2026 C and E Pacific tropical activity

[Windspeed]

Polo has some structural changes occurring. Note the two images below. Over the past four hours, the tops are warming around the immediate eye, while a larger / thicker band is expanding out away from the immediate core. The MW scan from earlier today did show some intense banding. Though it would be impressive how quickly that has come to evolve into a concentric feature. However, look at your post. That does appear to be evolving fast on recon's radar. Granted, Polo's eye has been small, and at this intensity, structural changes may evolve rapidly:

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

Polo has some structural changes occurring. Note the two images below. Over the past four hours, the tops are warming around the immediate eye, while a larger / thicker band is expanding out away from the immediate core. The MW scan from earlier today did show some intense banding. Though it would be impressive how quickly that has come to evolve into a concentric feature. However, look at your post. That does appear to be evolving fast on recon's radar. Granted, Polo's eye has been small, and at this intensity, structural changes may evolve rapidly:

Also pressure rose on the last pass. The secondary eyewall does seem to be strengthening based on FL winds as well

[DDweatherman]

1 hour ago, olafminesaw said:

Also pressure rose on the last pass. The secondary eyewall does seem to be strengthening based on FL winds as well

As tight as this core is, could see a quasi-ERC that happens quickly and propels this to even higher strength over the next 18-24 hours. 889 pressure is on the top-10 list 

[olafminesaw]

9 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

As tight as this core is, could see a quasi-ERC that happens quickly and propels this to even higher strength over the next 18-24 hours. 889 pressure is on the top-10 list 

Yep, seems to be nearing completion already based on the latest microwave 

[TheDreamTraveler]

How low can he go? 



 

[olafminesaw]

[WxWatcher007]

Big Island may be in trouble again…

[Jackstraw]

East/Central Pacific has been a Tropical nerds dream this season. Mostly harmless but absolutely beautiful blow torch storms. Polo is another gorgeous Major. I hope we're getting as much research data as possible.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3rd hit of the season for Hawaii!

[olafminesaw]

44 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

3rd hit of the season for Hawaii!

I don't think it's hyperbole to say that all time US records for rainfall could be broken, with the slow movement, size/strength, track and of course terrain enhancement 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I think the 1st one dropped 46" max over the Big island. 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

I don't think it's hyperbole to say that all time US records for rainfall could be broken, with the slow movement, size/strength, track and of course terrain enhancement 

 The very rough 2026 for Hawaii looks to get even rougher later this week!

 TD 15E had formed in the E PAC back on Sep 13th from an AEW that had moved off of Africa way back on Aug 27th. This was actually the very next wave after the one that produced Dolly in the Atlantic! This then degenerated in the E PAC into an open wave late on Sep 15th.

 But one week later (late last night), this reorganized back to TD 15E 405 miles SSE of Hilo, Hawaii, moving WNW. It’s forecasted to become a TS later today and then turn sharply N tonight. It is then forecasted to become a H tomorrow night and reach high end cat 2 H status Fri night while not too far S of the big island of Hawaii meaning a potential serious threat there then:

From the NHC discussion:

The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt on the 
southwest side of a low- to mid-level ridge. This ridge is expected 
to shift eastward and weaken while a mid- to upper-level low dives 
southwestward near the northwestern Hawaiian Islands. This pattern 
change should cause the cyclone to slow down and then turn northward 
or north-northeastward later this week. That motion should take the 
cyclone near the Big Island of Hawaii late Friday or on Saturday. 
Around that time, the upper low is expected to weaken and move 
westward, allowing mid-level ridging to become re-established to the 
north of the system. In response, the cyclone should turn and then 
accelerate westward.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 14.0N 153.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 14.4N 154.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 14.6N 155.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 15.0N 155.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 15.9N 155.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 25/1800Z 17.0N 154.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 17.9N 154.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 18.3N 156.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 18.2N 159.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

[Boston Bulldog]

Simultaneous major hurricanes named Nolo and Polo… surely the public won’t get confused lol

[GaWx]

From the 11AM EDT advisory for TD 15E:

...INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE 
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 154.4W
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM SSE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 525 MI...840 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor the
progress of this system. A Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watch will
likely be required for a portion of the state later today.
——————————

The depression has slowed since the last advisory and seems to be 
moving west-northwestward at about 5 kt. A ridge to the northeast 
of Hawaii is forecast to weaken and slide eastward as a mid- 
latitude trough drops over the northwestern Hawaiian islands. 
This evolution is likely to the cause the cyclone to slow down 
later today or tonight and then turn northward or north- 
northeastward by tomorrow with some increase in forward speed. The 
trough is forecast to move westward this weekend as the ridge 
rebuilds north of Hawaii, which should force a sharp westward turn 
while the cyclone is close to the Big Island. At this time frame, 
it is impossible to know exactly when that turn will happen and, 
unsurprisingly, there is a large north-south spread in the guidance. 
Our best guidance is on the northern side of the track envelope, 
and new NHC forecast remains essentially the same as the last 
advisory.  Interests in the Hawaiian Islands, especially on the Big 
Island, should closely monitor the system, with life-threatening 
catastrophic flooding possible over the steep terrain on this track.

The depression should intensify slowly at first, given the current 
structure of the low-level center not co-located with the mid-level 
circulation as seen on satellite. However, after the system 
develops an inner core, the environment seems conducive for 
significant strengthening, with low shear, high mid-level moisture 
and SSTs from 28-29C.  The rapid intensification probabilities are 
increasing, and the best model guidance is showing this as a major 
hurricane in a few days. Given the environment and the 
best-performing aids (Google DeepMind and HCCA) again showing 
major-hurricane strength, the NHC forecast is raised from the 
previous one and shows the cyclone as a major hurricane when it 
approaches the Big Island of Hawaii by the weekend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 14.5N 154.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 14.7N 155.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 15.0N 155.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 15.7N 155.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 16.7N 154.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 17.6N 154.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 18.2N 154.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 18.1N 157.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 18.7N 160.2W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[olafminesaw]

[olafminesaw]

[Araz07]

Looks like Polo has finished its ERC, I'm curious to see how strong it gets now.

[vortex95]

On 9/22/2026 at 6:00 PM, TheDreamTraveler said:

How low can he go? 



 

May of these are estimated.  Recon in the EPAC were few and far between prior to 2000.  Linda is estimated for instance, but I'd bet good $$ it was near 890 mb.  Rick never had a recon.  Kenna lowest recon pressure measured was 918 mb but it was not sampled at peak intensity.

Recons in the EPAC seem to be dictated by the extent of risk and impact to Mexico and the SW US.

One thing w/ recon everywhere is *timing*.   We do not always catch TCs art peak intensity (Polo looks like we did), and given how fleeting Cat 5 strength is, it is remains a challenge even today. 

One case I recall well was Isabel in 2003.  It first recon was en route when the HU looked very impressive., but it has to turn back due to mechanical issues.  Isabel underwent a quick ERC in the next 24 hr, and the eye almost doubled its size when the recon got there the following day.  They found 920 mb / 140 kt.  Given how much the pressure rises from empirical obs in a ERC, I bet Isabel was close to 900 mb the previous day!  This would have made it the lowest pressure for a tropical Atlantic HU (MDR). NHC did account for this somewhat, calling it 915 mb / 145 kt for a peak intensity that day before in post-season analysis, but good chance it was stronger.

Not raining on the parade here, just given some context of the data set.  There is often a story behind the data and some caveats!