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October 2026


MJO812
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4 hours ago, guinness77 said:

Why the hell can it never be like this on a damn Sunday?? 

Pretty terrible that we've strung together three weekends in a row with a crappy Sunday.  Especially during peak fall outdoor activity season.  At least the streak will be over this weekend with Friday being the unsettled day instead.  

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Tomorrow through Wednesday will be warmer than normal days. Highs should reach the upper 60s and lower 70s. Temperatures could peak in the middle to perhaps upper 70s on Wednesday ahead of a cold front. Newark could make a run at 80°.

Cooler weather will then arrive for Thursday and Friday. There is increasing potential that a piece of an air mass that set a record low temperatures in parts of Canada during the weekend could move into the region for next weekend. The arrival of this air mass could trigger a few showers on Friday or Friday night. As a result, the weekend could see the coldest temperatures so far this season.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.3°C for the week centered around October 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +3.03°C. ENSO Region 3.4 has set a new all-time record. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. 

The SOI was -17.60 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.903 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.3° (0.4° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.4° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

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