Late May/June 2026 Medium/Long Range

[JenkinsJinkies]

There's talk of an potential upcoming pattern change in the Philadelphia forum, since we're adjacent to them it could bode well for us too.

[frd]

[IronTy]

Not enough attention is being paid to the spreading cold blob in the North Atlantic.  What it means for us, I don't know.  But fear not, I have my eye on it.  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^Finally getting that El Nino below average temps around the Great Lakes

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Not enough attention is being paid to the spreading cold blob in the North Atlantic.  What it means for us, I don't know.  But fear not, I have my eye on it.  

It does correlate with following Winter NAO. Right now the Atlantic SST index is slightly negative

Here is what you're looking for (default of map is positive phase, with both sides considered)

Notice the Atlantic tripole. That's a high correlation for SSTA.

[frd]

14 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It does correlate with following Winter NAO. Right now the Atlantic SST index is slightly negative

Here is what you're looking for (default of map is positive phase, with both sides considered)

Notice the Atlantic tripole. That's a high correlation for SSTA.

Winter 26-27 with averaged - NAO .

Also. Appears a weakened or displaced PV

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

Winter 26-27 with averaged - NAO .

Also. Appears a weakened or displaced PV

I would love a -NAO with Super Nino STJ. Unfortunately, something like 14 Winters in a row have been +NAO (CPC). AO going negative has been easier to achieve. We will also likely have strong +QBO which strengthens the Stratosphere PV. 

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It does correlate with following Winter NAO. Right now the Atlantic SST index is slightly negative

Here is what you're looking for (default of map is positive phase, with both sides considered)

Notice the Atlantic tripole. That's a high correlation for SSTA.

What exactly am I looking at here?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, IronTy said:

What exactly am I looking at here?

Correlation between May-Sept SSTA and Nov-March NAO. 

Edit: I actually have it in reverse, I should have done lag instead of lead. Here's the +3-6 month correlation:

This means that for a Winter -NAO you want cold water in that pool south of New Foundland

[Stormchaserchuck1]

CPC going with some Summer heat leading up to July 4

[frd]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I would love a -NAO with Super Nino STJ. Unfortunately, something like 14 Winters in a row have been +NAO (CPC). AO going negative has been easier to achieve. We will also likely have strong +QBO which strengthens the Stratosphere PV. 

There were times in the past that had major PV disruptions during a  El Niño / +QBO combinations. They tended to ocur in later winter versus early in December to Jan. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, frd said:

There were times in the past that had major PV disruptions during a  El Niño / +QBO combinations. They tended to ocur in later winter versus early in December to Jan. 

Yeah, El Nino generally favors warm Stratosphere. El Nino/-QBO is what you really want, 23-24 had 4 separate Stratosphere warmings. I know it didn't correlate highly to the NAO that Winter, but the combo can produce, 09-10 was El Nino/-QBO.  

[frd]

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Pretty above average temps Jun 30 - July 6 on 12z EPS

[frd]

57 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Pretty above average temps Jun 30 - July 6 on 12z EPS

Up and down pattern continues 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Check out how Nino 1+2 being warm (+2.8c) is hitting +correlation in the Rockies in the medium range.. means you might have to give warm Nino 1+2 analogs credence going forward

The Rockies in the Summer recently have almost never seen that kind of cold. That's vs the 81-10 average 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z Euro for the weekend....

[Weather Will]

WB 7 day EPS precip. Anomaly: been awhile....

[frd]

https://x.com/commoditywx/status/2069101636929142827

 

Eastern heat ridge next week begins to retrograde west and north by holiday weekend, favoring cooler East for July 6th workweek.

 

 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EPS 72 hours ending Day 6.

[frd]

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EPS 72 hours ending Day 6.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
110 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

KEY MESSAGE 2...Another cold front is expected to approach the
region late this week, bringing more chances for showers and
storms.

Another cold front is expected to approach our region late in
the week (likely crossing through our region Friday into
Saturday). More showers/storms are likely beginning as early as
late day Thursday and then continuing Friday.  Southwesterly
flow ahead of the front should allow for plenty of moisture
advection ahead of the rain chances. However with the best
forcing more centered north of the region, that could limit how
widespread significant rain is with this event. As for what
hazards to expect with this event, that will be highly dependent
on the timing of the showers and storms, which is still
uncertain.

The front may linger nearby next weekend and if this occurs it
would keep chances for shower/storms going, especially in the
afternoon/evening hours. There is uncertainty regarding this
though.

[EastCoast NPZ]

22 hours ago, frd said:

https://x.com/commoditywx/status/2069101636929142827

 

Eastern heat ridge next week begins to retrograde west and north by holiday weekend, favoring cooler East for July 6th workweek.

 

 

Of course it does, just in time for me to head out west. 

[JakkelWx]

22 hours ago, frd said:

https://x.com/commoditywx/status/2069101636929142827

 

Eastern heat ridge next week begins to retrograde west and north by holiday weekend, favoring cooler East for July 6th workweek.

 

 

Translation: it'll still be very humid but the temp will be 90 instead of 100.

[frd]

44 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Translation: it'll still be very humid but the temp will be 90 instead of 100.

Ha ha so true! 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS for Friday/Saturday. Perhaps some more beneficial rain....