Late May/June 2026 Medium/Long Range

[JenkinsJinkies]

There's talk of an potential upcoming pattern change in the Philadelphia forum, since we're adjacent to them it could bode well for us too.

[frd]

[IronTy]

Not enough attention is being paid to the spreading cold blob in the North Atlantic.  What it means for us, I don't know.  But fear not, I have my eye on it.  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^Finally getting that El Nino below average temps around the Great Lakes

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Not enough attention is being paid to the spreading cold blob in the North Atlantic.  What it means for us, I don't know.  But fear not, I have my eye on it.  

It does correlate with following Winter NAO. Right now the Atlantic SST index is slightly negative

Here is what you're looking for (default of map is positive phase, with both sides considered)

Notice the Atlantic tripole. That's a high correlation for SSTA.

[frd]

14 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It does correlate with following Winter NAO. Right now the Atlantic SST index is slightly negative

Here is what you're looking for (default of map is positive phase, with both sides considered)

Notice the Atlantic tripole. That's a high correlation for SSTA.

Winter 26-27 with averaged - NAO .

Also. Appears a weakened or displaced PV

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

Winter 26-27 with averaged - NAO .

Also. Appears a weakened or displaced PV

I would love a -NAO with Super Nino STJ. Unfortunately, something like 14 Winters in a row have been +NAO (CPC). AO going negative has been easier to achieve. We will also likely have strong +QBO which strengthens the Stratosphere PV. 

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It does correlate with following Winter NAO. Right now the Atlantic SST index is slightly negative

Here is what you're looking for (default of map is positive phase, with both sides considered)

Notice the Atlantic tripole. That's a high correlation for SSTA.

What exactly am I looking at here?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, IronTy said:

What exactly am I looking at here?

Correlation between May-Sept SSTA and Nov-March NAO. 

Edit: I actually have it in reverse, I should have done lag instead of lead. Here's the +3-6 month correlation:

This means that for a Winter -NAO you want cold water in that pool south of New Foundland

[Stormchaserchuck1]

CPC going with some Summer heat leading up to July 4

[frd]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I would love a -NAO with Super Nino STJ. Unfortunately, something like 14 Winters in a row have been +NAO (CPC). AO going negative has been easier to achieve. We will also likely have strong +QBO which strengthens the Stratosphere PV. 

There were times in the past that had major PV disruptions during a  El Niño / +QBO combinations. They tended to ocur in later winter versus early in December to Jan. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just now, frd said:

There were times in the past that had major PV disruptions during a  El Niño / +QBO combinations. They tended to ocur in later winter versus early in December to Jan. 

Yeah, El Nino generally favors warm Stratosphere. El Nino/-QBO is what you really want, 23-24 had 4 separate Stratosphere warmings. I know it didn't correlate highly to the NAO that Winter, but the combo can produce, 09-10 was El Nino/-QBO.