Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

Jan 11-12 Model/Forecasting Discussion


Ji

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I'm trying to decide if the negative vibe is due to sound analysis or from being spooked...no offense at this statement I'm just a bit fuzzy. It really seems like any positive thing is countered with it's really far out there but any negative trend is signed sealed and delivered...eh...we need the rain

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The ninas I recall tend to oscillate between long stretches of warmth and brief but fairly intense cold outbreaks. The latter have tended to feature clippers that dive well south of us, and deepen too far OTS, and split flow "southern stream" systems that slide right off the coast somewhere between JAX and ILM. The rest of those nina winter's lows seem to track up along the west side of the Apps, the OV or the eastern plains states. This is just based on memory, though, not a careful study.

Heights really seem to want to fall out west. Not a good sign. Especially since the cause of those eventual height falls is poorly sampled at this time (being even further back in the data poor PAC). Meanwhile our block, the Friday flurry fest, will be lifting unimpeded. While heights might stay "relatively low" in the east it's definitely a game of chicken. A high stakes one at that.

no arguments here. it's really early.. not much would shock me. part of me really thinks we already missed our best op, maybe i need to erase that from my mind and hit the restart button.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If it goes west I think it'll end up way, way west. Like collapse of the Metrodome west. That's mostly a guess though. Sort'a

I've seen things trend west before but in my memory I can't remember one doing that from its current starting point...unless you take the ggem I guess. Oh well...back to the lovely and glorious super strong nina of 10-11

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm trying to decide if the negative vibe is due to sound analysis or from being spooked...no offense at this statement I'm just a bit fuzzy. It really seems like any positive thing is countered with it's really far out there but any negative trend is signed sealed and delivered...eh...we need the rain

might be time to start a 2011 drought thread

Link to comment
Share on other sites

no arguments here. it's really early.. not much would shock me. part of me really thinks we already missed our best op, maybe i need to erase that from my mind and hit the restart button.

You're spooked and IMO it's tilting your opinion...doesn't mean you are wrong but it's making you type that way

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You're spooked and IMO it's tilting your opinion...doesn't mean you are wrong but it's making you type that way

it's possible.. it was my first really painful snowfall experience living here. it may haunt me forever.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's not going to snow this winter. Everytime we get closer to an event...all the good trending falls apart. One step forward and 5 steps back. This could haunt us all winter. I said back in October that this was already the 4th worst winter of all time for me and it hadn't even started yet

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm trying to decide if the negative vibe is due to sound analysis or from being spooked...no offense at this statement I'm just a bit fuzzy. It really seems like any positive thing is countered with it's really far out there but any negative trend is signed sealed and delivered...eh...we need the rain

People are skeptical, and for good reason. La Nina's are notorious for DCA teases on the models. We have already been shown three really big storms and for more than one run.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Half watching this one. Euro is supressed off the east coast and most of the GFS members cut up or west of the apps? GGEM is ice storm? Is that correct? Why would anyone get bent right now?

I am waiting for the random run that gives you 30 inches of snow and me flurries. On the day of the storm, I'll be watching for reports that you have only 5 inches and have already turned to sleet. Seemed to work well last winter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

People are skeptical, and for good reason. La Nina's are notorious for DCA teases on the models. We have already been shown three really big storms and for more than one run.

I get that....I've already gone through my stages for this winter

Anticipation

angst

trepidation

disappointment

angry posting

annoying posting

acceptance

troll posting

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I get that....I've already gone through my stages for this winter

Anticipation

angst

trepidation

disappointment

angry posting

annoying posting

acceptance

troll posting

ive mostly been stuck between angry posting, annoying posting and troll posting. acceptance comes in june.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...