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July Medium/ Long Range


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Day 4 NSSL machine learning likes a day 4 threat and days 9, 10 and 11 as an active period.  

https://x.com/TylerSebreezy/status/2076303103263932677

The latest NSSL machine-learning severe probabilities highlight a potential northwest flow setup for a handful of days across the eastern U.S. The risk of some strong to severe storms appears evident at times.

 

 

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https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

 

Multiple rounds of rain/thunderstorms are also possible from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley to the East Coast as shortwaves and frontal systems focus moisture through the period. Marginal Risks of flash flooding are delineated for the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley to Appalachians on Friday, and stretching into the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday.

 

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SOI Dashboard

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values


SOI values for 14 Jul, 2026
Average SOI for last 30 days -23.53
Average SOI for last 90 days -17.62
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -36.56
Monthly average SOI values
Apr -9.88
May -13.22
Jun -22.69

 

Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI
14 Jul 2026 1011.36 1016.35 -36.56 -23.53 -17.62
13 Jul 2026 1010.44 1015.10 -34.53 -23.20 -17.20
12 Jul 2026 1009.89 1015.20 -38.53 -23.21 -16.92
11 Jul 2026 1011.77 1015.80 -30.66 -23.06 -16.66
10 Jul 2026 1013.16 1015.45 -19.94 -22.84 -16.52
9 Jul 2026 1011.59 1014.45 -23.45 -22.68 -16.60
8 Jul 2026 1008.90 1015.20 -44.63 -22.32 -16.71
7 Jul 2026 1009.02 1015.35 -44.81 -21.68 -16.58
6 Jul 2026 1011.31 1015.45 -31.33 -21.34 -16.28
5 Jul 2026 1010.44 1015.25 -35.46 -21.21 -16.03
4 Jul 2026 1010.84 1015.20 -32.69 -21.02 -15.72
3 Jul 2026 1012.59 1014.20 -15.76 -21.11 -15.44
2 Jul 2026 1012.97 1013.80 -10.96 -21.75 -15.38
1 Jul 2026 1013.06 1012.90 -4.86 -22.28 -15.31
30 Jun 2026 1012.34 1013.05 -14.06 -22.69 -15.35
29 Jun 2026 1012.32 1013.40 -16.66 -22.71 -15.25
28 Jun 2026 1012.24 1013.25 -16.17 -23.03 -15.20
27 Jun 2026 1011.64 1014.05 -26.01 -23.61 -15.12
26 Jun 2026 1012.48 1015.20 -28.19 -23.51 -14.93
25 Jun 2026 1012.84 1015.15 -25.31 -22.78 -14.75
24 Jun 2026 1011.76 1015.15 -32.90 -22.11 -14.60
23 Jun 2026 1011.31 1015.45 -38.17 -21.86 -14.34
22 Jun 2026 1012.65 1016.30 -34.73 -21.65 -14.02
21 Jun 2026 1014.99 1017.00 -23.20 -21.10 -13.63
20 Jun 2026 1015.10 1016.25 -17.15 -20.98 -13.17
19 Jun 2026 1014.90 1014.50 -6.26 -21.36 -12.93
18 Jun 2026 1015.57 1014.80 -3.66 -21.66 -12.87
17 Jun 2026 1016.03 1015.35 -4.29 -21.73 -12.88
16 Jun 2026 1015.83 1014.90 -2.53 -21.79 -12.82
15 Jun 2026 1014.24 1014.70 -12.30 -22.62 -12.75

 

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