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Augdewst 2026: Summer's Last Stand


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25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nam and Euro look nothing like that . Just very light stuff 

The 18z HRRR up'ed the ante big time.  The two versions of the RRFS are have the same idea w/ one max swrn CT (what else is new) and another near former stomping ground of @CoastalWx (GHG).

NAM/HRRR/RRFS show a weak sfc/925 low developing near the S coast and takes its time moving E, so we get comma head backlash in ern MA.  There is a stronger upstream 500 trof moving into the Great Lakes by early Sat, and that would tend to move things along.  However, the system impacting SNE has little in the way of reflection at 500.  It's all low-level, so standard trof "kicker" rules may not apply here.

Weymouth 6" special like last year????
 

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3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Really starting to think alot of these GFS "canes" are a mere factor of a heavy climatological skew so the GFS just wants to pump out hurricanes. 

Where has you been?  :D  Long-known GFS gets TC spin-up happy after a week.  Has been that way for over 10 years.
 

If I had a dime for every time the GFS LR hit New England w/ a hurricane in the last 20 years?

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