Summer 2026 Banter Thread

[A-L-E-K]

5 hours ago, Brian D said:

The CAD'y wagon will be around some this winter. Mid Dec, and especially a good part of Jan, and maybe a little in early n late Feb. That's how it's lookin to me. 

get ready to MAD

mild and damp

[BeastFromTheEast]

Wouldn’t be surprised if we get a curveball cold month or two this winter.
 

Ofc odds are def leaning towards mild and wet overall ala classic Nino and even just considering our recent trash winter climo regardless of ENSO conditions. 
 

However you can never discount a rando month or two where conditions set up perfectly on our side of the globe for cold/snow while Siberia and the oppo side torches. 
 

 

[Brian D]

5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

get ready to MAD

mild and damp

That's in the mix too. Don't get me wrong, but there will be CAD too. I mentioned this because we are expecting a very mild winter overall with a strong El Nino, but there is more to it than that with the other metrics that influence NA wx patterns. To much hyper focus on one metric. 

[A-L-E-K]

9 minutes ago, Brian D said:

That's in the mix too. Don't get me wrong, but there will be CAD too. I mentioned this because we are expecting a very mild winter overall with a strong El Nino, but there is more to it than that with the other metrics that influence NA wx patterns. To much hyper focus on one metric. 

Counterpoint: get ready to 1877

[Brian D]

August 7

1968: 7.09 inches of rain falls at Mankato. 1,200 homes are damaged. Highways 169 and 22 are blocked by mudslides.

 

1955: The climate record of George W. Richards of Maple Plain ends. He recorded weather data with lively notations on phenology and weather events. He began taking observations when he was eleven in 1883. He continued to take observations for 72 years, with 66 years as a National Weather Service Cooperator. (Note: Awesome dedication to daily wx.)

 

1896: The final day of a massive heat wave brings highs of 104 to Le Sueur and Mazeppa.

 

1863: A Forest City observer sees what he calls a 'perfect tornado.' He noted that it 'drove principally from west to east and lasted about one half hour.'

For Friday, August 7, 2026
1904 - A flash flood near Pueblo, CO, washed a train from the tracks killing 89 passengers. A bridge, weakened by the floodwaters sweeping through the valley below, gave way under the weight of the train dashing all but the sleeping cars into the torrent drowning the occupants. Rail service was frequently interrupted in the Rocky Mountain Region and southwestern U.S. that summer due to numerous heavy downpours which washed out the railroad beds delaying trains as much as five days. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
1918 - Philadelphia, PA, established an all-time record with a high of 106 degrees. New York City experienced its warmest day and night with a low of 82 degrees and a high of 102 degrees. Afternoon highs of 108 degrees at Flemington NJ and Somerville NJ established state records for the month of August. (The Weather Channel) (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)
1984 - El Paso, TX, normally receives 1.21 inches of rain in August. They got it in forty-five minutes, with four more inches to boot, during a storm which left Downtown El Paso under five feet of water. (The Weather Channel)
1986 - A rare outbreak of seven tornadoes occurred in New England. One tornado carved its way through Cranston RI and Providence RI causing twenty injuries. Rhode Island had not reported a tornado in twelve years, and three touched down in 24 hours. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
1987 - Morning thunderstorms drenched Goldsboro, NC, with 3.37 inches of rain. Late morning thunderstorms in Arizona produced dime size hail, wind gusts to 50 mph, and two inches of rain, at Sierra Vista. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1988 - A dozen cities in the central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Waco, TX, with a reading of 107 degrees. The record high of 88 degrees at Marquette, MI, was their twenty-third of the year. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in Nebraska, Minnesota and Wisconsin, with wind gusts to 81 mph reported at McCool, NE. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
1989 - Forty cities in the central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Valentine, NE, with a reading of 40 degrees, and Belcourt ND with a low of 37 degrees. Martin SD was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 30 degrees. Unseasonably hot weather prevailed over Florida and Washington State, with record highs of 100 degrees at Daytona Beach, FL, 101 degrees at Walla Walla, WA, and 103 degrees at Hanford, WA. (The National Weather Summary)

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[Brian D]

1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said:

Counterpoint: get ready to 1877

or 2023/24 in your humble opinion. That rivaled 1877/78 winter. To each his own, we'll see.  

[A-L-E-K]

 

 

[A-L-E-K]

 

 

[michsnowfreak]

22 hours ago, roardog said:

I think Christmas 1982 has given everyone the misconception that a strong Nino is likely to have these outrageously warm high temperatures in the winter. The majority of the winter warmth usually comes from mild overnight lows due to the lack of arctic airmasses causing a lot of cloudy, mild overnight lows from constant pacific airmasses. You want a "super Nina" if you want those really warm daytime highs.

This x10000.

The uniqueness of having record breaking warmth on Christmas Day, such as we had in 1982, helps it live on in memories of all who experienced it. Do you remember a random 60-65F day if it was on Dec 11th or Jan 10th? No. But if its on Dec 25th...yes. Also, that winter was extraordinarily snowless here, and bad luck certainly played a roll. After the December warmth, January/February had plenty of days cold enough for snow (tho they were both mild in the mean), it was just dry dry dry. 1982-83 was well on its way to all-time futility until a 7.3" snowstorm on the 1st day of spring, and another 3.4" snow in mid-April, screwed it. 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Counterpoint: get ready to 1877

1877-78 was certainly a mild winter region-wide, but the core of the anomalies were in the far upper midwest (ie: MN). Detroit had a 14.8" snowstorm on Jan 31st. Season snowfall totaled 43.4". December and March were very warm, but Jan/Feb only a bit milder than normal and with plenty of winter weather. 

Locally there were several shittier winters of that era. I wish someone would do a study on the insane weather patterns that gripped this region for nearly a decade worth of winters. The rubber band snap every other year was incredible, unlike anything in the climate record. But it was so long ago, its never mentioned. 8 straight winters from 1874-82, and each winter STILL resides in Detroits top 20 warm/cold winters on record.

1874-75: 2nd coldest
1875-76: 19th warmest
1876-77: 19th coldest
1877-78: 16th warmest
1878-79: 14th coldest
1879-80: 12th warmest
1880-81: 13th coldest
1881-82: 1st warmest
 

[nvck]

woke up to t'storms this morning, something like 500 strikes in a 5/10 mile radius around me. picked up about a half inch from that. rounds of showers started around 2 hours ago, not a ton of thunder, but up to 2" on the day so far. will probably pick up another 0.5" if we're lucky