Cheeznado Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Actually the best thing about this pattern is the position of the EPAC ridge- it will stay put for a long time in a really good place for eastern systems to keep coming- too bad the Atlantic setup is not a lot better or we would really be golden here. The 240 hour Euro has another potential setup with a GOM low, and another strong short wave is digging in behind that one. So no matter how the early next week system pans out, I think we will be model watching for quite a while after that- eventually someone may hit another jackpot. See. I am not totally a "Debbie Downer"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Meant to say the next few panels showed another strong digging system and cold air around 9 and 10 days. With yet another very strong s/w in the western Canada. They are really lined up, so apparently we're about to embark on a really active period. The model has shown lots of activity atleast for a while. Not sure whats causing this, but I'd almost bet that a repeating pattern is about to transpire, with the big Eastern Canada vortex and mid nation-eastern US trough, full of possibilities over the next couple of weeks. Maybe the MJO has something to do with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Actually the best thing about this pattern is the position of the EPAC ridge- it will stay put for a long time in a really good place for eastern systems to keep coming- too bad the Atlantic setup is not a lot better or we would really be golden here. The 240 hour Euro has another potential setup with a GOM low, and another strong short wave is digging in behind that one. So no matter how the early next week system pans out, I think we will be model watching for quite a while after that- eventually someone may hit another jackpot. See. I am not totally a "Debbie Downer"... Sorry I couldn't help myself: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Sorry I couldn't help myself: HAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Now that is CLASSIC. Cheez is the da man though! He keeps us weenies "even keeled" and provides great analysis! Wwe are blessed to have the superbowl team of Pro's in the SE, I shall say... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Actually the best thing about this pattern is the position of the EPAC ridge- it will stay put for a long time in a really good place for eastern systems to keep coming- too bad the Atlantic setup is not a lot better or we would really be golden here. The 240 hour Euro has another potential setup with a GOM low, and another strong short wave is digging in behind that one. So no matter how the early next week system pans out, I think we will be model watching for quite a while after that- eventually someone may hit another jackpot. See. I am not totally a "Debbie Downer"... Yeah, once those LP's made there way into Greenland , it's like pulling teeth to get a full fledged block there again it seems. Hp's to the west and east of that weakness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 HAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Now that is CLASSIC. Cheez is the da man though! He keeps us weenies "even keeled" and provides great analysis! Wwe are blessed to have the superbowl team of Pro's in the SE, I shall say... I'll 2nd that comment!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Ukmet also has the strong Canada vortex and active southern stream at 120 and 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Actually the best thing about this pattern is the position of the EPAC ridge- it will stay put for a long time in a really good place for eastern systems to keep coming- too bad the Atlantic setup is not a lot better or we would really be golden here. The 240 hour Euro has another potential setup with a GOM low, and another strong short wave is digging in behind that one. So no matter how the early next week system pans out, I think we will be model watching for quite a while after that- eventually someone may hit another jackpot. See. I am not totally a "Debbie Downer"... I use to get PO'd at Cheez's posts, but the thing is, if he's optimistic, you mind as well book it....just reference the storm a week ago. Yeah, it's interesting that the EPAC ridge is in an ideal spot IMO, just off the west coast. We were complaining about the Pacific being terrible back in Dec. and that has now turned around. Just got to hope for a little more -NAO blocking than currently being modeled and/or a little stronger ridging in the EPAC. There's an abundance of cold air in Canada ready to be tapped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 So I assume you are PBP on the Euro? You say NC being last for the warm to take over? Are you reading prolonged snow, with change to ice, taking this run into account? Thanks Foothills, Not sure if you overlooked this or not. This is a reply to you earlier when you were analyzing the Euro. Thanks for any input. Jason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Big run, no doubt... If the EC shows the development again, something is up. I could consider two Euro runs in a row that show something at this range, as outliers, but 3 runs in a row, and within 5 days, that is hard to ignore. Here is hoping it holds the course, and if anything, we have seen a slight trend in that direction today from the 12z runs, but not much so it is still all alone. A general consensus would indicate a weak area of lp forming on the tail end, but too far ots to give us anything, and that seems the most likely scenario imo. That was EXACTLY my line of thinking with the Christmas storm. We had 3 straight runs of the Euro in the 3-4 day range showing the best storm I would EVER see in my LIFETIME...but it didn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Robert the jma looks like the euro. Maybe just a little colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Foothills, Not sure if you overlooked this or not. This is a reply to you earlier when you were analyzing the Euro. Thanks for any input. Jason I'd say its way too early yet to say snow here, but the pieces are on this run. PNA ridge , strong s/w sparks Gulf low, and 50/50 low in place with arctic high on both sides of the Apps. Thats roughtly 6 to 7 days away. We'll see how it trends, as the op. models have been off a lot at this range. Other models have a similar setup, so I think the odds for a Winter storm in the Southeast are a little higher than usual for sometime next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'd say its way too early yet to say snow here, but the pieces are on this run. PNA ridge , strong s/w sparks Gulf low, and 50/50 low in place with arctic high on both sides of the Apps. Thats roughtly 6 to 7 days away. We'll see how it trends, as the op. models have been off a lot at this range. Other models have a similar setup, so I think the odds for a Winter storm in the Southeast are a little higher than usual for sometime next week. Thank you. very much! I cannot wait to see the ensemble spread. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Robert the jma looks like the euro. Maybe just a little colder. indeed it does. Very similar. The zero runs from south of Columbia to northern Texas, with strong digging 5H system in the Southern Plains, excellent 5H look. Sort of looks like Jan 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 indeed it does. Very similar. The zero runs from south of Columbia to northern Texas, with strong digging 5H system in the Southern Plains, excellent 5H look. Sort of looks like Jan 96. Now don't open that can of worms just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Now don't open that can of worms just yet. all I said was the setup is similar. Not saying its going to happen. That storm wasn't snowy enough here. Hopefully we get a south trend on future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Sort of looks like Jan 96. Side Note: Yeah, I got my OBS to work! Although January 1996 wasn't all that great in Raleigh (I think it was a 4-6" storm here with some ice and all that). Now if you talk about January 2000 on the other hand... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 all I said was the setup is similar. Not saying its going to happen. That storm wasn't snowy enough here. Hopefully we get a south trend on future runs. Oh I know, and I agree that the 96 storm wasn't an ideal storm for us like some may think. Sleet killed us at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 But will the CAD end up stronger than the Op run? This -NAO is weaker (only about a -1) and is east-based. Therefore the Op run's forecast of the surface HP in the vcty of Maine seems reasonable to me. If the center of the high is up there then the ATL scenario would probably be: a quick burst of snow that does not stick, then a period of marginal ice with temps rising to about 34. NE GA up to NC does need to watch out for a pretty major ice event perhaps. We have had ice before with a high in that position. IIRC one had the high was actually centered in canada. It all depends on the setup and how cold the parent high/source region is. Another rule of thumb I mentioned the other day and that works pretty well is at the time the precip starts, if 850mb temps are 0c or colder down to north carolina, there is a good shot of freezing rain if 850s aren't too warm here. In fact the euro has 0c down into georgia right before it moves in before warming up. And the Euro has 850s generally 4c or less during the storm which isn't too bad. It's also a plus if the high moves into position at least 12 to 24 hours ahead of time which gives enough time for the cold air to get here. Based on the surface temps, in this case it should be. Euro has 2 meter temps in the upper 20s/lower 30s monday morning. The rain starts in the afternoon it looks like but euro warms us to around 40 that day. I don't know what the dewpoints are when it starts, But I'm not sure how well the euro handles evaporational cooling. It's hard to picture us starting out below freezing then warming to 40 despite evaporational cooling and lack of really warm waa aloft. If this comes in a little earlier, say monday morning, ice would be a problem for us in north Ga and probably regardless of start time, the western carolinas would see it...especially western nc. It seems to be a repeated phrase here lately but it's a long ways off so the details..and even the entire system it's showing is irrelevant at this point,especially with the waffling of the models in this range. However, I just saw the canadian and uk..so maybe not as irrelevant as I thought since they show something similar. The canadian especially looks very good for a winter storm here. Hopefully future runs remain consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 FFC must like what the Canadian is cooking or something...New zone forecast for Dalton,GA Thursday: A 30 percent chance of rain after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 51. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph. Thursday Night: Rain likely before 1am, then snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Friday: A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Sunny, with a high near 34. Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 FFC must like what the Canadian is cooking or something...New zone forecast for Dalton,GA Thursday: A 30 percent chance of rain after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 51. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph. Thursday Night: Rain likely before 1am, then snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Friday: A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Sunny, with a high near 34. Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 17 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 342 PM EST TUE JAN 18 2011 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS RAIN MOVING E TO NE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO...TENNESSEE...AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CLOSED LOW IS CENTERED OVER OH/IN AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES TONIGHT. THE RAIN OVER OUR AREA SHOULD BE EAST OF THE STATE BY DAY BREAK AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS RIDGE WILL STAY OVER GA THROUGH MID DAY THU AS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE STATES FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. CURRENTLY...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY WITH EITHER OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM. THE BIGGEST THREAT LOOKS LIKE SOME WINTER PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING. TEMPS THU NIGHT WILL GET DOWN TO OR BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF I 20. LOOKING FOR RAIN TURNING TO A RAIN/SNOW/FREEZING RAIN MIX FROM ROME TO GAINESVILLE SOUTH TO A CARROLLTON TO ATHENS LINE. AREAS NORTH OF THAT SHOULD SEE RAIN TURNING TO SNOW JUST BEFORE THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA BY BY 12-18Z FRI. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT JUST MOVES THROUGH TO FAST TO CREATE ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS. LOOKING FOR LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS EXTREME N GA AND NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE OR SNOW SOUTH OF THAT. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ACTIVE FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE LONG TERM WITH SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE GFS/ECMWF. THE ABOVE MENTIONED THURSDAY SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE EXPECTED MON. THE MODELS ARE STILL HAVING SOME TIMING AND INTENSITY ISSUES WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE GFS FOR CONTINUITY AND BRING IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY/MON NIGHT. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Oops did not even look but even Atlanta in the mix: Thursday: A 30 percent chance of rain after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 56. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph. Thursday Night: Rain likely before 1am, then rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Friday: Sunny, with a high near 40. Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 it's a big map, but i'll take my chances. 144 hr JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 OK, I'll ask for us who are challenged when it comes to map reading, what are we looking at here? It's sure is pretty though. Almost as pretty as the DGEX snow maps. it's a big map, but i'll take my chances. 144 hr JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 At 90 hours to 102 hours a new s/w diving very far south causes Southeast Coastal development, gives coastal Carolinas some light snow. At 108 hours, the low is 1000 mb about 150 miles off ILM, several inches of snow for ne SC and eastern NC At 120, the coastal NC is drifing out (looks like a good snow eastern NC!) and then a strong cutoff over the southern Rockies. How many runs has the Euro showed this for coastal SC? That is Saturday night, right? TIA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Surprised that FFC has even put snow in my forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 OK, I'll ask for us who are challenged when it comes to map reading, what are we looking at here? It's sure is pretty though. Almost as pretty as the DGEX snow maps. 500mb heights (contours) and vorticity (color). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 it's a big map, but i'll take my chances. 144 hr JMA Yeah, that's a look I could get use to. Nice ridging in SW Canada that digs the vort max south into New Mexico....with blocking vortex in SE Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Thanks. I'm assuming the big ticket item is the energy dropping down through the 4 corners? 500mb heights (contours) and vorticity (color). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 OK, I'll ask for us who are challenged when it comes to map reading, what are we looking at here? It's sure is pretty though. Almost as pretty as the DGEX snow maps. Saw wow answered it, but I had my own question does the vorticity control the lowering of heights? Never mind just googled and found this great link: http://www.theweatherprediction.com/charts/500/basics/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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