Summer 2026 Med/Long Range Discussion

[cyclone77]

3 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Next week looks mighty toasty around here. 
 

Will we string together some upper 90s/low 100s or will the ridge end up further southeast like this past “heat wave” 

A couple of the op Euro runs flexed 100-105 degree heat in here later next week, but have since backed off.  Will likely end up with our usual 92-95 type of heat with high dews.

[cyclone77]

Looks like a snooze fest through late July.  Glad we had our good rains in the first week of the month.

[A-L-E-K]

feast or famine has been the way of the land for what feels like years now but yeah, glad we soaked it up while the getting was good

[roardog]

Maybe the lower dewpoint heat next week will actually bring some high temperatures that don’t underperform for a change. 

[A-L-E-K]

euro and gfs miles apart in the extended, gfs not buying torch 2.0

[roardog]

3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

euro and gfs miles apart in the extended, gfs not buying torch 2.0

I know you like the lake effect rain the 12Z Op GFS has for you today at 240 hours.

[A-L-E-K]

euro moved to the GFS p big around this time frame, shifting axis west and death ridging CA

looks like a potentially extended period of seasonably comfortable temps for most of us

[Brian D]

Looks like possible hot wx starting this weekend. Winds are forecast to be SW, and if so, then it will get rather warm, even here imby. Shoreline will stay a little cooler unless the wind is WSW. SW winds along the shoreline clip the Lake, but a slight W direction keeps it a fully land breeze. Down sloping may jump temps even higher than forecast. 

[A-L-E-K]

Euro dry af over n il, summer doldrums incoming 

[A-L-E-K]

On 7/11/2026 at 4:54 AM, A-L-E-K said:

Euro dry af over n il, summer doldrums incoming 

not much has changed on this front

[A-L-E-K]

zzzzzzzzzzzz

[A-L-E-K]

problematic

[Stebo]

20 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

problematic

Not a good look, the GFS thankfully isn't as bad.

[CHItoMKE916]

Milwaukee going to have the record dryest July. Can't say the same about drinking.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

problematic

At least the monsoon is showing up in Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico

[BeastFromTheEast]

20 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

At least the monsoon is showing up in Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico

Canada looks wet too, might be a good thing wrt wildfire smoke. 

[sbnwx85]

Was skeptical of StormNet at first because it’s very AI driven but it’s done a damn good job. Something to watch for Monday.

[SchaumburgStormer]

6 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

problematic

[A-L-E-K]

On 7/22/2026 at 3:22 PM, OrdIowPitMsp said:

At least the monsoon is showing up in Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico

my understanding of the western water situation and the colorado river, is that it's a long slow release from heavy winter snowmelt or nothing. At best, a heavy monsoon season might provide some local relief to immediate fire susceptibility but it won't do anything for the river/water scarcity issue and the lightning will certainly start new fires considering the degraded state of the forests out there thanks to the beetles and successive mega droughts

[OrdIowPitMsp]

9 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

my understanding of the western water situation and the colorado river, is that it's a long slow release from heavy winter snowmelt or northing. At best, a heavy monsoon season might provide some local relief to immediate fire susceptibility but it won't do anything for the river/water scarcity issue and the lightning will certainly start new fires considering the degraded state of the forests out there thanks to the beetles and successive mega droughts

Yeah it’s snowpack or nothing for them as my understanding goes too. I was strictly referring to the fire situation.