Winter 2026-2027. Historic Potential

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 

 Thanks for posting these. I see these are based on just one run, 8/22/26 at 0Z, as opposed to being based on a mean of multiple runs. To compare, the 3 day/12 run means on Tropical Tidbits and even the 10 day/40 run means directly from the CFSv2 (which I’ve posted here), are of limited value, especially considering how jumpy they often are from one run to the next due to essentially no forecasting value that far out.

 So, this X-post being based on just one run is essentially of no value and was likely chosen by whoever that X-poster is due to how cold it is late in the winter.

 For example, here are the last two single runs from WxBell for Feb ‘27:

6Z 8/23/26: cold in E, warm in W

 

0Z 8/23/26: not surprisingly nearly the exact opposite!

 Here’s that x-post’s Feb. ‘27 map again:

 To help emphasize how laughably frigid this post’s Feb CFSv2 map is in the E US, check out how much colder it is vs the record coldest (in degrees F):

-DC ~20 vs coldest 24.6 (1934)

-Richmond ~22 vs coldest 28.2 (1934)

-Chattanooga ~19 vs coldest 33.8 (1958)

-Atlanta ~25F vs coldest 34.4 (1895)

Cities’ coldest from here:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate

@Terpeast

Yeah the WB singe run CFS is completely useless. I used to mention it whenever someone posted it but it keeps happening so I give up lol.