MotoWeatherman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 OK....we shall is if this thread survives to kickoff. Game is still on. Up next is the 0z GFS....let's roll....:snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 @18 it's looking like the 18z...vort might be a tad stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 @18 it's looking like the 18z...vort might be a tad stronger. yep....but in the exact same spot so far...which is good because 18z run was lights out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 @21 it's holding serve of 18z...vort is about the same it might actually be a little weaker it's hard to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
philconnors Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 OK....we shall is if this thread survives to kickoff. Game is still on. Up next is the 0z GFS....let's roll....:snowman: How about the Euro and Canadian? Anybody have an update for snow lover in Birmingham. This looks like it could be a doozie. I am trying to hold back my excitement till we get to about 6am tomorrow. Am amazed with these QPF's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 @18 it's looking like the 18z...vort might be a tad stronger. one thing i'm noticing is that the 500mb shortwave heights are not stretched out to the NE as much from the vortmax... the 00z nam did this too... so that makes me a bit uneasy for folks in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 @18 is looks stronger @21 it's holding serve of 18z...vort is about the same it might actually be a little weaker it's hard to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 one thing i'm noticing is that the 500mb shortwave heights are not stretched out to the NE as much from the vortmax... the 00z nam did this too... so that makes me a bit uneasy for folks in NC. It could be it's just a hair slower, at 27 it seems to be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 @30 our low in TX is stronger and further north then the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 8, 2011 Author Share Posted January 8, 2011 How about the Euro and Canadian? Anybody have an update for snow lover in Birmingham. This looks like it could be a doozie. I am trying to hold back my excitement till we get to about 6am tomorrow. Am amazed with these QPF's. 0z NAM has BHM staying snow for most of the event while the 18z GFS changes the snow to sleet after midnight Sunday before ending. From that you just look at the QPF maps for each model to estimate snow amounts..etc. Either way it looks like a major winter storm for Birmingham. Once we get within 48 hours I usually focus on the NAM and GFS mainly because I have access to their detailed data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Question what do we want that energy in the NW of the US to do? Does it need to dive in faster? I know that's what folks in RDU need...or I thought anyways. Looks further north with the precip and the low is around the same strength at 36 as the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 36 Looking stronger, probably some flooding in Texas according to that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 33 just a tad slower, same strength Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 0z NAM has BHM staying snow for most of the event while the 18z GFS changes the snow to sleet after midnight Sunday before ending. From that you just look at the QPF maps for each model to estimate snow amounts..etc. Either way it looks like a major winter storm for Birmingham. Once we get within 48 hours I usually focus on the NAM and GFS mainly because I have access to their detailed data. birmingham looks to be sitting pretty for an awesome thumping. i dont suppose you have access to a version of the gfs that updates faster, lol. i want to see what happens a couple of frames later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Low is a little stronger at 39 then the 18z GFS a little more moisture is in N LA at that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Hmmm. On the 30 hour 500 map, is that a little bit of energy out ahead in central texas like Wow was pointing out on the 0z NAM? (Hope not). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 @42 not as much precip to the north...but it could be it's just because it's a little bit slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 its almost closed off near Dallas or east Texas at 42. The vort is circular. It looks a little stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 GFS generally seems to see the gulf low as being a bit stronger than NAM, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 @30 our low in TX is stronger and further north then the 18z run. It seems to always start out stronger and then it ends up weaker. It'll be the same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 at 48, the vort is stronger than the previous 60 hour, and further west, instead of the la/Miss. border its northern Louisiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Stronger at 42 than the 18GFS and looks to want to close off, as robert noted. GFS generally seems to see the gulf low as being a bit stronger than NAM, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Our Ocean Low is stronger and west of 18z position, fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 If the low moved through faster would that prevent it from dampening as much out before reaching the east coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 this looks like its going to be a good bit north of the NAM. Very strong 5h vort in western Miss. with better divergence over n. Alabama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Looks a hair slower at 48 If the low moved through faster would that prevent it from dampening as much out before reaching the east coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 This run looks like it's going to be a mix of the 18z GFS and 00z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 Guys: We have 8" of fresh powder up here in the Linville area and some areas have as much as 13 inches today over towards Mount Mitchell. Tomorrow is a perfect day for Cross Country Skiing in the NC Mountains with more snow accumulating on Saturday. Don't let these flaky models drive ya nuts and do yourself a favor and come up and ski tomorrow in fresh powder and get back to the model watching on Sunday afternoon. They will still be there waiting for ya Sunday. It's not worth putting yourself through all the torment! Please don't let one of the best weekends of winter outdoor sports pass you by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 At 54, it's looking like the moisture reaches further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2011 Share Posted January 8, 2011 @63 it looks good for CLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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