Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, frd said:

If we do get cross polar flow later in November this might move into Canada and then move SE based on a - AO regime. 

 

FLXweather-Dave

 

@FXweather26823

 

 

In the U.S, we tend to focus on northern Canada for the annual rebuilding of cold air in the Fall, but Siberia is the true cold air factory, and it's producing a surplus right now. Much colder than normal air has spread all the way to, and beyond, the Mongolia & China border.

 

 

 

 

Mongolian high pressure is our best cold source friend 

[LongRanger]

SSWs would be more exciting if we knew displaced polar air was headed our way, but we don't, at least not yet. The cold and snow might just as easily wind up elsewhere.

[Bob Chill]

Strat stuff often muddies the forecasting water because there is no straightforward effect on the troposphere. Sometimes it helps, sometimes it doesn't mean jack squat lol. And I've never seen anyone consistently forecast how a SSW event affects sensible wx. We know what it "can" do but we also know not to read too deeply into it until you can see the effect on the longwave pattern in the troposphere. 

That said, this is an unusually strong event very early in the season. I wouldn't be surprised if this event kick starts a long duration -AO late Nov into Dec. Seasonal models have been honking a -AO in jan/Feb for months. It's hard not to like what we're seeing right now. We don't need siberian air to get snowstorms. Normal continental cold with a suppressed storm track is often enough in DJF. 

 

[TSSN+]

If anyone seen latest cfs monthlies on Tropical tidbits went complete torch and way drier. Storm systems just seem so hard to come by anymore. Hope it was just a crap run and starts to go back the other way and not keep getting worse lol. 

[SnowenOutThere]

19 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Guess it makes sense that if you keep increasing poleward heat fluxes you'll start to mess with the polar vortex more. No clue how that plays onto the rest of winter but I'll ask my climatology professor about it tomorrow. 

"I am skeptical that the polar vortex is well enough defined this early in the season for there to be any impacts on the troposphere. That said, if there is an impact on our sensible weather, which I am doubtful of, then I would expect a very cold November."

Seems about right. Personally, I think we are waiting on two main things to determine the early character of this winter. 

1. Does the wet pattern start by the end of next weekend? Models have advertised this for a while and I'd argue its the first real sign of the el-nino coupling with the atmosphere in a way that matters for us. If this pattern is continuously can-kicked that is a sign of trouble for our STJ hopes  this winter.

2. Does the SSW occur? If so, do we see a related cold air outbreak on the models for late November? Additionally, how does the AO and NAO respond. If we get a favorable AO/NAO showing up on forecasts for November and December I'd argue that is a good sign we might have a shot this winter.  

[Weather Will]

WB latest EURO weeklies run for the 7 day period ending 12/13 is not a torch.  Is is going to snow in December?  Who knows!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

17 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Strat stuff often muddies the forecasting water because there is no straightforward effect on the troposphere. Sometimes it helps, sometimes it doesn't mean jack squat lol. And I've never seen anyone consistently forecast how a SSW event affects sensible wx. We know what it "can" do but we also know not to read too deeply into it until you can see the effect on the longwave pattern in the troposphere. 

That said, this is an unusually strong event very early in the season. I wouldn't be surprised if this event kick starts a long duration -AO late Nov into Dec. Seasonal models have been honking a -AO in jan/Feb for months. It's hard not to like what we're seeing right now. We don't need siberian air to get snowstorms. Normal continental cold with a suppressed storm track is often enough in DJF. 

 

A lot of people don't know this, but a composite for the most warm 10mb Winters (NDJFM) have above average temps in the Northeast, US and cold Stratosphere Winters below average temps in the Northeast, US. The anomaly over Greenland extends south. Of course in shorter time periods there is AO-correlation. 

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

"I am skeptical that the polar vortex is well enough defined this early in the season for there to be any impacts on the troposphere. That said, if there is an impact on our sensible weather, which I am doubtful of, then I would expect a very cold November."

Seems about right. Personally, I think we are waiting on two main things to determine the early character of this winter. 

1. Does the wet pattern start by the end of next weekend? Models have advertised this for a while and I'd argue its the first real sign of the el-nino coupling with the atmosphere in a way that matters for us. If this pattern is continuously can-kicked that is a sign of trouble for our STJ hopes  this winter.

2. Does the SSW occur? If so, do we see a related cold air outbreak on the models for late November? Additionally, how does the AO and NAO respond. If we get a favorable AO/NAO showing up on forecasts for November and December I'd argue that is a good sign we might have a shot this winter.  

I'm starting to think we need Krakatoa to erupt before we break out of this dry base state.  

[TSSN+]

39 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB latest EURO weeklies run for the 7 day period ending 12/13 is not a torch.  Is is going to snow in December?  Who knows!

Canada cooking is a great sign.. lol