Tropical Storm Edouard

[cptcatz]

No way this is becoming a hurricane. Still so weak and not enough time until landfall.

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I was a bit shocked when I saw that this morning and wording of "significant strengthening expected" prior to landfall. Certainly we've seen this develop a nice looking circulation but there's been little evidence of any potential for significant strengthening. Even latest recon passes aren't finding much. Satellite presentation and evolution doesn't really scream that either. You never know with these Gulf systems though...who knows, we probably get hurricane winds that extend 3 miles from the center  

That's true, we could get glorified storm cell makes landfall with hurricane Force gusts, aka an ordinary summer afternoon in Texas 

[NorthHillsWx]

4 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

That's true, we could get glorified storm cell makes landfall with hurricane Force gusts, aka an ordinary summer afternoon in Texas 

LMAO it’s true, this thing would likely be significantly less impactful than some of the Ohio valley derechos we’ve seen this summer even if it became a hurricane 

[vortex95]

43 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Can’t say I’ve ever seen a hurricane watch for a 35 kt system roughly 50 miles from landfall 

Exactly!  And it is why my posts have been they way they have been since last night.  Not being a negative Nancy, just see thing for what they are. The signs of RI are just not there, and those signs are not subtle (data rich area Edouard is in, so higher confidence what exactly is going on w/ the storm over time).  And you see what recon just found, despite sat looking better, and radar looking *much* better.  If you just showed me a radar of Edouard now in a vacuum, I would say, "that's probably a strong TS or min HU w/ that kind of banding and a partial eyewall!"

And yet NHC just stays the course on the 12z update stating RI is imminent.  Sometimes they prioritize consistent messaging over what is actually happening evolving in real time, just not to confuse the public.  I can get that, but it really not being 100% truthful IMHO, and we all see the same data, so there are going to be some that call NHC out unprofessionally on social media for clicks and likes, among other things.  So that's the flip side of not changing messaging as the event evolves -- it invokes criticism that in this case is legit.  Even when it is not legit, that still presents challenges on a PR and overall perception level.

[Windspeed]

The southern semicircle of the circulation continues to improve. However, the NE quadrant has simultaneously deteriorated on radar. I'm doubting we're going to see any significant intensification prior to landfall at this point, though there is still time for some further pressure fall and marginal increase in winds. A moderate 50-55 kt TS still seems quite possible, but a borderline hurricane would be surprising at this point. We would need to see nascent eyewall or core band developing, and that doesn't seem to be occurring. We've got, what, six hours remaining, give or take an hour?

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Exactly!  And it is why my posts have been they way they have been since last night.  Not being a negative Nancy, just see thing for what they are. The signs of RI are just not there, and those signs are not subtle (data rich area Edouard is in, so higher confidence what exactly is going on w/ the storm over time).  And you see what recon just found, despite sat looking better, and radar looking *much* better.  If you just showed me a radar of Edouard now in a vacuum, I would say, "that's probably a strong TS or min HU w/ that kind of banding and a partial eyewall!"

And yet NHC just stays the course on the 12z update stating RI is imminent.  Sometimes they prioritize consistent messaging over what is actually happening evolving in real time, just not to confuse the public.  I can get that, but it really not being 100% truthful IMHO, and we all see the same data, so there are going to be some that call NHC out unprofessionally on social media for clicks and likes, among other things.  So that's the flip side of not changing messaging as the event evolves -- it invokes criticism that in this case is legit.  Even when it is not legit, that still presents challenges on a PR and overall perception level.

For some odd reason it seems many are trying to will this thing into strengthening. I made a post about this in the SNE form yesterday but on Twitter (since Sunday really) there's been nothing but posts from many people trying to find any reason to justify its strengthening and taking off. I mean sure this has become better organized better structurally over the past few days but is a 40 mph storm lol. Its been nothing but posts about satellite presentation, convection and how "the look means its strengthening". 

Weird

[vortex95]

21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I was a bit shocked when I saw that this morning and wording of "significant strengthening expected" prior to landfall. Certainly we've seen this develop a nice looking circulation but there's been little evidence of any potential for significant strengthening. Even latest recon passes aren't finding much. Satellite presentation and evolution doesn't really scream that either. You never know with these Gulf systems though...who knows, we probably get hurricane winds that extend 3 miles from the center  

I think the it is a case of "modelization"as I like to call it. Too much reliance on models. Yes, modelling has come a long way, and the HAFS has shown excellent skill since it was operational 2 years ago, but you can't assume it always will do a good job, and you have to actually look at hard observation data first and foremost, and when that contradicts a model, the path is clear you need to adjust your fcst and messaging.

I have notice close to a landfall, NHC rarely backs off on wording they have prior b/c they do not want the public to let their guard down.  But this promotes the "cry wolf" problem b/c the threat is overstated and not adjusted for reality, 

Our in situ and remote observations have come so far and better than ever, yet we still seem to cling to "better safe than sorry" or "err on the side of caution."  Overdoing it has real costs, like economic for business and commerce and the cost or evacuations and preparations in general.  So it is in our best interest to try to fine tune our forecasts more and take advantage of all our advances, and I get the impression we are not doing that fully, at least not w/ the messaging when it comes to certain TC situations.

[NorthHillsWx]

Think this one had some sticker shock to Wx Twitter being it has had a very impressive radar appearance for a weak system but clearly it is still not a mature circulation and is in the formative stages. Given 1 more day this would 100% become a hurricane and possibly more, but the jump from TD to hurricane organization wise is huge. IR paints the real picture here where there is no sustained core. It’s close but out of time. 50kts remains my call. Personally I am shocked NHC went with a hurricane watch 

[BooneWX]

Quite the jog south by the core in recent radar frames. It looks like the stronger connection to the south may have given it a tug. It’s probably a wash at this point, but that may have bought it an extra hour or two.

[vortex95]

10 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

The southern semicircle of the circulation continues to improve. However, the NE quadrant has simultaneously deteriorated on radar. I'm doubting we're going to see any significant intensification prior to landfall at this point, though there is still time for some further pressure fall and marginal increase in winds. A moderate 50-55 kt TS still seems quite possible, but a borderline hurricane would be surprising at this point. We would need to see nascent eyewall or core band developing, and that doesn't seem to be occurring. We've got, what, six hours remaining, give or take an hour?

Look at the latest radar, it seems the small inner "eyewall" has almost dissipated like in an ERC and you have a larger center taken over.  But even that larger center is not closed off w/ precip and looks like a fairly strong dry slot is wrapping in.  Look like it is coming in from the SE, and we had the increase in shear apparent from the ESE earlier this morning, so that may be pushing the dry air into the core.

[weatherwiz]

Does look like though some stronger velocities being sampled by LCH

[NorthHillsWx]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Does look like though some stronger velocities being sampled by LCH

They've increased 20 kts in last 20 minutes in SW part of circulation. This could be the much-awaited strengthening showing up. Definitely something to watch. Some 50-55 kt barbs showing up now. Once again I think H is too much to ask for but this likely does strengthen into LF as a mod-strong TS

[Windspeed]

Look at the latest radar, it seems the small inner "eyewall" has almost dissipated like in an ERC and you have a larger center taken over.  But even that larger center is not closed off w/ precip and looks like a fairly strong dry slot is wrapping in.  Look like it is coming in from the SE, and we had the increase in shear apparent from the ESE earlier this morning, so that may be pushing the dry air into the core.

You know, interestingly, in the past thirty or so minutes since posting that, the old inner circulation or nascent core is getting absorbed by a strong band that is intensifying. That is what you want to see if you want strengthening, but it needs to wrap around to become a proto-eyewall feature. At any rate, such a strong band should be resulting in a significant expansion of convection / cold cloud burst on satellite soon.

[vortex95]

12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

For some odd reason it seems many are trying to will this thing into strengthening. I made a post about this in the SNE form yesterday but on Twitter (since Sunday really) there's been nothing but posts from many people trying to find any reason to justify its strengthening and taking off. I mean sure this has become better organized better structurally over the past few days but is a 40 mph storm lol. Its been nothing but posts about satellite presentation, convection and how "the look means its strengthening". 

Weird

The odd reason is two things, hype for clicks/like, and as I have said before, esp. when it comes to satellite and cold clouds tops, some just "see at the trees w/o seeing the forest."  The question you have to ask, is that developing deep convection banded or showing twist, esp near the center?  If not, that means you have to temper your expectations at first.  Many times a big blow up of convection collapses almost as fast, as one example, and irregular blobs of convection for a TC are not conducive to RI.  One large coherent blob is ok, esp. if it persists, b/c that often is a sign of a developing CDO.

[hawkeye_wx]

We are finally seeing a blowup of very deep convection near the center over the last 30 minutes.

[NorthHillsWx]

Recon finally starting to see winds come up, correlating with a flare up over center and increased radar velocities. The strengthening has begun

[BooneWX]

Lightning in the core, convection rotating upshear. 

[vortex95]

9 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

You know, interestingly, in the past thirty or so minutes since posting that, the old inner circulation or nascent core is getting absorbed by a strong band that is intensifying. That is what you want to see if you want strengthening, but it needs to wrap around to become a proto-eyewall feature. At any rate, such a strong band should be resulting in a significant expansion of convection / cold cloud burst on satellite soon.

Yes, like an ERC when it finishes and the sig intensification can occur again,  Just the dry slot gap N and E makes this process less likely here.

[Windspeed]

Wow, look at that strong mesovortex wrap up at the tail end of the intensifying core band. Fascinating stuff watching this unfold on radar.

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Lightning in the core, convection rotating upshear. 

Yep, for the first time that looks like a real nascent eyewall. It is not just low topped convection. If that wraps up this will obviously strengthen quicker. It is very obvious now though that the system is in a strengthening phase. 

[vortex95]

12 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Wow, look at that strong mesovortex wrap up at the tail end of the intensifying core band. Fascinating stuff watching this unfold on radar.

Yes, look at different radar and elevations, there is more than one circulation present.

[NorthHillsWx]

Some 60 kt velocities now showing up from LCH, recon finally found 50+ kt FL winds. Probably a 45 kt storm now, still strengthening

[NorthHillsWx]

This next pass could see some very significant intensification if these rapid increases in radar velocities are sustained and sampled

[hawkeye_wx]

Recon just lifted to flight-home altitude, so it appears there won't be another pass.

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Recon just lifted to flight-home altitude, so it appears there won't be another pass.

Yep, was looking forward to one more. Radar has RAPIDLY improved on north side too. Me thinks RI might be occurring. Crazy cool processes to watch on radar. For the talk earlier of no defined core, IR and radar both show it quickly blossoming. Lightning in southern quad is a definitive sign of strengthening too. Lets see how quickly it ramps up

[NorthHillsWx]

Starting to see some barbs approaching hurricane force. Obviously these are at height but this is probably a 50-55 kt system based on radar data alone

[Windspeed]

There is still a weaker component to the northern semicircle of the overall vortex, but compared to even three hours ago, this is a very significant improvement in core presentation.

[NorthHillsWx]

Improvement on IR imagery is remarkable over just the last 2 hours

[NorthHillsWx]

Might be starting to see some of that frictional convergence at play now with the tightening core

[Boston Bulldog]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

Might be starting to see some of that frictional convergence at play now with the tightening core

Took the words right out of my mouth. The quick wrapping of the core has me thinking HU intensity is not off the table yet.