Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[Maestrobjwa]

In case anybody thinks I'm being too much of doomer about having to wait at least three years if this nino doesn't deliver a big snow: With the assumption that the ninas double dip...it's either this year or 29-30 for the next chance:

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

 Looking at El Niño seasons that at some point maxed out at +2.0C for a trimonthly in Nino 3.4 (using Eric Webb’s tables for pre-1950 and the latest version of NOAA RONI for 1950+), this is what followed in ASO as well as the subsequent fall/winter:

1877-8: ASO +0.1 followed by cold neutral
1888-9: ASO -1.1 followed by strong La Niña
1965-6: ASO 0.0 followed by cold neutral
1972-3: ASO -1.3 followed by strong La Niña
1982-3: ASO -0.6 followed by moderate La Niña
1991-2: ASO +0.1 followed by weak El Niño
1997-8: ASO -1.2 followed by strong La Niña
2015-6: ASO -0.9 followed by moderate La Niña


Tally for these 8 strongest El Niños on record:

5 La Niña (3 strong, 2 moderate) (62.5%)
2 cold neutral (25%)
1 weak El Niño (12.5%)

So, this suggests the best chance is clearly for La Niña although it also suggests to not dismiss the possibility of something else, mainly cold neutral, especially IF this were to peak later than model consensus has been suggesting (say, in Jan instead of Nov). Of the 3 of these that didn’t go to La Niña, 1877-8 peaked between NDJ and DJF while 1991-2 peaked in DJF. OTOH, 1965-6 peaked early (OND) and still didn’t go all the way to La Niña the following year as it stopped at cold neutral. Note that the 3 that were neutral in ASO never made it to La Niña.
____________________

Sources of data:

1. Webb’s tables (used for pre-1950):

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

 

2. NOAA RONI (1950+):
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/

 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

In case anybody thinks I'm being too much of doomer about having to wait at least three years if this nino doesn't deliver a big snow: With the assumption that the ninas double dip...it's either this year or 29-30 for the next chance:

 

1. The best hope for 2027-8 might be for it to be like 3 of these 8 analogs and not be La Niña for the NE:

1878-9: near to AN snow

1966-7: well AN snow

1992-3: BN to AN snow

 

2. Regarding the snow for the 5 that did become LN, not good:

1889-90: BN

1973-4: NN

1983-4: BN

1998-9: BN

2016-7: MBN

[psuhoffman]

21 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

In case anybody thinks I'm being too much of doomer about having to wait at least three years if this nino doesn't deliver a big snow: With the assumption that the ninas double dip...it's either this year or 29-30 for the next chance:

 

It is true that 6 of the last 7 HECS storms came in a nino but those are such super rare events anyways.  We've had plenty of SECS/MECS events in other enso states, at least until recently.  Recently we've not had big snowtorms in ANY enso state.  The last 2 Nino's didn't produce a significant snow for Baltimore either.  If this winter does not that would be 3 in a row.  At some point maybe you just have to accept a difficult truth.  

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It is true that 6 of the last 7 HECS storms came in a nino but those are such super rare events anyways.  We've had plenty of SECS/MECS events in other enso states, at least until recently.  Recently we've not had big snowtorms in ANY enso state.  The last 2 Nino's didn't produce a significant snow for Baltimore either.  If this winter does not that would be 3 in a row.  At some point maybe you just have to accept a difficult truth.  

Something had to change though. It has been a decade of futility for us western folks. I will take my chances with some wound up bombs for once. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

It is true that 6 of the last 7 HECS storms came in a nino but those are such super rare events anyways.  We've had plenty of SECS/MECS events in other enso states, at least until recently.  Recently we've not had big snowtorms in ANY enso state.  The last 2 Nino's didn't produce a significant snow for Baltimore either.  If this winter does not that would be 3 in a row.  At some point maybe you just have to accept a difficult truth.  

I mean at least if this one doesn't produce there's a known reason (super east based). Does it belong in the same category as the other two? What does bother me is how a switch suddenly flipped in 2016. Yeah I know the snow margins overall were going down in the two decades before...but that period of time still had footers (what I call storms over 12") every 3-4 years, with that heater between 2010-2016. Then after 2016 and it all just stops cold. No slow decline, just outright stops...I thought climo change was supposed to be gradual? Lol That's what makes me wonder if the super niño back then accelerated things, or made the atmosphereor can this one "reset" things once again?

But if the next niño after this one behaves the same way the previous two did then yeah we might be cooked, smh

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

Something had to change though. It has been a decade of futility for us western folks. I will take my chances with some wound up bombs for once. 

At some point we will get a big snowstorm again.  I am not saying it will never snow again.  However, we are in a hostile PDO cycle.  You can track these long term cycles and see the impact on our snowfall.  The issue is the hostile periods are becoming MORE hostile.  It's becoming VERY difficult to get big snowfall years during hostile cycles.  It was never easy during hostile pacific cycles but now its becoming increasingly unlikely to even luck into some fluke snowy seasons during a hostile period.  Eventually we will... I don't think it's impossible just less and less likely.  And eventually the PDO will flip again and we will have a more favorable cycle and probably a period of 15-20 years with "more" snowfall but the last 2 favorable cycles showed a decrease from period "snowy" cycles also so don't expect another 1960's or even another 2000-2016 period.  But we will see snowier periods than what we've just experienced again.  But my point is using past "normal" trends to set expectations is flawed since we know things are changing and becoming more hostile.  

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I mean at least if this one doesn't produce there's a known reason (super east based). Does it belong in the same category as the other two? What does bother me is how a switch suddenly flipped in 2016. Yeah I know the snow margins overall were going down in the two decades before...but that period of time still had footers (what I call storms over 12") every 3-4 years, with that heater between 2010-2016. Then after 2016 and it all just stops cold. No slow decline, just outright stops...I thought climo change was supposed to be gradual? Lol That's what makes me wonder if the super niño back then accelerated things, or made the atmosphereor can this one "reset" things once again?

But if the next niño after this one behaves the same way the previous two did then yeah we might be cooked, smh

3 ninos is 3 ninos.  You're digging too deep trying to find a silver lining.  But lets wait until we actually fail before we start this analysis.  I think we have a 40-50% chance of a big snowstorm this winter.  Let's hope luck is on our side.  

 

But 2 things to keep in mind.  The nino is 2016 warmed the pacific and super charged what was already a bad trend.  And we've been in a very hostile pacific pattern ever since.  Similar past periods with a similarly hostile long term cycle were low snowfall also, but things are getting worse so a bad cycle now is REALLY REALLY REALLY bad.  It's that simple...the pattern we've been in the last 10 years would have been a bad snowfall period in any era, but now with warming bad is super awful bad.  That's it... it's pretty simple.  

[WEATHER53]

2026-2027 Winter Outlook 

Temps

Dec:0 to +2

Jan:-1 to +1

Feb:-5

Snowfall range 20-25”  

primary analogs:1962-63, 2002-03, 2012-13 

There are variabilities in those years but they best compare to what I observed this spring thru now.

We do get some Miller As this year and some repeats of what we just had with lows being more intense and closer to the coast .  Problem is temps like in 97-98 but Feb looks plenty cold enough .

 

[AlexD1990]

8 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

2026-2027 Winter Outlook 

Temps

Dec:0 to +2

Jan:-1 to +1

Feb:-5

Snowfall range 20-25”  

primary analogs:1962-63, 2002-03, 2012-13 

There are variabilities in those years but they best compare to what I observed this spring thru now.

We do get some Miller As this year and some repeats of what we just had with lows being more intense and closer to the coast .  Problem is temps like in 97-98 but Feb looks plenty cold enough .

 

given what most seem to be indicating for the upcoming winter, i think everyone in the sub would take this in a NY minute.