Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[CoastalWx]

Debris clouds 

[Damage In Tolland]

Smoke 

[Cyclone-68]

This is interesting:

Some of the high-res
guidance is beginning to come around to the idea of showing
convective development trailing back westward along a cold front
with a weakening capping inversion into central VT/NH as soon as
early overnight; but the timing and coverage of this activity still
is pretty scattershot across the high-res suite. This could
ultimately end up being a nowcast situation, but given this trend I
couldn`t really justify NBM`s nil PoPs. Opted for up to 30% PoP
along the MA/NH/VT border between 4-7 AM Wed, then slowly sagging
southward through the day. If any storms develop, they would
likely become strong to potentially severe quickly given the
degree of instability aloft and pretty strong NW mid-level
winds, with frequent lightning, hail and strong straight line
winds all possible, potentially early in the day as well. Low
confidence but potentially higher impact if storms can
materialize.

[BrianW]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Smoke 

 I can smell it outside right now. 

 

[Great Snow 1717]

2 minutes ago, BrianW said:

 I can smell it outside right now. 

 

Methuen borders Lawrence I can always smell smoke where I live in Methuen....

[CoastalWx]

38 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

This is interesting:

Some of the high-res
guidance is beginning to come around to the idea of showing
convective development trailing back westward along a cold front
with a weakening capping inversion into central VT/NH as soon as
early overnight; but the timing and coverage of this activity still
is pretty scattershot across the high-res suite. This could
ultimately end up being a nowcast situation, but given this trend I
couldn`t really justify NBM`s nil PoPs. Opted for up to 30% PoP
along the MA/NH/VT border between 4-7 AM Wed, then slowly sagging
southward through the day. If any storms develop, they would
likely become strong to potentially severe quickly given the
degree of instability aloft and pretty strong NW mid-level
winds, with frequent lightning, hail and strong straight line
winds all possible, potentially early in the day as well. Low
confidence but potentially higher impact if storms can
materialize.

Some hi res show an iso storm around here tomorrow. Probably ends up south though. 

[Typhoon Tip]

11 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Time of day does matter if you want to realize the max sfc temp for the day using 850.  Reaching 27 C after peak heating is not the same for sfc temp as already being 27 C in the morning and the mixing out fully for peak heating.

I knew what you meant ...  I was just adding for general readers that physics requires that a well mixed column has to obey the adiabat temperature distribution in general.   If it is 2 am , and the 850 is 20C, and it is well mixed, it's in the 90s at the sfc. 

Whether or not the atmosphere is can be well mixed at 2 am or not is another matter LOL.

That's why nearing evening on hot days, if one is excruciatingly nerdy enough like me... they might notice the light west wind that had steadily rustled leafs all afternoon suddenly goes calm; it's because the surface - albeit still hotter'n Hades - has slipped below the adiabat.  That adiabatic temperature might be 98 given the 850, but the sfc has by then slipped below that temp...etc.  DP plays a role... if the air is heavier it may stay elevated longer.   The other way to think of it is that the mixing height has slipped lower than 850, and if there is a weaker/no gradient in that level, there extinguishes the momentum.

[Cyclone-68]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Some hi res show an iso storm around here tomorrow. Probably ends up south though. 

Wiz to his credit mentioned this as a possibility just yesterday