Summer 2026 Banter Thread

[A-L-E-K]

5 hours ago, Brian D said:

The CAD'y wagon will be around some this winter. Mid Dec, and especially a good part of Jan, and maybe a little in early n late Feb. That's how it's lookin to me. 

get ready to MAD

mild and damp

[BeastFromTheEast]

Wouldn’t be surprised if we get a curveball cold month or two this winter.
 

Ofc odds are def leaning towards mild and wet overall ala classic Nino and even just considering our recent trash winter climo regardless of ENSO conditions. 
 

However you can never discount a rando month or two where conditions set up perfectly on our side of the globe for cold/snow while Siberia and the oppo side torches. 
 

 

[Brian D]

5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

get ready to MAD

mild and damp

That's in the mix too. Don't get me wrong, but there will be CAD too. I mentioned this because we are expecting a very mild winter overall with a strong El Nino, but there is more to it than that with the other metrics that influence NA wx patterns. To much hyper focus on one metric. 

[A-L-E-K]

9 minutes ago, Brian D said:

That's in the mix too. Don't get me wrong, but there will be CAD too. I mentioned this because we are expecting a very mild winter overall with a strong El Nino, but there is more to it than that with the other metrics that influence NA wx patterns. To much hyper focus on one metric. 

Counterpoint: get ready to 1877

[Brian D]

August 7

1968: 7.09 inches of rain falls at Mankato. 1,200 homes are damaged. Highways 169 and 22 are blocked by mudslides.

 

1955: The climate record of George W. Richards of Maple Plain ends. He recorded weather data with lively notations on phenology and weather events. He began taking observations when he was eleven in 1883. He continued to take observations for 72 years, with 66 years as a National Weather Service Cooperator. (Note: Awesome dedication to daily wx.)

 

1896: The final day of a massive heat wave brings highs of 104 to Le Sueur and Mazeppa.

 

1863: A Forest City observer sees what he calls a 'perfect tornado.' He noted that it 'drove principally from west to east and lasted about one half hour.'

For Friday, August 7, 2026
1904 - A flash flood near Pueblo, CO, washed a train from the tracks killing 89 passengers. A bridge, weakened by the floodwaters sweeping through the valley below, gave way under the weight of the train dashing all but the sleeping cars into the torrent drowning the occupants. Rail service was frequently interrupted in the Rocky Mountain Region and southwestern U.S. that summer due to numerous heavy downpours which washed out the railroad beds delaying trains as much as five days. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
1918 - Philadelphia, PA, established an all-time record with a high of 106 degrees. New York City experienced its warmest day and night with a low of 82 degrees and a high of 102 degrees. Afternoon highs of 108 degrees at Flemington NJ and Somerville NJ established state records for the month of August. (The Weather Channel) (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)
1984 - El Paso, TX, normally receives 1.21 inches of rain in August. They got it in forty-five minutes, with four more inches to boot, during a storm which left Downtown El Paso under five feet of water. (The Weather Channel)
1986 - A rare outbreak of seven tornadoes occurred in New England. One tornado carved its way through Cranston RI and Providence RI causing twenty injuries. Rhode Island had not reported a tornado in twelve years, and three touched down in 24 hours. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
1987 - Morning thunderstorms drenched Goldsboro, NC, with 3.37 inches of rain. Late morning thunderstorms in Arizona produced dime size hail, wind gusts to 50 mph, and two inches of rain, at Sierra Vista. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1988 - A dozen cities in the central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Waco, TX, with a reading of 107 degrees. The record high of 88 degrees at Marquette, MI, was their twenty-third of the year. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in Nebraska, Minnesota and Wisconsin, with wind gusts to 81 mph reported at McCool, NE. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1989 - Forty cities in the central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Valentine, NE, with a reading of 40 degrees, and Belcourt ND with a low of 37 degrees. Martin SD was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 30 degrees. Unseasonably hot weather prevailed over Florida and Washington State, with record highs of 100 degrees at Daytona Beach, FL, 101 degrees at Walla Walla, WA, and 103 degrees at Hanford, WA. (The National Weather Summary)

Observances:

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[Brian D]

1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said:

Counterpoint: get ready to 1877

or 2023/24 in your humble opinion. That rivaled 1877/78 winter. To each his own, we'll see.  

[A-L-E-K]

 

 

[A-L-E-K]

 

 

[michsnowfreak]

22 hours ago, roardog said:

I think Christmas 1982 has given everyone the misconception that a strong Nino is likely to have these outrageously warm high temperatures in the winter. The majority of the winter warmth usually comes from mild overnight lows due to the lack of arctic airmasses causing a lot of cloudy, mild overnight lows from constant pacific airmasses. You want a "super Nina" if you want those really warm daytime highs.

This x10000.

The uniqueness of having record breaking warmth on Christmas Day, such as we had in 1982, helps it live on in memories of all who experienced it. Do you remember a random 60-65F day if it was on Dec 11th or Jan 10th? No. But if its on Dec 25th...yes. Also, that winter was extraordinarily snowless here, and bad luck certainly played a roll. After the December warmth, January/February had plenty of days cold enough for snow (tho they were both mild in the mean), it was just dry dry dry. 1982-83 was well on its way to all-time futility until a 7.3" snowstorm on the 1st day of spring, and another 3.4" snow in mid-April, screwed it. 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Counterpoint: get ready to 1877

1877-78 was certainly a mild winter region-wide, but the core of the anomalies were in the far upper midwest (ie: MN). Detroit had a 14.8" snowstorm on Jan 31st. Season snowfall totaled 43.4". December and March were very warm, but Jan/Feb only a bit milder than normal and with plenty of winter weather. 

Locally there were several shittier winters of that era. I wish someone would do a study on the insane weather patterns that gripped this region for nearly a decade worth of winters. The rubber band snap every other year was incredible, unlike anything in the climate record. But it was so long ago, its never mentioned. 8 straight winters from 1874-82, and each winter STILL resides in Detroits top 20 warm/cold winters on record.

1874-75: 2nd coldest
1875-76: 19th warmest
1876-77: 19th coldest
1877-78: 16th warmest
1878-79: 14th coldest
1879-80: 12th warmest
1880-81: 13th coldest
1881-82: 1st warmest
 

[nvck]

woke up to t'storms this morning, something like 500 strikes in a 5/10 mile radius around me. picked up about a half inch from that. rounds of showers started around 2 hours ago, not a ton of thunder, but up to 2" on the day so far. will probably pick up another 0.5" if we're lucky

[CheeselandSkies]

On 7/28/2026 at 9:23 AM, madwx said:

a bit of personal news.  Will be moving to the Twin Cities in August, been busy with all that entails so haven't been able to be on the board much but hoping to be on here again after the move!

Congrats, will miss having another Madisonian on the board, though.

[TheClimateChanger]

9 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

1877-78 was certainly a mild winter region-wide, but the core of the anomalies were in the far upper midwest (ie: MN). Detroit had a 14.8" snowstorm on Jan 31st. Season snowfall totaled 43.4". December and March were very warm, but Jan/Feb only a bit milder than normal and with plenty of winter weather. 

Locally there were several shittier winters of that era. I wish someone would do a study on the insane weather patterns that gripped this region for nearly a decade worth of winters. The rubber band snap every other year was incredible, unlike anything in the climate record. But it was so long ago, its never mentioned. 8 straight winters from 1874-82, and each winter STILL resides in Detroits top 20 warm/cold winters on record.

1874-75: 2nd coldest
1875-76: 19th warmest
1876-77: 19th coldest
1877-78: 16th warmest
1878-79: 14th coldest
1879-80: 12th warmest
1880-81: 13th coldest
1881-82: 1st warmest
 

Yeah, that was the case in Cleveland as well. I think I read 22”, but unfortunately no official snowfall records at that time. The official records only note 1.85” of liquid equivalent. The article below is probably an exaggeration (20” in 3 hours), but I did read elsewhere there were insane rates… however, if memory serves, it was more like 8” in 2 or 3 hours.

[A-L-E-K]

We ride

 

 

[Brian D]

August 8

1930: A record high of 102 is set at Redwood Falls.

For Saturday, August 8, 2026
1878 - The temperature at Denver, CO, soars to an all-time record high of 105 degrees. (The Weather Channel)
1881 - A cloudburst and flash flood occurred at Central Springs, CO, and Idaho Springs, CO. (David Ludlum)
1882 - An August snowstorm was reported by a ship on Lake Michigan. A thick cloud reportedly burst on the decks covering them with snow and slush six inches deep. Snow showers were observed at shore points that day. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) (Note: WOW!)
1983 - The temperature at Big Horn Basin, WY, reached 115 degrees to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel)
1987 - Thunderstorm rains in eastern Nebraska sent the Wahoo River and Ithica River above flood stage. Thunderstorm rains in western Iowa sent the Nishnabotna River over flood stage. Up to seven inches of rain deluged the Council Bluffs area Friday evening and Saturday morning. Thunderstorms produced 4.4 inches of rain in three hours Friday evening, along with golf ball size hail. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1988 - Thunderstorms developing along a slow moving cold front produced severe weather from central Kansas to southern Wisconsin late in the day. Thunderstorms in Iowa produced hail three inches in diameter at Vinton, and produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Donohue and near Mount Pleasant. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1989 - A total of ninety-nine cities in the central and eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Alpena MI with a reading of 40 degrees. Mount Mitchell NC was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 35 degrees. Early evening thunderstorms around Las Vegas NV produced wind gusts to 116 mph. The high winds damaged or destroyed about eighty- two aircraft at Henderson Sky Harbor Airport and McCarran International Airport, causing fourteen million dollars damage. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

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[Brian D]

August 9

1948: 7.72 inches of rain falls at Mankato.

For Sunday, August 9, 2026
1878 - The second most deadly tornado in New England history struck Wallingford CT killing 34 persons, injuring 100 others, and completely destroying thirty homes. The tornado started as a waterspout over a dam on the Quinnipiac River. It was 400 to 600 feet wide, and had a short path length of two miles. (The Weather Channel)
1969 - A tornado hit Cincinnati OH killing four persons and causing fifteen million dollars property damage. The tornado moved in a southeasterly direction at 40 to 50 mph. (The Weather Channel)
1987 - Florida baked in the summer heat. Nine cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Jacksonville with a reading of 101 degrees. Miami FL reported a record high of 98 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)
1988 - Tropical Storm Beryl deluged Biloxi with 6.32 inches of rain in 24 hours, and in three days drenched Pascagoula MS with 15.85 inches of rain. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Southern Plains Region and over the Central High Plains Region. Thunderstorms in Oklahoma produced wind gusts to 92 mph at Harrah. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1989 - Evening thunderstorms in Arizona deluged Yuma with record torrential rains for the second time in two weeks. The rainfall total of 5.25 inches at the Yuma Quartermaster Depot established a state 24 hour record, and was nearly double the normal annual rainfall. Some of the homes were left with four feet of water in them. Seventy-six cities in the south central and eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Lake Charles LA equalled their record for August with a low of 61 degrees. Canaan Valley WV was the cold spot in the nation with a low of 32 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1992 - A tornado packing winds estimated between 113 and 157 mph caused significant damage to the town of Chester, South Dakota. Shortly after 7 pm CDT a tornado tore right through the heart of Chester causing considerable damage. Four businesses were destroyed, three others had significant damage, and five had minor damage. An elevator and new grain bin were leveled, and another bin was heavily damaged. Most of the building housing the fire department was demolished. Also, many houses and vehicles sustained damage, and large trees were uprooted or broken off. In one instance a steel beam was thrust through a garage and into the car inside. One mile north of Chester, an entire house was moved off the foundation. The town had to be evacuated for 19 hours after the tornado because the tornado damaged a 12,000-gallon ammonia tank releasing 4,000 gallons of the liquid gas into the air. The ammonia was a health hazard forcing residents out. To the south of Chester, the storm destroyed a new convenience store and blew two fuel tanks over 100 yards.

Observances:

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• 9 Sun
  International Day of the World's Indigenous People
• 9 Sun
  Annual Perseid Meteor Shower Peak Night
• 9 Sun
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• 9 Sun
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[Brian D]

A look at Greenland. Was checking out the mass changes, and it looks like the rate of loss has slowed a little since 2013. 2002-2012 had a loss that contributed ~8.5mm (0.33") of sea level rise. From 2013-2025 it slowed to ~6mm (0.24"). Also put together a yearly SMB since 2012. Just an interesting tidbit. 

[A-L-E-K]

It's so over