E PA/NJ/DE Autumn 2026 Obs/Discussion

[JTA66]

Only 0.20” so far, but this was never supposed to be a big rain maker back this way. I’ve set the bar at 1” for mby.

We now have more night than day!

57F/DP 54F

[RedSky]

44 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Phillies need a rain out tonight desperately....Luzardo and Wheeler both unavailable tonight but available tomorrow. Cmon rain...never needed you so badly!! 

Sad when your only hope is needing these two guys to pitch shutouts

[ChescoWx]

6 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Thanks Paul

 

This is a long duration event and the flooding down along coastal sections is going to be quite significant from the back bays especially rolling through the coastal communities.  

 

So far here in Media highest wind gust 42 mph and total rain thus far is 0.15" but steady heavier rain is rotating SW down the I-95 corridor so I suspect wind and rain increases over the next hour to two then roll through the rest of the day and evening calming down a bit after midnight tonight.  We have a few larger branches, leaves, saw 1 tree down and scattered power outages here around 8 am this morning along Baltimore Pike in Media maybe fixed by now.

I have had people asking me if this is January 1-2 feet of snow?  I am not sure about that because of the very warm Atlantic and proximity of storm even coming on shore this screams very brief snow to wind swept rain in December to February winter months.

 

Do we know if this is a warm core storm with any tropical characteristics or possibly subtropical?

Thanks for your detailed and data rich posts. 

 

Kevin

 

Here is 40th and Central in Sea Isle currently significant flooding on gong high tide looks like 2-4 feet of water there in the street.  Not sure what it looks like along Landis Avenue in the 50's to 80's streets. 

 

Hey Kevin - thanks! It has some subtropical characteristics....but it's more of a hybrid mid latitude cyclone....the storm Thursday-Friday was cold core for sure.

[Hurricane Agnes]

I actually had my high at midnight of 67 and low of 55 just before noon.  Picked up 0.49" from the intermittent rain and it's currently a misty 59 with dp 56

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

I actually had my high at midnight of 67 and low of 55 just before noon.  Picked up 0.49" from the intermittent rain and it's currently a misty 59 with dp 56

 

1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

I actually had my high at midnight of 67 and low of 55 just before noon.  Picked up 0.49" from the intermittent rain and it's currently a misty 59 with dp 56

Me too here in Media 67f high at midnight?  What in the world happened because I went to bed at 11:30 and it was 56???

[Birds~69]

57F/Rain, breezy at 11pm...

[Albedoman]

METEOROLOGIST’S LONG-RANGE WATCH — IS OUR FIRST REAL SHOT OF FALL COLD SHOWING UP?

For those of us in the Lehigh Valley who have been waiting for some genuine crisp fall weather, the extended-range guidance is finally starting to get interesting.

The GFS model is beginning to show a potentially much cooler pattern developing around the October 9–11 time frame, with colder air pushing into Pennsylvania and the Northeast. At this distance, I am NOT calling for a freeze yet, and certainly no Frost Advisory or Freeze Warning can be issued this far in advance. But the overall pattern is worth watching.

The important signal isn't an exact temperature on one particular GFS run. What meteorologists look for this far out is whether the larger atmospheric pattern begins favoring Canadian air moving southeast, lower dew points, clearing skies and high pressure settling over the region. If those ingredients eventually come together, overnight temperatures can drop very quickly across eastern Pennsylvania.

And remember, the Lehigh Valley has some significant microclimates. Temperatures at the airport don't always tell the whole story. Rural valleys, open farmland and sheltered locations can become several degrees colder on a clear, calm October night. Those are the places that could see frost first.

So for now, let's call October 9–11 a period to watch for the possibility of our first legitimate frost conditions and perhaps our first real taste of late-fall nighttime temperatures. We will need several more model runs — and especially better agreement among the ensembles — before putting much confidence in an actual freeze.

But after what seems like an endless stretch of warm and humid weather, I'll take the signal. I'm ready for those clear 50-degree evenings dropping into the 40s after sunset, the smell of leaves in the air, a fire going in the burn ring, and a glass of wine in hand. Now THAT is fall weather.

I'll be watching the GFS and ensemble trends closely over the next week to see whether this colder October 9–11 signal strengthens, disappears, or shifts in timing. Stay tuned — fall may finally be getting ready to make its move in the Lehigh Valley.

[Hurricane Agnes]

Had been under the heavier bands much of the early morning, not gully washer level but about 1/3rd- 1/2"/hr rates.  Rain has tapered down to light as the storm crawls north and pushed west right into Jersey (pushing the heavier bands inland).

Currently 58 with dp 58 and 1.60" in the bucket (2.25" 2-day total ).

[Birds~69]

57F/DP 56F/light rain

You can really see the spin with a radar loop. Just hanging around doing its thing...

[ChescoWx]

Storm totals so far across the Chesco area

[ChescoWx]

The Nor’easter will continue to impact us through today with some showers continuing into tomorrow morning. We dry out on Tuesday and start a nice but brief warming trend. We should see temperatures rise into the upper 70's with some valley location possibly touching 80 degrees by Thursday. We then turn much chillier again by next weekend.

[Hurricane Agnes]

23 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

57F/DP 56F/light rain

You can really see the spin with a radar loop. Just hanging around doing its thing...

[BBasile]

Up to 2.29" on the storm.  This makes September the third straight month with 6"+ of rainfall.  Sitting at 6.6" currently.  Pressure is at 997.9 MB and falling slowly.  Winds still gusting over 20 mph.  

[The Iceman]

2.1” on the storm 

7.2” on the month 

[RedSky]

1.00" and a bunch of blustery nonsense lol

run of the mill fall noreaster imby

 

[JTA66]

More than 1.10” so far as light/moderate rain continues, 62F/DP 61F

What a great weekend to veg on the couch and OD on football!

[RedSky]

Can't believe i wanted this storm boo

 

[Birds~69]

47 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Can't believe i wanted this storm boo

 

It's the gift that keeps on giving...enjoy.

61F/Light rain, sideways breezy mist. Nice day to take the kids to the park and fly a kite/feed the wildlife. It's something they will remember and cherish years from now…

 

 

[Hurricane Agnes]

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Can't believe i wanted this storm boo

 

It's moved inland and is spinning over south Jersey. 

Am now up to 1.89" for the day (2.54" 2-day, 8.26" for the month). Temp is 62 with dp 61.

[JTA66]

Pouring with a wall of water incoming from the Atlantic.