Remnants of Hurricane Isaias

[TSSN+]

Going to be an interesting Sunday evening for someone. 
 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

What does total rainfall look like.on the 12z euro? 

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

What does total rainfall look like.on the 12z euro? 

 

[LeesburgWx]

Sunday’s going to be wet. Pretty much 1-2 inches region wide

[Eskimo Joe]

21 minutes ago, yoda said:

Thanks a nice bit of rain. Nothing too crazy. 

[yoda]

Afternoon AFD from LWX 

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
245 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Added a mention of possible gale conditions over the lower
Chesapeake Bay on Sunday as a result of passing remnants of
Hurricane Isaias.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Remnants of Hurricane Isaias to bring rain, breezy
  conditions Sunday into Sunday night.

- 2) No hazardous weather expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Remnants of Hurricane Isaias to bring rain,
breezy conditions Sunday into Sunday night.

The pattern remains quiet through the first half of the weekend
as surface high pressure strengthens over the northeastern U.S.
However, this lengthy period of tranquil weather will come to an
end as this ridge retreats northward ahead of Isaias. Until
then, a thick area of high cirrus should continue to track
poleward. Daily highs will be in the low/mid 70s, with 60s
across mountain locations.

The main weather impact to the region over the next week is going to
be from the remnants of what is now Hurricane Isaias (Cat 3
strength). Model guidance is in generally good agreement that
Hurricane Isaias` surface low weakens and broadens as the system
moves into the TN Valley Saturday night into Sunday. The mid-
level circulation amplifies and becomes a strong cutoff low over
KY/TN that moves slowly east across the Mid- Atlantic Sunday
into Monday. Periods of rain are likely across the area at times
Saturday evening through Sunday night. Rainfall amounts of 1-2
inches are expected across the area. Higher rain totals are
certainly possible, but will depend on a few other smaller scale
features.

Tropical moisture surges north into our area Saturday night into
Sunday, with the highest PWAT values at or above 2" (most likely
east of the Blue Ridge). While the main cutoff low associated with
the remnants of Isaias remain west of the Appalachians on Saturday,
expect light rain to move in from south to north in the evening.
Forcing for ascent increases Saturday night, and especially Sunday
morning into Sunday afternoon as mid-level heights fall with the
approach of the cutoff low. There is going to be enhanced low-level
convergence somewhere over the region as the surface high to the
east and cutoff low to the west interact. Easterly flow into the
Blue Ridge could also produce enhanced rain amounts due to
orographic effects. Additionally, an inverted trough or wave of low
pressure tries to develop in lee of the Appalachians Sunday as it
crosses Virginia to the Delmarva.

Uncertainty remains regarding the exact evolution and timing of
these features, which will ultimately determine where / if any
locally heavy rain occurs. Continue to monitor the forecast over the
next couple of days. No Flood Watches are planned at this time as we
are still over 48 hours from the main slug of rain.
Additionally, there is a non-zero risk of isolated tornadoes on
Sunday. These post-tropical environments can be tricky as low-
level spin ups do occur. For now, the Storm Prediction Center
has maintained a Day 3 Marginal Risk area.

It is going to be noticeably breezy, especially in the mountains
where winds begin to pick up Saturday evening. The strongest winds
are most likely on Sunday. The current forecast for peak wind gusts
is 30-40 mph in the Alleghenies and 20-30 mph elsewhere.

Conditions dry out Monday morning into Monday afternoon as the
remnants of Isaias push offshore. Looking at mostly mild
temperatures for most of next week. A series of cold fronts cross
the region during the middle to late part of next week as the
synoptic pattern becomes more active. Aside from mountain rain
showers, most of the area looks to remain dry. The strongest cold
front arrives late next week, possibly bringing rain and colder air
behind it.

[Weather Will]

I'm sure everyone will be relieved that the WB 18Z 3K NAM is now onboard and not quite done at the end of run.

[stormy]

The satellite imagery in motion sends a message.  Isaias is coming our way. 

Many details remain but the general movement looks good.

[Ephesians2]

53 minutes ago, stormy said:

The satellite imagery in motion sends a message.  Isaias is coming our way. 

Many details remain but the general movement looks good.

About 12 inches below normal precip YTD and still in D2 down here. 

Hopefully this knocks about 2 inches or so off the deficit. It is awfully dry in a lot of places. 

[Jebman]

Congrats on more rain! Dale City tallies shall challenge then surpass our meager amounts, 40.7 for the year.

Enjoy this autumn, winter and well on into late spring in 2027. Mid Atlantic is right in the Plume! So is Destin, FL, as they are most assuredly finding out right about now. Some Southeastern communities will eclipse 20 inches easy, especially with training tropical thunderstorms.

[Jebman]

Got some watches in Virginia already

 

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
143 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ015>017-032-101000-
/O.NEW.KRNK.FA.A.0009.261010T1500Z-261012T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-
Patrick-
Including the cities of Whitetop, Dobson, Galax, Troutdale, Stuart,
West Jefferson, Boone, Floyd, Wilkesboro, Sparta, Independence, and
Volney
143 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of North Carolina, including the following areas,
  Alleghany NC, Ashe, Surry, Watauga and Wilkes and southwest
  Virginia, including the following areas, Carroll, Floyd, Grayson
  and Patrick.

* WHEN...From Saturday morning through Sunday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
  Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Low-water crossings
  may be flooded. Storm drains and ditches may become clogged with
  debris. Extensive street flooding and flooding of creeks and rivers
  are possible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Upslope rainfall from a rather strong southeasterly Low level jet
    from the remnants of Isaias will bring increased precipitation
    along the crest of the southern Blue Ridge from Floyd county
    extending southwestward towards Watauga county. Widespread
    rainfall totals of 2-4 inches with locally higher totals in the
    5-6 range will be possible, especially for areas like Meadows of
    Dan, Boone, and Blowing Rock. These higher totals may lead to
    isolated instances of landslides along slopes that have been
    modified by humans like embankments or cut slopes. These areas
    may also see increased rises on local streamflows that may lead
    to flooding across low-water crossings.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

EB

[MN Transplant]

3 hours ago, high risk said:

My initial reaction was that tornado potential would be confined to southeast VA and the Eastern Shore, because widespread rain over the DC metro area would limit instability.   Looking at CAMs, however, suggests that rain will likely end by early or mid afternoon for areas south and southeast of the warm front, and some decently high theta-e air will be available.    With the intense shear forecasted, it won't take much instability to make things very interesting.   The question, though, the track of the surface low.  My money is still on a track that keeps the warm sector south and east of DC, but there are solutions that track the low further to the northwest which would put our area into the game later Sunday.

A big factor is that TC tornadoes are strongly diurnal.  The CAMs all have the same idea with a broken (super?)cellular line, but it doesn't really rotate up here until after sundown.  If I were chasing, I think I'd head to Lynchburg and plan to follow the cells northeast.

[CAPE]

Latest blend- looks like an inch or so across the region. Probably a nice stratiform rain event. Beneficial.