaotic disturbance pattern, you simply can't get too worked up (either excited or towel-throwing) on any one, or even any several, model runs. Also, while there isn't any overly brutal cold on the 12z Euro, there certainly isn't any prolonged 'warm' weather for much of the eastern US on the horizon either. For snow fans, not necessarily a bad thing for a fairly chaotic, generally below average pattern to be indicated. Have the non-mountain areas in the region seen their final winter storm of the season? Of course that is a possibility (and if it is, what a fun winter it was). However, I still think there are more chances lurking around out there. Anybody care to agree or disagree? Lol It is the middle of Jan. Eight days ago I had one inch of mix fall. It has been raining here since before noon today; and, as of 7pm I still have patches of mix on the ground, when I should be in the middle of a Jan. thaw. Somehow I can't get too worked up over the end of winter. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Good job weatherNC. You have to keep in mind both camps of models are playing to their biases. Euro is guilty of hanging sw energy back to long and the GFS loves to jump/front load energy being to progressive. Not sure their is a middle ground since both are being stuborn with how they handle things. Usually you take the middle ground in situations like these, but really how can you. Its eitheir a capture or a miss in 72 hours. you cant capture part of the sw energy and leave the other part behind. I'm siding with the euro/ukie on this right now. If it misses, then it will be fun trying to see if the needle can be thread with a phase, Id like to see it in the NW GOm, Florida panhandle for MBY. I can do well with a phase off Jax/GA coast, but need negative tilt, not sure neutral will work out for me in that location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The 0Z runs tonight will have the winter Recon data, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The 0Z runs tonight will have the winter Recon data, right? Thinking yesterday 0z or 12z American models Tuesday would have this. not sure if the foreign models get privied to this info or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The 0Z runs tonight will have the winter Recon data, right? Yes, but the recon missions look to be of no sampling consequence in the medium range compared to last season when they were flying in the Pac between HI and AK, this is Teal 71, track A65, off the SE coast, C-130 is over C FL atm 000NOUS42 KNHC 171700 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1200 PM EST MON 17 JANUARY 2011 SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z JANUARY 2011 WSPOD NUMBER.....10-048 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. 3. REMARK: WC-130 WINTER STORM MISSIONS TASKED ON WSPOD 10-047 WILL FLY AS SCHEDULED. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: A. P68/20/1200Z/(DROP 11)50.3N 168.0E JWP 000NOUS42 KNHC 161830 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0130 PM EST SUN 16 JANUARY 2011 SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z JANUARY 2011 WSPOD NUMBER.....10-047 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 A. A65/ DROP 10 (STIFF)/ 18/0000Z B. AFXXX 10WSA TRACK65 C. 17/1800Z D. 10 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 18/0200Z FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72 A. A65/ DROP 10 (STIFF)/ 18/1200Z B. AFXXX 11WSA TRACK65 C. 18/0615Z D. 10 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 18/1400Z 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. 3. REMARK: WC-130 WINTER STORM MISSION TASKED ON WSPOD 10-046 WILL FLY AS SCHEDULED. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE. JWP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I already thought there was flights in the pacific....look at this artile, maybe I am reading it wrong? Western Pacific Recon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I already thought there was flights in the pacific....look at this artile, maybe I am reading it wrong? Western Pacific Recon You are not reading it wrong, but do we have any evidence to support this plane is flying atm, and where. I attempted to access the flight operations from that link and was denied based on a user "log in." The NHC flights were the ones referenced by the HPC as I understand, and those are off the SE coast. If anyone has more info on the Gulf stationed in Japan and what it is doing, please share. Also, thanks for pointing that out Pack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 thanks to you both. I'm not sure I understand why they would fly off the SE coast. It seems the PAC is what needs to be sampled. Anyway, regardless of how this plays out for our region I am always interested to see how these RECON missions affect the models. Edit: I forgot...there is a storm moving up the coast tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 You are not reading it wrong, but do we have any evidence to support this plane is flying atm, and where. I attempted to access the flight operations from that link and was denied based on a user "log in." The NHC flights were the ones referenced by the HPC as I understand, and those are off the SE coast. If anyone has more info on the Gulf stationed in Japan and what it is doing, please share. Also, thanks for pointing that out Pack! I thought they were just sending balloons out in the western states for the southern stream energy? It would make sense to do recon off the Atlantic if they are expecting a bomb up the coast. Just my two cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I thought they were just sending balloons out in the western states for the southern stream energy? It would make sense to do recon off the Atlantic if they are expecting a bomb up the coast. Just my two cents. Good point Burger. How do you get hte obs in your sig? I guess i need to browse to figure that one out. I figured I would ask a "technologically sound" young man first! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The next storm continues to trend much warmer and further north. Obviously this is probably an Ohio Valley runner with some very cold advection coming down behind it. Could be a quick dusting to 1" or so down into Tenn, but its such a quick mover most of the good snow will probably be further north into Ky and Ohio, and then a quick upslope event for e. Tn/W.NC. There may even be thunderstorms with such rapid deepening as its coming across the Apps, probably for Ga and the Carolinas overnight Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowflake29684 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 0z NAM is showing a huge bomb for the Northeast now so I am guessing the information is in the 0z runs!!! just a weenie guessing here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The next storm continues to trend much warmer and further north. Obviously this is probably an Ohio Valley runner with some very cold advection coming down behind it. Could be a quick dusting to 1" or so down into Tenn, but its such a quick mover most of the good snow will probably be further north into Ky and Ohio, and then a quick upslope event for e. Tn/W.NC. There may even be thunderstorms with such rapid deepening as its coming across the Apps, probably for Ga and the Carolinas overnight Thursday night. = So you do not see any shot at a period of snow for us? with the front crashing in, couldnt something pop for us? Sounds weenie I guess but looking at the 850's, it shows some precip after the front has crossed our area. Or is this precip shown BEFORE it crosses. I do not have the technical terms you pros have, but something still looks fishy to me in the 84-102hr timeframe? Thanks for schooling me here. Flame thrower away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 = So you do not see any shot at a period of snow for us? with the front crashing in, couldnt something pop for us? Sounds weenie I guess but looking at the 850's, it shows some precip after the front has crossed our area. Or is this precip shown BEFORE it crosses. I do not have the technical terms you pros have, but something still looks fishy to me in the 84-102hr timeframe? Thanks for schooling me here. Flame thrower away! I'm afraid nothing on this side of the mountains Jason. Just a typical cold front with showers, and maybe even thundestorms for us if it trends a little more dynamic, then into the freezer Friday with dropping temps during the day. Without the -NAO the pattern won't be supressed like models showed earlier. However, keep your eyes on next week. That precip you see is what falls ahead of the crashing 850's on this side of the mtns....we have downslope. Looks like Ky/Ohio to PA and maybe the Northeast get a decent snow from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Thanks Foothills! I figured as much. Just could not put it into words. Thanks again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 There's an abundance of cold air in Canada, but IMO, the lack of a strong -NAO to lock in the cold, keep it south, and supress the storm tracks across the deep south is going to be very difficult to overcome for snow chances over the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Ice storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Taking the GFS at face value, a SE winter lovers dream is coming to a crashing halt the next 10 days. Ugh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Ice storm? Yep. Definite potential there with the big hp in place. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 GFS spawns this thing, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 0z GFS keeps it cold through at least 300 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 0z GFS keeps it cold through at least 300 hr. We should probably just focus on the next event. Everyone wrote off tonight in the triad except for FH and JB. I'm sitting @ 31.3 and a frozen over driveway. Unless it warms up tonight, schools will be late tomorrow. It seems a decent hp in just the right spots ALWAYS overperforms. This one wasn't even supposed to be that close just a couple of days ago. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowflake29684 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 TARHEEL I HAVE NOT WROTE IT OFF YET I AM STILL HERE WITH YOU TOO!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Well, the 0z UKMET does not look as good as the 18z run in hanging energy pack, aka a miss, although more encouraging than the 0z American guidance. But, we still have some time for this to come into focus as the first parcel is off BC atm, not much room for error, and that normally implies a screw job around here, so the thread is narrowing on the tight rope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 euro still trying to hold onto the secondary low scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The 0z Euro looks to be real close to giving someone a wintry event at the 120 hour, but has our storm a bit too far off the coast for mine and other folks living further west liking unless you live closer to the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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