Wx4cast Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 0Z Euro cuts the Feb. 1 low way west....not looking good.... Well considering how the EC lead many astray with today's coastal I wouldn't be too concerned over the OP...ECEN is east of OP.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolymammoth Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Well considering how the EC lead many astray with today's coastal I wouldn't be too concerned over the OP...ECEN is east of OP.... Between the Lakes Cutters in 2008/09 and the climo oh-so-wrong I-95 coastals this year and last.....(and today!) BGM is in the middle of a very sad pattern. I hate to whine....but..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Between the Lakes Cutters in 2008/09 and the climo oh-so-wrong I-95 coastals this year and last.....(and today!) BGM is in the middle of a very sad pattern. I hate to whine....but..... feb is usually a good (betetr month) same for march, too.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 If anything, the Euro shifted west a bit and brings mild air into most of NYS. The GFS for the same timeframe (Day 6) has a huge polar high over the northern plains with cold and dry conditions in upstate NY. Here's my forecast for next Tuesday, going with a blend of the GFS and Euro: "Mostly sunny with sleet developing in the morning, changing to rain by afternoon. The rain could not be heavy at times. Mild, with cold temperatures between 15 and 48. Calm winds, gusting to 50 mph. Wind chill values as low as 40. Total rain accumulation of 0 to 2 inches." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 i wouldnt believe anytihng the euro is selling these days its been overphasing at this range all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The GFS for the same timeframe (Day 6) has a huge polar high over the northern plains with cold and dry conditions in upstate NY. I noticed this on today's 0z runs and it continues on today's 12z run. Not sure which I would prefer at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I noticed this on today's 0z runs and it continues on today's 12z run. Not sure which I would prefer at this point. Looks like the 12Z UK and Canadian are showing a low moving much closer to the coast while the GFS has a low, but supresses it bigtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 12z CMC still has a storm in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe, however models are all over the place with a track and haven't even settled on the idea of a storm in the first place, so take it for what it is. Lest we forget the CMC led us down the Primrose Path for this on-going non-event only to abandon us later on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 O... now we have a threat. The DGEX + CMC = Unstoppable tag team Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 The jma didn't look half bad either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 The jma didn't look half bad either Ottawa gets screwed again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I had to laugh while watching the local Montreal CTV weather forecast tonight. She said that the next cold blast won't be as cold as the last one. People might be in for a shock next week as the Euro seems to hint that the coldest weather is yet to come. I sometimes think that some weather agencies do a disservice to the public by not making them fully aware of what might be coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 0z ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 0z ggem Looks as though a secondary is about to pop over the interior southeast based on the bagginess in the isobars, could be an interesting solution post 144. Also noting this 0z run is about 24-36 hours slower compared to the 12z run with the timing for Upstate NY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 color ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 And there it is. A solid solution for I-90 south, especially along I-81 and east. 0z GFS pretty much still has nothing in this time range, and the ECM has been well west every run so far, maybe that changes with tonight's 0z run. The threat is still low at this time... Primary LP to Eastern KY, and a secondary up the coastline... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Leave it to the 0z NOGAPS for the best solution of all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 is that -40C? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Look familiar?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 The way things have been going it could well be..... But one positive I saw on the 12Z GFS was it's 5H ridge position centered right over the west coast. Look familiar?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 6z DGEX will 2 medium hits for I-90 South for Tuesday Morning and Wednesday Night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 cmc is a glc lol Looks like alot of rain...This 1 is gonna be fun to track.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 UK goes over lake erie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 cmc is a glc lol Looks like alot of rain...This 1 is gonna be fun to track.. Just had a look on E-wall. There's a 1036mb HP over Quebec that locks in the cold air and initially everyone would start as a period of snow before beginning to mix and eventually change to rain / drizzle (save perhaps the high terrain around the Dacks). Secondary LP forms over the Champlain Valley and changes everyone back to a period of snow before precip shuts off. All in all, probably an advisory-level snowfall for most, and not a terrible solution for us should this end up cutting west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 With that kind high in that position, the Hudson Valley would probably remain below freezing. We can do quite well with those setups.......front end thump of 4-8" and then ice to seal it in. Just no more coastal plain hits Just had a look on E-wall. There's a 1036mb HP over Quebec that locks in the cold air and initially everyone would start as a period of snow before beginning to mix and eventually change to rain / drizzle (save perhaps the high terrain around the Dacks). Secondary LP forms over the Champlain Valley and changes everyone back to a period of snow before precip shuts off. All in all, probably an advisory-level snowfall for most, and not a terrible solution for us should this end up cutting west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Euro is OTS I'm going with the persistance forecast.....I95 special. Why forecast against it. Forecasting us to be in the bullseye would be like picking the Baltimore Orioles to win the world series. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 12z ECM remains similar to the 0z ECM / 0z-12z GFS and too far south / east for impact... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 yup the ecm gives the MA another snowstorm..Hopefully the models converge in the middle lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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