NegativeTilt Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I call your attention to that strong line of convection in the big bend of Texas. I hope that is not the robbery train. Must say though the moisture looks impressive. saw that nasty hook echo over CC a few mins ago....rude awakening for some there...public reported a tornado on the ground... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Good morning everyone! Lots of moisture headed this way, Texas returns are impressive http://www.daculaweather.com/ridge_texas_master.php The Louisiana radar is the one to start watching http://www.daculaweather.com/ridge_louisiana_master.php. Also, returns are now showing up on the GRLevel3 radar from Jackson MS This is going to be one awesome day not matter what! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KO0588 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 It's not a good sign when you don't even have a WSW and all counties south and east of you do, when you're under 24 hour start time. lol hey just remember you're covered under Blacksburg, while everybody south and east of Caswell co. of you is under Raleigh, it was like that for the Christmas storm also they just are a little slower at issuing them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 hey just remember you're covered under Blacksburg, while everybody south and east of you is under Raleigh, it was like that for the Christmas storm also they just are a little slower at issuing them! Yea I know, I read their diss and they have pretty low confidence on qpf, Because of you guess it DRY AIR But you're right they always wait till last minute. I think they said maybe 2-3 inches which would be WWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Just got up. Great disco last night folks. Under a WSW fro 3-6 as GSP also has upped the totals from last night. I assume if Radar trends look good today and the RUC and SREF models continue to show a good hit here in WNC. Total might bump up.. Awesome! AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 314 AM EST SUN JAN 9 2011 .SYNOPSIS... -- Changed Discussion --HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COLD AIR FROM CANADA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AND UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO FEED A VERY COLD AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WHILE PIEDMONT AREAS WILL NOT REACH 40...ALL BUT THE LOWEST VALLEYS IN THE NC MTNS WILL ONCE AGAIN FAIL TO REACH FREEZING. OTHERWISE...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE ONLY ITEM OF INTEREST TODAY. POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM SW TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BY MIDNIGHT...A BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-TO-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD BE APPROACHING EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA. ALTHOUGH FORCING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH TIME...AS THE VORT MAX MOVES INTO THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...THE BAND OF PRECIP SHOULD BE MAINTAINED BY SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AND ENHANCED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER IN SITU CAD AIRMASS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT GULF COAST CONVECTION POTENTIALLY DISRUPTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...TRAJECTORY FORECASTS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE FEEDING THE FRONTOGENETICAL BAND SHOULD ORIGINATE IN AREAS LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OF ANY CONVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS TONIGHT ARE WELL BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...SO P-TYPE (ALL SNOW) IS NOT AN ISSUE THROUGH 12Z. THIS LEAVES QPF/ACCUMS AND TIMING AS THE ONLY MYSTERIES TO SOLVE. THE SHORT TERM MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT THAT QPF WILL RANGE FROM .25 TO .4 INCHES THROUGH 12Z WEST OF I-26 IN SC...AND IN THE AREA SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 74 IN THE NC MTNS. THIS WOULD YIELD A SOLID 3 OR 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN THESE AREAS BY SUNRISE. IN TERMS OF TIMING...THESE EVENTS TYPICALLY SEEM TO START A BIT EARLIER THAN FORECAST BY THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. INDEED...THE SREF SHOWS QUITE A WIDE RANGE IN ONSET TIMING AMONG ITS INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS (AS EARLY AS 03Z AND AS LATE AS 09Z FOR THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY.) WE HAVE THEREFORE FAVORED THE FASTER ONSET OFFERED BY THE SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN... SPREADING CATEGORICAL POPS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY 12Z.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT REACHES THE SRN APPALACHIANS MON. SOME DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD REACH THE REGION MON MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW REFLECTION NEAR THE FL PANHANDLE BY 18Z MON. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MORE SNOW THAN ANY OTHER PTYPE DURING THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE...AS THEY SEEM TO BE GRADUALLY GETTING A BETTER HANDLE ON THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. QPF AMOUNTS...HOWEVER..CONTINUE TO POSE THE GREATEST QUESTION. CONVECTION FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO SE GA ON MON COULD INHIBIT MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE REGION. THE GFS SEEMS MORE REASONABLE WITH THE LOWER QPF FOR THIS REASON. SLIGHTLY LOWER QPF THAN PREVIOUSLY...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER PROFILES THAN PREVIOUSLY...YIELDS A SIMILAR SNOW FORECAST. BASED ON ANTICIPATED 12 TO 24 HOUR SNOW ACCUMS RANGING FROM 6 TO 9 INCHES IN THE SW MOUNTAINS TO 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS CHARLOTTE METRO...WILL GO AHEAD AND POST A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WATCH WILL BE RETAINED TO THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN ALL MOS SOURCES ON MON WITH THE PRECIP ONSET INTO THE DRY AIR. THE POTENTIAL FOR ICING THEN BECOMES THE FOCUS THROUGH THE MON NIGHT PERIOD. WEAK DEFORMATION FORCING COULD LINGER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NC PIEDMONT...AS THE COASTAL WATERS LOW SLOWLY DEEPENS AGAIN. ADDITIONAL WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT NEAR THE EXIT REGION OF THE TRAILING JET STREAK WILL ARRIVE MON NIGHT AS WELL. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRONG MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH WILL WRAP SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA FROM SW TO NE MON NIGHT. THE SUDDEN DRYING WILL ALLOW ANY LINGERING PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS ICE NUCLEI DISAPPEAR. HOWEVER...IT COULD TAKE MOST OF THE NIGHT FOR A COMPLETE CHANGEOVER TO REACH THE NRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE LIMITED QPF...ICE ACCUMS SHOULD STILL BE LESS A TENTH OF AN INCH MOST AREAS. THE NRN CONUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP EWD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE MON NIGHT TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY BY LATE TUE. ALL OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE REGION BY TUE...BUT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD LINGER GIVEN THE SW FLOW AND MOIST LOW LEVELS. WENT MUCH COOLER THAN MOS AGAIN FOR TUE TEMPS WITH SLOWLY DISSIPATING CAD BETWEEN THE COASTAL AND OH VALLEY SYSTEMS. STRONGLY CHANNELED VORTICITY ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP 500 MB SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE FAR NRN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...BUT ANY QPF WOULD BE QUITE LIMITED. A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND IN INCREASING NW FLOW MOISTURE NEAR THE TN BORDER TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE UPSLOPE PREFERRED SECTIONS OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH WED.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Just got up. Great disco last night folks. Under a WSW fro 3-6 as GSP also has upped the totals from last night. I assume if Radar trends look good today and the RUC and SREF models continue to show a good hit here in WNC. Total might bump up.. Awesome! Have gotten a little work done this morning but had to get on to see this!! mmmmm Tonight: Snow, mainly after 1am. Low around 27. Calm wind becoming northeast around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Monday: Snow before 3pm, then snow and sleet. High near 32. East wind between 9 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Monday Night: Sleet likely before 10pm, then freezing drizzle likely. Cloudy, with a low around 30. East wind between Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 As of last nights thoughts. They place you in solid 7" range.... Long day here!! Have gotten a little work done this morning but had to get on to see this!! mmmmm Tonight: Snow, mainly after 1am. Low around 27. Calm wind becoming northeast around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Monday: Snow before 3pm, then snow and sleet. High near 32. East wind between 9 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Monday Night: Sleet likely before 10pm, then freezing drizzle likely. Cloudy, with a low around 30. East wind between Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Wow love the current radar and love that GSP up my totals to 4.8. GAME ON folks. All this worrying was for not and it's a lesson in why you should listen to the mets. Everything is in our favor right now we just gotta hope this baby over performs. Even if it doesn't and GSP is right, there are going to be a ton of happy people tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 My only concern is the convection in southern Texas, but I believe that as the storm moves east, the convection will weaken and not be an issue. This will be the best weather watching day in my adult life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looks great to me: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 If you look at the 6hr panel of the 6z GFS you can see how it's underplaying it. Our system right now looks a little faster and more robust IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm thinking it should be beginning in Atlanta around midnight, is that about the time frame you see it at now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Morning all. What in the world are we doing up so early? Sunday morning no less! NAM, GFS, and RUC all show the slp should be 1004 mb. It is still onshore wsw of Corpus @ 1000mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Did anyone else get colder than expected last night? I'm currently 4 degrees below forecast low and it's still falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bta0812 Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm at 19. Believe forecast was 21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I'm thinking it should be beginning in Atlanta around midnight, is that about the time frame you see it at now? Yea I would say 12 - 2...hoping we get a 6ish start which would just be fantastic. I'll tell you what though I wouldn't be surprised if you guys saw a few rouge bands show up and drop a little something. It really feels like this baby will over perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Did anyone else get colder than expected last night? I'm currently 4 degrees below forecast low and it's still falling. 16 here...I believe the forecast low was somewhere around 20? I didn't really look last night, but I think I would have remembered 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Did anyone else get colder than expected last night? I'm currently 4 degrees below forecast low and it's still falling. Makes you wonder about FCC's comment regarding temps not being able to "push on down" and being "above forecasted lows". I think they are a bunch of worry warts, although their WSW was a little more bullish than their 9pm disco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 16 here...I believe the forecast low was somewhere around 20? I didn't really look last night, but I think I would have remembered 16. Got down to 9 so far here north of Nashville, forecasted low of 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Nice am disco from FFC. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/text.php?pil=ATLAFDFFC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Did anyone else get colder than expected last night? I'm currently 4 degrees below forecast low and it's still falling. Same here around the corner from Buckeye...down to 16 currently, forecast was 20. Implications for tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Here is the TWC simulated radar out to 6 hours..the problem with this is that it always underplays the moisture...even so it still looks good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NegativeTilt Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 forecast low was 20...sitting @ 16.5 balmy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looks like to me everyone here is 4 degrees colder than forecasted. If we can carry that forward as a trend, we're gonna be sitting pretty. I just don't want the sun to come up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Looks like to me everyone here is 4 degrees colder than forecasted. If we can carry that forward as a trend, we're gonna be sitting pretty. I just don't want the sun to come up! NC Mnts. falling in line with this. Forecasted low was 10°. I am at 5.1° & still falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 New BMX AFD I like their comment here I AM STILL HAVING TREMENDOUS DIFFICULTY IN PINPOINTING THETRANSITION AREAS. ONCE THE PRECIPITATION PROCESSES START THENUMERICAL PROFILES ARE OFTEN TIMES INCORRECT...SO IN A FORECASTING MODE...IT IS BEST TO GIVE OR TAKE 30 TO 50 MILES OR SOMETIMES A LOT MORE FOR A PROPER TRANSITION ZONE. WE COULD GO ON AND ON ABOUT WARMING OR COOLING A LAYER OR DYNAMIC COOLING ZONES THANKS TO HEAVY PRECIP...BUT OUR TIME IS SHORT. IN THE END...IT IS UNWISE TO GET CAUGHT UP IN MODEL SOUNDINGS TO MAKE MESOSCALE PTYPE DETERMINATIONS OR ZONES...THE MODELS WILL BE WRONG NEARLY EVERY TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 A Rather important am disco out of BHM. Does Foothills work there? FXUS64 KBMX 091044 AFDBMX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 444 AM CST SUN JAN 9 2011 .DISCUSSION... A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS CURRENTLY INBOUND AS THE GULF LOW IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT WITH TIME BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OFF THE SOUTHERN LOUISIANA COAST. THIS SEEMS TO BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE...HOWEVER...AS IT...ALONG WITH ITS RATHER WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL PICK UP PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE AS THEY TRANSLATE EASTWARD. AS OF THIS MORNING...THE STAGE IS BEING SET AS TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH AS SOME CAA CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE. THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN EAST LATER TODAY...KEEPING THE COLD AIR WEDGE AND MORE IMPORTANTLY THE DEWPOINTS RATHER DRY...TRY THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST FOLKS THIS MORNING. THAT DOES MAKE THE TEMPERATURES RATHER COMPLEX FOR LATER TODAY...AS SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE PRECIP ARRIVES. WE MAY EVEN GET INTO THE LOWER 40S WAY DOWN SOUTH BEFORE THE TREMENDOUS WET-BULBING EFFECT TAKES US BACK TO BELOW FREEZING. FOR THE MOST PART SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT THE CONCERN WITH THE FORECAST...AS IT LOOKS EVERYONE WILL STAY BELOW THE 32 MARK FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT...THANKS TO THAT WET-BULBING EFFECT. NOW ON TO OTHER CONCERNS. OUT OF THE GATE...I HAD BEEN WATCHING THE DRYING TREND ACROSS THE HEART OF CENTRAL ALABAMA AS MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS SOME CONVECTION OUT OVER THE GULF WATERS. THAT SAID...WHEN LOOKING AT THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND NEGATIVE PVU...THERE WILL BE A DECENT BAND OF MESOSCALE LIFT THAT LOOKS TO FORM NEAR SOUTH CENTRAL MS AND TRANSLATE RATHER QUICKLY NORTHEAST TO TCL...BHM...AND EVENTUALLY GADSDEN BY MIDNIGHT OR THEREABOUT. MODEL QPF JUST DOESN`T MATCH THAT FEATURE...SO HAVE DISCOUNTED SOME OF THE LOWER AMOUNTS BY KEEPING THE GENERAL 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY MORE ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. OF COURSE...THE MESOSCALE DETAILS OF THIS FEATURE WILL OBVIOUSLY BE DETERMINED IN A MORE NOWCASTING SCENARIO...BUT I WILL HAVE TO RELY ON THE NUMERICAL OUTPUT FOR THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC LOOK AND FEEL OF THE SETUP. STILL...THE MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE ATMOSPHERE...AND IF THE FEATURE IS REAL...THERE WILL BE THAT OPPORTUNITY EARLY MONDAY MORNING TO SEE A HEAVY SNOW BAND DEVELOP...WILL BE INTERESTING. THE NEXT OBVIOUS CHALLENGE IS THE PRECIP TYPE...AS ONCE AGAIN...IT SEEMS THE BHM CWA IS RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRANSITION. WITH THE TREMENDOUS WET-BULBING EARLY ON...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST EVERYONE...EVEN THE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES WILL AT LEAST START AS SNOW. HOWEVER...RATHER QUICKLY...THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT NOT ONLY BRINGS MOISTURE...BUT LOTS OF GULF HEAT TO FORM A SIGNIFICANT WARM NOSE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE UNDERGLIDE. THIS WILL CAUSE MAJOR TROUBLE AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE WARM NOSE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY MELT ANY ICE CRYSTALLIZATION...AND THEN REFREEZE ON CONTACT WITH THE SURFACE. THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU ARE...THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS TO HAPPEN. THERE MAY BE A ZONE NORTH OF THE FREEZING RAIN MARK...WHERE MORE SLEET THAN SNOW MAY EXIST AS SOME DRYING BEGINS TO OCCUR IN THE DENTRITIC GROWTH ZONE. ONE THING THAT FORECASTERS SHOULD WATCH CLOSELY IS THE DRYING THAT TAKES PLACE...SAY ABOVE -10C...WHERE IT IS SATURATED AT LOWER LEVELS. THIS SHOULD BEGIN OCCURRING CLOSER TO SUNRISE ON MONDAY AND TRANSITION FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA. IT IS LOOKING LIKE FOLKS IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES MAY STAY PRIMARILY SNOW WITH SOME IP MIXTURE WORKING IN NEAR THE END OF THE EVENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. I AM STILL HAVING TREMENDOUS DIFFICULTY IN PINPOINTING THE TRANSITION AREAS. ONCE THE PRECIPITATION PROCESSES START THE NUMERICAL PROFILES ARE OFTEN TIMES INCORRECT...SO IN A FORECASTING MODE...IT IS BEST TO GIVE OR TAKE 30 TO 50 MILES OR SOMETIMES A LOT MORE FOR A PROPER TRANSITION ZONE. WE COULD GO ON AND ON ABOUT WARMING OR COOLING A LAYER OR DYNAMIC COOLING ZONES THANKS TO HEAVY PRECIP...BUT OUR TIME IS SHORT. IN THE END...IT IS UNWISE TO GET CAUGHT UP IN MODEL SOUNDINGS TO MAKE MESOSCALE PTYPE DETERMINATIONS OR ZONES...THE MODELS WILL BE WRONG NEARLY EVERY TIME. BOTTOM LINE...MOST...IF NOT ALL...FOLKS WILL LIKELY START AS SNOW SUNDAY EVENING AS THE PRECIP SHIELD SPREADS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. AFTER JUST A SHORT WHILE...THE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES WILL TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AND THIS TRANSITION WILL SLOWLY WORK FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. FOLKS SOUTH WILL DEAL WITH VERY LITTLE...IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...WHILE FOLKS NORTH WILL GET THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT...THEN A GLAZING OF ICE OVER TOP AS THE EVENT ENDS. THE ICE SEEMS TO BE THE BIGGER THREAT TO FOLKS IN THE SOUTH THAN SNOW...HENCE THE UPGRADE TO AN ICE STORM WARNING SOUTH OF I20. WITHIN THE ICE STORM WARNING...YOU MAY GET YOUR 2 INCHES OF SNOW...BUT AGAIN...THE ICE THAT WILL FOLLOW WILL BRING THE MOST DANGER. PLEASE MAKE PREPARATIONS NOW TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM THIS SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT. 17/KLAWS && .AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION. CURRENTLY WATCHING SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...AND NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED FROM 6-10 KTS. AS THE ANTICIPATED WINTER STORM MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA...DECIDED TO PLACE WINTRY PRECIP IN THE TAFS FOR TCL...BHM...EET...AND MGM FOR PLANNING PURPOSES. LOWER CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT TCL AROUND 20Z TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH -SN EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING...INCREASING TO SN THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. -SN WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT BHM AND EET LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. MGM WILL ALSO SEE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. DECIDED NOT TO PLACE FZRA IN THE TAF FOR MGM AND TOI FOR NOW...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ADDED IN LATER FORECAST PERIODS...AS THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO FZRA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR UPCOMING FORECASTS...AS SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM 3-6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES...WITH SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN UP TO ONE HALF INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS MGM AND TOI. NOTICE...KEET TAF WILL HAVE (AMD LTD TO VIS WIND AND WX) AMENDED TO THE END OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE 2010/2011 WINTER SEASON. THE CEILOMETER DATA WILL BE GOING THROUGH NUMEROUS TESTS AND MONITORED FOR ACCURACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Returns are picking up on the Jackson MS GRlevel3 radar http://www.daculawea...torm_mode_1.php No precip reports from the METARS yet. It's 32 in Jackson so anything falling is going to bring the temp down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I really like this wide radar view but it loads slowly. It loads 36 different radar sites so please be patient. It makes it nice to see the bigger picture as it unfolds http://www.daculaweather.com/ridge_southeast_wide_master.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Started an Obs thread just for this storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.