Ender Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 When was the last time we had a legit interior runner? I realize they aren't impossible or anything, but I don't remember a deep-winter cutter from last winter. They're not exactly common during weak to moderate Ninos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'm trying to decide if the negative vibe is due to sound analysis or from being spooked...no offense at this statement I'm just a bit fuzzy. It really seems like any positive thing is countered with it's really far out there but any negative trend is signed sealed and delivered...eh...we need the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I mean one that ran up to buckeye-land or up the Apps and rained hard on us. A storm that cuts up to Minnesota is a totally different beast, IMO. If it goes west I think it'll end up way, way west. Like collapse of the Metrodome west. That's mostly a guess though. Sort'a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The ninas I recall tend to oscillate between long stretches of warmth and brief but fairly intense cold outbreaks. The latter have tended to feature clippers that dive well south of us, and deepen too far OTS, and split flow "southern stream" systems that slide right off the coast somewhere between JAX and ILM. The rest of those nina winter's lows seem to track up along the west side of the Apps, the OV or the eastern plains states. This is just based on memory, though, not a careful study. Heights really seem to want to fall out west. Not a good sign. Especially since the cause of those eventual height falls is poorly sampled at this time (being even further back in the data poor PAC). Meanwhile our block, the Friday flurry fest, will be lifting unimpeded. While heights might stay "relatively low" in the east it's definitely a game of chicken. A high stakes one at that. no arguments here. it's really early.. not much would shock me. part of me really thinks we already missed our best op, maybe i need to erase that from my mind and hit the restart button. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 If it goes west I think it'll end up way, way west. Like collapse of the Metrodome west. That's mostly a guess though. Sort'a I've seen things trend west before but in my memory I can't remember one doing that from its current starting point...unless you take the ggem I guess. Oh well...back to the lovely and glorious super strong nina of 10-11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'm trying to decide if the negative vibe is due to sound analysis or from being spooked...no offense at this statement I'm just a bit fuzzy. It really seems like any positive thing is countered with it's really far out there but any negative trend is signed sealed and delivered...eh...we need the rain might be time to start a 2011 drought thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 no arguments here. it's really early.. not much would shock me. part of me really thinks we already missed our best op, maybe i need to erase that from my mind and hit the restart button. You're spooked and IMO it's tilting your opinion...doesn't mean you are wrong but it's making you type that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 The 00z nam looks like crap. We can't even get a frooking dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 might be time to start a 2011 drought thread Wouldn't be summer without one around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The 00z nam looks like crap. We can't even get a frooking dusting wrong thread here you go http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1224475/China-overdoes-cloud-seeding-end-drought--blankets-Beijing-snow.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 You're spooked and IMO it's tilting your opinion...doesn't mean you are wrong but it's making you type that way it's possible.. it was my first really painful snowfall experience living here. it may haunt me forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 The 00z nam looks like crap. We can't even get a frooking dusting Couple inches in Norfolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Update, 00z Nam already looking much flatter with energy moving into the southwest compared to 18z. Not looking good for my lakes cutter with +10C over DCA. Maybe it'll trend back at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 It's not going to snow this winter. Everytime we get closer to an event...all the good trending falls apart. One step forward and 5 steps back. This could haunt us all winter. I said back in October that this was already the 4th worst winter of all time for me and it hadn't even started yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_p60_072m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep....am_p60_072m.gif meltdown can't be far off.. it did snow a little, not a shutout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 meltdown can't be far off.. it did snow a little, not a shutout When did it snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 meltdown can't be far off.. it did snow a little, not a shutout If next week fizzles...oh boy I can only imagine what Ji will post....oh wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Half watching this one. Euro is supressed off the east coast and most of the GFS members cut up or west of the apps? GGEM is ice storm? Is that correct? Why would anyone get bent right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'm trying to decide if the negative vibe is due to sound analysis or from being spooked...no offense at this statement I'm just a bit fuzzy. It really seems like any positive thing is countered with it's really far out there but any negative trend is signed sealed and delivered...eh...we need the rain People are skeptical, and for good reason. La Nina's are notorious for DCA teases on the models. We have already been shown three really big storms and for more than one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 When did it snow? dec 16, dec 26 (sort of).. some other day i think. your post was a good one.. i sig'ed part of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 If next week fizzles...oh boy I can only imagine what Ji will won't be able to post....oh wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Half watching this one. Euro is supressed off the east coast and most of the GFS members cut up or west of the apps? GGEM is ice storm? Is that correct? Why would anyone get bent right now? I am waiting for the random run that gives you 30 inches of snow and me flurries. On the day of the storm, I'll be watching for reports that you have only 5 inches and have already turned to sleet. Seemed to work well last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 People are skeptical, and for good reason. La Nina's are notorious for DCA teases on the models. We have already been shown three really big storms and for more than one run. I get that....I've already gone through my stages for this winter Anticipation angst trepidation disappointment angry posting annoying posting acceptance troll posting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5, 2011 Author Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'll let this non event pass because we don't score on miller bs. But God help me if next week busts. I will go on a hustoric weenie rampage that will get me banned for a year plus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I get that....I've already gone through my stages for this winter Anticipation angst trepidation disappointment angry posting annoying posting acceptance troll posting And that was yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I get that....I've already gone through my stages for this winter Anticipation angst trepidation disappointment angry posting annoying posting acceptance troll posting ive mostly been stuck between angry posting, annoying posting and troll posting. acceptance comes in june. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'll let this non event pass because we don't score on miller bs. But God help me if next week busts. I will go on a hustoric weenie rampage that will get me banned for a year plus I think you need a winter retreat might I suggest.... http://www.retreatatsp.org/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I'll let this non event pass because we don't score on miller bs. But God help me if next week busts. I will go on a hustoric weenie rampage that will get me banned for a year plus Well if hustory tells us anything then you will probably be banned for a year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 banned for a year plus Eh, just the months of November to April would be fine with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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