Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[TSSN+]

All I know is I want to be in one of the first one of these. 
 

“The National Weather Service will implement the use of “Particularly Dangerous Situation” wording in select Blizzard Warnings and Ice Storm Warnings this season. This language will help forecasters alert partners and the public about high-confidence blizzards or ice storms of historic severity. These rare events typically pose exceptional threats by posing imminent danger to life and unprecedented disruptions to emergency services.”

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

This is most likely an ignorant question but do we know if the seasonal models are advertising a permanent low or transient lows in that area?

A low in the mean, so it doesn't guarantee a permanent low.

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Past does not necessarily correlate to future outcomes.  But Chuck is 100% right about his observed flaw in the long range guidance.  It wasn't just 2024, they did the same thing in 2019 also, continuously advertising a canonical nino look in the pacific that never actually materialized.  That doesn't mean the same thing happens again, but it would be foolish to stick our heads in the sand bout that fact.  Until we actually see a nino north pac pattern set in I would be skeptical also!  

I disagree with Chuck about the position of the N Pac low being fine if it's east based.  But most won't want to hear this.  He is right that if you run a mean of our biggest snowstorms there is a low just off the Pac NW coast.  The issue is how we get there.  That low isn't typically as strong as a super nino one will be.  Additionally it's usually part of a retrograding pattern and it wasn't there the whole time, the cold for the snowstorm was set up then as the pattern retrogrades a transient low there sets in motion the snowstorm.  That is also why we usually warm up soon after our biggest snowstorms...because a low there floods CONUS with pac puke.  

A permanent low all winter there would NOT be the same as a transient low there following a favorable pattern for cold.  A permanent strong low just off the Pac NW would flood the CONUS with mild pac puke airmass.  

This doesn't mean we can't get a big snowstorm.  There might we windows.  The pac pattern will fluctuate some.  We probably need a favorable AO/NAO and who knows.  But we're going to be fighting some very uphill battles, some of which we have been fighting for the last 10 years.

 

@CAPE you're right it can snow during these hostile underlying issues, but the fact is it has snowed less in the last 10 years than any 10 year period in history!  No one is saying we know how the winter will play out for sure...but when making these seasonal predictions it's about probabilities, and the results under this pacific pdo regime have shown the math favors less snow.  So yes we're rooting for a fluke, but you don't base a seasonal forecast one "maybe we get lucky".  

Thing is, the end of the Eps run from last night has a trough off the west coast retrograding wnw toward the GOA and the Euro weeklies have been, for at least 4 days in a row (could be longer, but I stopped at 4) putting a trough in the GOA and the SE US where the seasonal put them come mid-late November, subject to slight model to model variations. So we still need to wait as I ended my convo with Chuck, but MR is now lining up with seasonal progs, and that's as good as we can get from this point in time.

P.s. It's been discussed some in other forums, but the North Pole ice shield is the largest in 10 or more years. Odd that could happen in this super Niño. 

[Terpeast]

48 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

All I know is I want to be in one of the first one of these. 
 

“The National Weather Service will implement the use of “Particularly Dangerous Situation” wording in select Blizzard Warnings and Ice Storm Warnings this season. This language will help forecasters alert partners and the public about high-confidence blizzards or ice storms of historic severity. These rare events typically pose exceptional threats by posing imminent danger to life and unprecedented disruptions to emergency services.”

So would I for blizzards.

But from their message, I wonder why they didn’t include flood warnings. I would think that flood warnings would be a top case for that kind of wording. 

[mitchnick]

15 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Thing is, the end of the Eps run from last night has a trough off the west coast retrograding wnw toward the GOA and the Euro weeklies have been, for at least 4 days in a row (could be longer, but I stopped at 4) putting a trough in the GOA and the SE US where the seasonal put them come mid-late November, subject to slight model to model variations. So we still need to wait as I ended my convo with Chuck, but MR is now lining up with seasonal progs, and that's as good as we can get from this point in time.

P.s. It's been discussed some in other forums, but the North Pole ice shield is the largest in 10 or more years. Odd that could happen in this super Niño. 

I should have included this as part of my thinking that this year will be better than 23/24. Compare the 10/23 forecast (top) from the Euro seasonal to the 10/26 forecast. Cfs2 was already painting a well AN winter forecast as of mid October, 2023.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/cfsv2_fcst_history/202310/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html

[TSSN+]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

So would I for blizzards.

But from their message, I wonder why they didn’t include flood warnings. I would think that flood warnings would be a top case for that kind of wording. 

Don’t we already have flood emergencies/warnings already?

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Thing is, the end of the Eps run from last night has a trough off the west coast retrograding wnw toward the GOA and the Euro weeklies have been, for at least 4 days in a row (could be longer, but I stopped at 4) putting a trough in the GOA and the SE US where the seasonal put them come mid-late November, subject to slight model to model variations. So we still need to wait as I ended my convo with Chuck, but MR is now lining up with seasonal progs, and that's as good as we can get from this point in time.

P.s. It's been discussed some in other forums, but the North Pole ice shield is the largest in 10 or more years. Odd that could happen in this super Niño. 

This is just an observation, in 2019 and 2024 the canonical nino look on guidance would often make it as close as about day 7-8 on the guidance, then evaporate back out to day 14 or 15 and repeat.  In the next few weeks it would be a very good sign if this look at at week 2 actually becomes a reality.  If it starts remaining locked at hour 300+ then the models may be doing the same thing they did in the last 2 nino's.   I have no insight here other than observing this trend.  

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

This is just an observation, in 2019 and 2024 the canonical nino look on guidance would often make it as close as about day 7-8 on the guidance, then evaporate back out to day 14 or 15 and repeat.  In the next few weeks it would be a very good sign if this look at at week 2 actually becomes a reality.  If it starts remaining locked at hour 300+ then the models may be doing the same thing they did in the last 2 nino's.   I have no insight here other than observing this trend.  

As always, if it doesn't happen on or around the time as proged, we may be in trouble. 

Fwiw, today’s weeklies establish the trough around the GOA the first week of November and holds it through the last week. We won't have long to wait.

P.s. Today's weeklies put a nice hit on the PV too. This has been advertised for a few days now.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202610190000

[Weather Will]

In JB recent WB post reading that Nino is peaking now, earlier than normal.  Is there consensus on that fact?  He also indicates that December will be cooler than a typical strong Nino year.  Hope that is right.  Maybe we won't be wearing shorts on Christmas!

[CAPE]

23 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

In JB recent WB post reading that Nino is peaking now, earlier than normal.  Is there consensus on that fact?  He also indicates that December will be cooler than a typical strong Nino year.  Hope that is right.  Maybe we won't be wearing shorts on Christmas!

You mean consensus on that OPINION. JB is a hypster and not necessarily associated with disseminating facts.

[TSSN+]

32 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

In JB recent WB post reading that Nino is peaking now, earlier than normal.  Is there consensus on that fact?  He also indicates that December will be cooler than a typical strong Nino year.  Hope that is right.  Maybe we won't be wearing shorts on Christmas!

JB used to be good at forecasting like 10+ years ago. He’s pretty much a hypecaster and says nonsense nowadays. 

[mitchnick]

31 minutes ago, CAPE said:

You mean consensus on that OPINION. JB is a hypster and not necessarily associated with disseminating facts.

He might be looking at the Cfs2 for that December comment. It's been coming in for the past week AN, but not by a whole lot. Idk. We'd have to get pretty lucky for December to deliver anything of consequence. Otoh, the exception is 12/82 when BWI was +3.4 and still had a little over 7" thanks to a 1/2" event and a Sunday night surprise of almost 7".

 

[Ephesians2]

I come from the future. 

                                          STATION:   LYNCHBURG VA
                                          MONTH:     DECEMBER
                                          YEAR:      2026
                                          LATITUDE:   37 19 N
                                          LONGITUDE:  79 12 W

  TEMPERATURE IN F:       :PCPN:    SNOW:  WIND      :SUNSHINE: SKY     :PK WND
================================================================================
1   2   3   4   5  6A  6B    7    8   9   10  11  12  13   14  15   16   17  18
                                     12Z  AVG MX 2MIN
DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD  WTR  SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX    SPD DR
================================================================================

 1  73  45  59  17   6   0 0.00  0.0    0  6.0 15 300   M    M   1 1      25 310
 2  52  42  47   5  18   0 1.18  0.0    0  6.9 13  50   M    M  10        18  50
 3  49  37  43   1  22   0 0.95  0.0    0  2.5 10  40   M    M  10 1      13  40
 4  60  37  49   7  16   0 0.00  0.0    0  4.0 10 200   M    M   3 12     15 210
 5  69  42  56  15   9   0 0.00  0.0    0  5.7 17 190   M    M   1 12     25 190
 6  73  49  61  20   4   0 0.00  0.0    0  4.5 15  40   M    M   2        20  40
 7  70  51  61  20   4   0 0.00  0.0    0  8.7 26 200   M    M   6        39 200
 8  62  49  56  15   9   0 0.64  0.0    0  4.6 13 270   M    M   9 1      22 280
 9  66  43  55  14  10   0 0.00  0.0    0  3.1 15 260   M    M   2 12     23 280
10  73  53  63  23   2   0 0.00  0.0    0  4.9 15 190   M    M   1        22 190
11  77  56  67  27   0   2 0.00  0.0    0  8.6 23 190   M    M   1        32 210
12  63  39  51  11  14   0 1.48  0.0    0  5.0 16  10   M    M  10 12     30  20
13  58  34  46   6  19   0 0.00  0.0    0 11.3 30 200   M    M   0        43 200
14  67  32  50  10  15   0 0.00  0.0    0  3.9 12 310   M    M   0        20 310
15  76  50  63  24   2   0 0.07  0.0    0  6.9 14  40   M    M   7 1      20  40
16  66  42  54  15  11   0 2.16  0.0    0 13.6 30 220   M    M  10 3      48 220
17  51  33  42   3  23   0 0.00  0.0    0  7.4 16 260   M    M   3        28 270
18  64  45  55  16  10   0 0.20  0.0    0  4.8 14 190   M    M   8        19 200
19  70  48  59  20   6   0 0.00  0.0    0  2.3  9 220   M    M   3        14 350
20  74  51  63  25   2   0    T  0.0    0  7.5 22 190   M    M   6        36 180
21  68  53  61  23   4   0 0.01  0.0    0  2.5 12 360   M    M   6        21 340
22  77  44  61  23   4   0 0.00  0.0    0  5.5 17 200   M    M   0        29 270
23  74  43  59  21   6   0 0.03  0.0    0  7.0 21 300   M    M   6        36 320
24  63  44  54  16  11   0 0.00  0.0    0  4.6 14  70   M    M   0        24  40
25  73  43  58  21   7   0 0.00  0.0    0  4.9 17 190   M    M   0        23 140
26  80  54  67  30   0   2 0.10  0.0    0  8.8 18 200   M    M   7 3      28 210
27  69  47  58  21   7   0 2.31  0.0    0  7.4 17  40   M    M  10 13     26  30
28  55  34  45   8  20   0 0.00  0.0    0  4.6 14 310   M    M   1        30   0
29  42  37  40   3  25   0 0.62  0.0    0  8.2 22 190   M    M  10        32 200
30  61  44  53  17  12   0 0.16  0.0    0  6.8 16 210   M    M   8        22 210
31  62  50  56  20   9   0 3.70  0.0    0 11.7 23 190   M    M  10 3      30 200
================================================================================
SM 2037 1371       307   4 13.61  0.0    194.2          M       86
================================================================================
AV 65.7 44.2                               6.3 FASTST   M    M   5    MAX(MPH)
                                 MISC ---->  # 30 200                 48 220
================================================================================
NOTES:
# LAST OF SEVERAL OCCURRENCES

COLUMN 17 PEAK WIND IN M.P.H.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA (WS FORM: F-6) , PAGE 2

                                          STATION:   LYNCHBURG VA
                                          MONTH:     DECEMBER
                                          YEAR:      2026
                                          LATITUDE:   37 19 N
                                          LONGITUDE:  79 12 W

[TEMPERATURE DATA]      [PRECIPITATION DATA]       SYMBOLS USED IN COLUMN 16

AVERAGE MONTHLY: 55.2   TOTAL FOR MONTH:  13.61    1 = FOG OR MIST
DPTR FM NORMAL:  16.0   DPTR FM NORMAL:   +10.11   2 = FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY
                                                   3 = THUNDER

•