Significant Severe Weather Event Possible for NNE on July 14 into July 15, 2026

[weatherwiz]

If I remember correctly too, some of the research on wildfires and influences on severe weather events is also based on the source of the wildfires (i.e. what is burning). Different burn sources are going to release different particulates into the air. And I think there is a big difference between what is burnt/released from Canadian fires versus what is burned and released within the western U.S. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

51 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

They made it all the way to southern NH and then disappeared 

I woke up to wet ground, so creeped into N fringe of MA.

[Hoth]

26 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

If I remember correctly too, some of the research on wildfires and influences on severe weather events is also based on the source of the wildfires (i.e. what is burning). Different burn sources are going to release different particulates into the air. And I think there is a big difference between what is burnt/released from Canadian fires versus what is burned and released within the western U.S. 

wasn’t there a high risk in the Plains some years back that busted badly and was attributed to wildfire smoke? 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

wasn’t there a high risk in the Plains some years back that busted badly and was attributed to wildfire smoke? 

I do recall something

[Torch Tiger]

massive bust.  so it goes

[tamarack]

12 hours ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

Family cabin on Fying Pond

My ice fishing spot, near the forested island about 1/4 mile from the Rt 41 boat launch.

Three whiffs and we struck out yesterday.  (Or got smoked out)   Had a sprinkle at 10 AM but the opportunities at 6 and 10 PM offered nothing except some grumbles to scare our dog.  All 3 passed to our west.

[CT Valley Snowman]

52 minutes ago, tamarack said:

My ice fishing spot, near the forested island about 1/4 mile from the Rt 41 boat launch.

Three whiffs and we struck out yesterday.  (Or got smoked out)   Had a sprinkle at 10 AM but the opportunities at 6 and 10 PM offered nothing except some grumbles to scare our dog.  All 3 passed to our west.

Took 134 to the New Sharon Dunkin Donuts a few times this week.  Hard to beat the views as far as a quick car ride is concerned.  Taking the kids to hike Bald Mountain Preserve in Camden tomorrow morning.  Usually it's Bald Mountain or Mt Blue in Weld, but I'm out of hiking shape and we are looking to try something a bit different outside of the  Kennebec Highlands trails near us.  

  

[Winter Wizard]

I think it's pretty clear that the wildfire smoke was the main culprit for thunderstorm activity not occurring over Maine as it suppressed instability to an extent and created and maintained a mid-level cap. Doesn't seem like modeling picked up on that at all. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the lack of storms in Maine also meant that the environment S and W was untapped and contributed to overperformance farther south in NY, VT, and NH. The forcing was clearly there and this was close to being a much more destructive event. I think we got pretty lucky all things considered but numerous severe reports in this region doesn't constitute a total "bust" IMO.
 

[tamarack]

45 minutes ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

Took 134 to the New Sharon Dunkin Donuts a few times this week.  Hard to beat the views as far as a quick car ride is concerned.  Taking the kids to hike Bald Mountain Preserve in Camden tomorrow morning.  Usually it's Bald Mountain or Mt Blue in Weld, but I'm out of hiking shape and we are looking to try something a bit different outside of the  Kennebec Highlands trails near us.  

  

Another Bald Mountain to consider is in Oquossoc, part of Rangeley.  It's about 1.3 miles with 900+feet elevation gain to the obs platform, which offers wonderful 360° views - Mooselook Lake to the West and Rangeley Lake to the east, plus lots of mountains.  Last time I climbed it was November 2021, with my son-in-law plus 6 of their 7 kids (the 2-y.o stayed home but the 5 y.o. had a blast) along with 2 neighbor kids.  It's a mile of uphill stroll thru forest then 0.3 miles of steeper, rockier but not vertigo steep, to the summit.

Not much smoke today, but surprisingly breezy along with the forecast lower TD.