Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[Bob Chill]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

I didn't mean to single you out, but keep seeing posts about how Oct snow means doom for winter. Maybe a case can be made about specific patterns that set up in October correlating to an overall unfavorable pattern for the winter.

Big november snow also locks in a crappy winter. The big sample size of 1987 was used in my deep analysis. 

[mitchnick]

Updated October Euro seasonal out. Temos around the same as September.'s. But a little wetter than September. 

These maps are for DJF combined fyi.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_2mtm?area=NAME&base_time=202610010000&stats=ensm&valid_time=202612020000

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_rain?area=NAME&base_time=202610010000&stats=ensm&valid_time=202612020000

[mitchnick]

I believe @Weather Will and @CAPE would have monthly Euro seasonal maps. Hint, hint...!

[psuhoffman]

On 10/3/2026 at 10:01 AM, WxUSAF said:

02-03 winter in state college was epic and made up (mostly) for the dismal first 3 winters I had there. We had snow for Halloween 2002 and winter kept going until Easter 2003.

That was my last winter there and the only good one I experienced.  I remember the Halloween snow.  

[bncho]

20 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I believe @Weather Will and @CAPE would have monthly Euro seasonal maps. Hint, hint...!

 

 

[bncho]

I don’t know how WW does this for a living it took like 10 entire minutes to copy and paste the images

[mitchnick]

I'll try this again. Lol

I like how the Euro has 850 temp anomalies for most of the forum under 1C for the DJF period. The SLP for the periid is tasty too.

Sorry about the 850 map, but that's all money can buy you on the free site. Bncho?

[Eskimo Joe]

@griteater posting

 

 

[ravensrule]

4 hours ago, bncho said:

I don’t know how WW does this for a living it took like 10 entire minutes to copy and paste the images

He is retired, he has plenty of free time. Thank you @Weather Will for giving all your free time to this board. 

[CAPE]

4 hours ago, mitchnick said:

I'll try this again. Lol

I like how the Euro has 850 temp anomalies for most of the forum under 1C for the DJF period. The SLP for the periid is tasty too.

Sorry about the 850 map, but that's all money can buy you on the free site. Bncho?

H5 looks about the same for the winter months.

Feb-

[mitchnick]

13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

H5 looks about the same for the winter months.

Feb-

Cfs2 and Euro are starting to look verrrrry similar. Still have the NMME, Jamstec and JMA fwiw. In the end, the +precip looks to be a lock, so it'll be up to whether we can squeeze just enough cold air from the north. I could see a train of disturbances coming along with the first being rain, but pulling down enough cold in its wake to setup snow in the follow-up system; or even rain to snow or snow to rain prevailing throughout the season. I  think we should have a hint of our chances by Thanksgiving since the 5H looks pretty uniform thru the winter months. 

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Cfs2 and Euro are starting to look verrrrry similar. Still have the NMME, Jamstec and JMA fwiw. In the end, the +precip looks to be a lock, so it'll be up to whether we can squeeze just enough cold air from the north. I could see a train of disturbances coming along with the first being rain, but pulling down enough cold in its wake to setup snow in the follow-up system; or even rain to snow or snow to rain prevailing throughout the season. I  think we should have a hint of our chances by Thanksgiving since the 5H looks pretty uniform thru the winter months. 

I meant to add that I am surprised the Euro didn't come in warmer for December. What it shows suggests December has a chance for accumulating snow for most of the forum, albeit modest the way those temps look.