HarveyLeonardFan Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 All this Messenger bashing is ridiculous. I don't know any of you guys. I don't have a dog in this fight. But from my non-partisan perspective there wasn't a forecaster in the business including on this site who did a better job analyzing this storm from start to finish. Messenger was the first one to discover this Satruday night threat long before anyone on this site or any of the local tv Mets. As for the Cape...he had a 15 mile bust with areas that picked up 4-5 inches. He did a heck of a lot better than BOX. I know some of you guys think the world doesn't exist when you cross the Bourne Bridge....but there are huge areas in SNE that busted per BOX forecast. Messenger shat on their forecast and he became bearish on this event at a time when most were becoming bullish. BOX was forecasting 4-8 for the entire South Coast and it had a winter storm warming out for the entire area. Except for a few spot 5 inch amts. on parts of the Cape no one in the warning area eclipsed 4 inches. I'm in Newport. You can't get any more South Coast than me and I had 2 inches. Messenger, along with Ryan were saying NE CT would be getting more than the South Coast warning areas. Yes, Messenger is a raging contrarian and this ruffles a lot of feathers but I enjoy his commentary and hope it continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Phil is screwing with messanger and we can tell he is now getting frustrated. There is no real bashing going on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 I don't even know what the argument is about here but just looking from the outside it seems like most of the Cape got 1-3" with a spot area of 3-5" in Yarmouth/Dennis/Harwich. Scott said early the warning would bust and that the advisory would bust too and that seems to have happened in most areas. Phil jackpotted with the locally higher totals. There's actually a solid area of 4-7" but it's only about 6 miles wide on rte 6 (it may be different n/s of there)...an overall band maybe 15-16 miles wide is very sharp that has 2.5 to 5" Everywhere else that I could see is a dusting to 2.5" would absolutely cover it and to be 100% honest I never measured even 2" anywhere outside of that band and I tried. Again not saying there are not spots away from Rte 6 that didn't get more...but this has been brewing for awhile and I'm getting tired of it. And to those that asked, I had to be down Cape today anyway. Truth be told I may have taken the ride anyway, I think these events are pretty cool and this did not dissapoint. It's a really cool sharp line and it's clear to see some of the dynamics involved when you go from next to no powder (west of exit 6) to "powder" exit 6 to about 8 where the snow takes a different quality and there's a lot of it. Soon as you get further east it drops off but more gradual. I bet there was a decent temp boundary right around exit 7 at the height of the band. It's like you said, the warning would have/did bust for a huge portion along Rte 6 as did the advisory. No biggie, I feel terrible for the forecasters that have had to try to ascertain what's going on. Nobody cares about the bust, and I've said all along I have a lot of compassion for NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 On the Cape it's very fickle, very subtle elevation changes and proximity to oceans/bays/inlets can make snowfall differences. You can take 10 pictures along the water and see marginal accumulations then 3 miles inland up to 3-5" on elevated surfaces, for ex... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruschi Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Only received 1.5" at my house in centerville:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 All this Messenger bashing is ridiculous. I don't know any of you guys. I don't have a dog in this fight. But from my non-partisan perspective there wasn't a forecaster in the business including on this site who did a better job analyzing this storm from start to finish. Messenger was the first one to discover this Satruday night threat long before anyone on this site or any of the local tv Mets. As for the Cape...he had a 15 mile bust with areas that picked up 4-5 inches. He did a heck of a lot better than BOX. I know some of you guys think the world doesn't exist when you cross the Bourne Bridge....but there are huge areas in SNE that busted per BOX forecast. Messenger shat on their forecast and he became bearish on this event at a time when most were becoming bullish. BOX was forecasting 4-8 for the entire South Coast and it had a winter storm warming out for the entire area. Except for a few spot 5 inch amts. on parts of the Cape no one in the warning area eclipsed 4 inches. I'm in Newport. You can't get any more South Coast than me and I had 2 inches. Messenger, along with Ryan were saying NE CT would be getting more than the South Coast warning areas. Yes, Messenger is a raging contrarian and this ruffles a lot of feathers but I enjoy his commentary and hope it continues. I don't want it to be thought that I was dumping on anyone elses forecast. It's a tough situation with the models and I said that I understood why NOAA was doing what they were doing. When I misread the warning at 11 last night I was wondering WTH but they'd changed it and I hadn't referehed. Leaving the advisory at that point was fine even though really it too busted for most of the Cape. Phil is screwing with messanger and we can tell he is now getting frustrated. There is no real bashing going on here. Are you sure it's not the other way around? -- Totals from the Cape, the 2.5" in Bourne kind of sticks out but it's probably the same employee that always does a very very good job, so maybe there's more over by the base which is where I'm assuming this came from. I'd report that there is 6-7" around exit 8 on Rte 6. These reports overall fit pretty well to what I observed and what you see in the photos. ...BARNSTABLE COUNTY... YARMOUTH 4.3 735 AM 1/09 HAM RADIO SOUTH DENNIS 4.0 735 AM 1/09 HAM RADIO WEST HARWICH 3.5 800 AM 1/09 SPOTTER CHATHAM 3.0 700 AM 1/09 CO-OP OBSERVER BOURNE 2.5 800 AM 1/09 NWS EMPLOYEE EAST FALMOUTH 2.1 718 AM 1/09 TRAINED SPOTTER SAGAMORE 1.5 734 AM 1/09 HAM RADIO HYANNIS 1.5 736 AM 1/09 HAM RADIO EASTHAM 1.5 729 AM 1/09 HAM RADIO EAST SANDWICH 0.7 730 AM 1/09 CO-OP OBSERVER ...PLYMOUTH COUNTY... HALIFAX 3.6 912 AM 1/09 SPOTTER HANSON 3.5 1000 AM 1/09 AMATEUR RADIO MIDDLEBORO 3.0 700 AM 1/09 CO-OP OBSERVER BRIDGEWATER 3.0 700 AM 1/09 CO-OP OBSERVER DUXBURY 3.0 740 AM 1/09 TRAINED SPOTTER MANOMET 2.0 925 AM 1/09 SPOTTER HINGHAM 1.8 1045 AM 1/09 CO-OP OBSERVER BROCKTON 1.5 857 AM 1/09 SPOTTER PLYMOUTH 1.3 736 AM 1/09 HAM RADIO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 BOX nailed the forecast for the East slope of the Berks last night. Called for 1-2", I ended up with 1.5" (includes what's fallen today .25"). No complaints with a double digit snowpack that looks to deepen substantially by mid -week. Overall BOX does an excellent job with a very diverse CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 On the Cape it's very fickle, very subtle elevation changes and proximity to oceans/bays/inlets can make snowfall differences. You can take 10 pictures along the water and see marginal accumulations then 3 miles inland up to 3-5" on elevated surfaces, for ex... It is but the elbow isn't that wide and I covered both sides of it running quick errands. There's just not much snow from PTown to Eastham. Family/friends etc, my own measurements and Phil's report here says 1-2" along that stretch. Water didn't seem to have much to do with it, there's a lot of snow right by Sesuit Harbor too. You can see on the radar that there was probably some OES enhancement right at the end along where Phil lives that extended it beyond the initial burst that kind of vaporized. http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KBOX∏=bref1&bkgr=black&endDate=20110109&endTime=-1&duration=12 Only received 1.5" at my house in centerville:( We'll get our shots I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 We'll get our shots I hope. Wednesday is looking good. GFS ensembles have you jack-potted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Wednesday is looking good. GFS ensembles have you jack-potted. LOL they had me jackpotted this time too for days. I'm jumping over to the other thread plus I need to go sledding...haha not... I understand all the reasoning behind why this storm should behave differently and the models should be better but will believe it when I see it Tuesday night. It's good to see relative consistency and predictable bias at this stage though (CMC/UK OTS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 just talked to my folks in eastham - less out there. they were guessing 1-2" but very wet failure I'll be the first to admit I busted in the lowering of totals for the exit 7 to 11 area and was a touch low later. But I wasn't trying to claim I was right anywhere else, or make any other point. IIt is what it is, was a tough forecast for everyone but I'm thinking as you would say this was a "failure" too. touché Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruschi Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 It is but the elbow isn't that wide and I covered both sides of it running quick errands. There's just not much snow from PTown to Eastham. Family/friends etc, my own measurements and Phil's report here says 1-2" along that stretch. Water didn't seem to have much to do with it, there's a lot of snow right by Sesuit Harbor too. You can see on the radar that there was probably some OES enhancement right at the end along where Phil lives that extended it beyond the initial burst that kind of vaporized. http://www.rap.ucar....=-1&duration=12 We'll get our shots I hope. wow pretty interesting radar image how it split in two almost right over me. Talk about parting of the "white sea" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 messenger...you should step away from your cpu for a bit and take deep breath. everything is going to be OK. the world, myself included, is not out to get you. you've made about 30 posts about this. and they all basically proved that it snowed...in some cases low end warning criteria(!) let it go. move on. hopefully this next storm won't be so bad out your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Scott might strap a pipe bomb to Phil's car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Scott might strap a pipe bomb to Phil's car. Well, Phil's the one with an armory full of propane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 messenger...you should step away from your cpu for a bit and take deep breath. everything is going to be OK. the world, myself included, is not out to get you. you've made about 30 posts about this. and they all basically proved that it snowed...in some cases low end warning criteria(!) let it go. move on. hopefully this next storm won't be so bad out your way. Phil that's what you don't get. The snow pictures have zero to do with you. I don't have to prove that for most of the area your forecast busted the bare grass and PNS prove that. Nor did we need my photos to know a dusting to 2" was wrong in that band and in a few other spots. It was a neat meso scale band and I had to make a planned trip. I've always wanted to do this during a storm and today was that opportunity. If you've got a critical comment to make or feel that someone is wrong, make it/say it during the event or before, not after the sun is out and the storm is over. If you're going to call someone out for a "bust" you should at least acknowledge your own. More than anything leave the personal shots for PM or face to face at a GTG (your comments about my carrying a ruler...you're on a weather board dude people like to chase storms and the weather...shouldn't be a shocker). It has no place here. We're close enough geographically, if you've got a problem I'm sure we can hash it out over a beer or cup of coffee. If you go to the next GTG I'll change plans and go so we can put this behind us/in perspective over a few drinks. Scott might strap a pipe bomb to Phil's car. LOL but there are some words I probably wouldn't use anywhere on the web and that's one of them. Black helicopters and MIB for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 Scott please strap one on and engage Phil' May not be a good idea at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2011 Share Posted January 9, 2011 May not be a good idea at this time If he's game he can ride on my roof racks to the GTG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 If he's game he can ride on my roof racks to the GTG. Are you coming now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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