WxWatcher007 Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 CSU is out with its first forecast for the upcoming season, which will be here before you know it. With a Super Niño on the table and the current SST distribution in the Atlantic, I’m strongly bearish on the upcoming season. Last season was the first in quite sometime without a major U.S. landfall. We will see if there is a chase opportunity this year. I take the under currently with the NS and H projections above. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 WB 18Z GFS at range. GOOFUS is off to an early start in the tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 21 Author Share Posted May 21 No surprise 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 Given the last couple years its been bleak so yeah, no surprise. EC canes dont exist anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 22 Author Share Posted May 22 10 hours ago, H2O said: Given the last couple years its been bleak so yeah, no surprise. EC canes dont exist anymore. Last season was so crazy. I had my hotel and flight booked for SC after it looked like a strike was coming and then the models completely flipped lol. First window for activity may be around mid-June if the MJO goes favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 If this Niño is like the 2015-16 one then we could get tropical remnants from a hurricane that hit Mexico's pacific coast sometime in October. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 30 Author Share Posted May 30 Still thinking mid-June has a chance for tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 1 Author Share Posted June 1 And we’re off… 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 6 Author Share Posted June 6 The signal for development around mid-month has been mixed on the operational and ensemble guidance, but it looks more and more like a CAG will set up and give the chance for some development in the Gulf. Today's GFS, which probably isn't right, would be fun all the way up the coast haha. Drought buster. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: The signal for development around mid-month has been mixed on the operational and ensemble guidance, but it looks more and more like a CAG will set up and give the chance for some development in the Gulf. Today's GFS, which probably isn't right, would be fun all the way up the coast haha. Drought buster. Gimme dat 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 6 Author Share Posted June 6 6 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Gimme dat 18z doubled down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: 18z doubled down D10 tropical only on the gfs. I see no possible way this fails. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 7 Author Share Posted June 7 5 hours ago, WxUSAF said: D10 tropical only on the gfs. I see no possible way this fails. True but the ensembles have a strong signal for some sort of genesis inside of ten days. AI less so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 10 Author Share Posted June 10 First lemon of the season in the BoC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Thursday at 05:30 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:30 PM https://x.com/RyanWeather/status/2064837035706163334 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted Friday at 03:00 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:00 PM On 6/10/2026 at 9:38 AM, WxWatcher007 said: First lemon of the season in the BoC. Your lemon is now a banana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted Friday at 03:27 PM Share Posted Friday at 03:27 PM 27 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Your lemon is now a banana. Tell me more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Friday at 04:05 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 04:05 PM Time for the first analysis of the 2026 season. As @nw baltimore wx notes, our area of interest, which was the first lemon of the season deep in the Bay of Campeche, is now a banana, which scrapes the western Gulf. 1. Western Gulf: A broad area of low pressure has formed over the far southern Bay of Campeche and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be only marginally conducive for development before the system moves inland over eastern Mexico late Saturday or Sunday. The system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf on Tuesday and Wednesday while interacting with a frontal boundary, but there too, conditions are only expected to be marginally conducive for any development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. You can see below that we have a broad area of spin, and in the Bay of Campeche, where the concave nature of the coastline allows for consolidation of vorticity, this may be a favorable factor that's now being picked up by the AI models--which have frankly outperformed the legacy models recently. Aside from being buried currently in the geographically favorable BoC, the conditions for tropical genesis look marginal. SSTs are fine, but they're marginal. Nothing too surprising for this time of year. Wind shear currently isn't an issue, but upper level winds do not look favorable outside of a small window, with a huge ribbon of high shear across the Gulf and through the Caribbean and Atlantic. That said, you don't need much for marginal development this time of year, and while the legacy models (GFS/Euro and their ensembles) were bullish earlier on central/eastern Gulf development that ended up being wrong, with AI so far winning out on the possible zone of development. While the legacy ensembles quickly bury this broad low in Mexico and crucially--keep it there. The AI models pick up the low before it gets too far inland. That keeps the window open for development as it curves around the western Gulf. Note the difference between the EPS and AI EPS! Google DeepMind, which I believe performed the best in highlighting tropical genesis signals last season, is starting to show more interest in this idea as well. This one has a chance for some marginal development, if it can stay offshore for an extended period of time. Either way, this continues to highlight the signal I've mentioned before for heavy rain in the southeast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Monday at 05:51 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 05:51 PM Flash flooding along the Gulf coast as odds increase… Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Northwestern Gulf of America: A trough of low pressure located over northeastern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development is not expected during the next day or so while the trough remains inland. However, the system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America late Tuesday or Wednesday, and environmental conditions there are marginally conducive for the formation of a short-lived tropical storm on Wednesday into Thursday. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across southern and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days which could produce widespread, life-threatening flash, urban, and river flooding. Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required on Tuesday. Additional information on this system can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office or NHC Key Messages. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 10 hours ago Author Share Posted 10 hours ago Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026 1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 The center of the system is beginning to emerge into the northwestern Gulf. Surface observations do not show very strong winds over the area at this time, and the current intensity is held at 25 kt. This is consistent with a Dvorak classification from TAFB. There is significant westerly vertical wind shear over the disturbance, with most of the deep convection displaced well away from the center of the low. Given that there has been no noticeable increase in the deep convective organization of the disturbance, it is being maintained as a potential tropical cyclone for this advisory. Based on the center fixes, the initial motion estimate, 050/5 kt, is similar to that from the previous advisory. There has been little change in the track model guidance. The system is expected to accelerate northeastward in the flow on the southern and southwestern side of a broad mid-level trough over the eastern United States. The official forecast track shows the disturbance or storm moving just offshore of, and parallel to, the Texas coast during the next day or so. Then the system is likely to go back onshore late Wednesday or Wednesday night. No significant change has been made to the track forecast for this advisory, and the official forecast is fairly close to the corrected consensus solution. The center should move far enough offshore on Wednesday for some intensification to occur due to a combination of warm Gulf waters and upper-level divergence. However the SHIPS guidance diagnoses fairly strong shear over the area during the next 24-36 hours which should limit strengthening up to landfall. The NHC forecast continues to indicate the system becoming a tropical storm tomorrow, which is also shown in the IVCN intensity model consensus. Regardless of whether the system becomes a tropical cyclone, heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding will be the primary hazards with this system. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding is likely through Thursday across Louisiana and southern Mississippi, and is possible near the Upper Texas coast. Flash flooding is also possible across Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle through the end of the week. Prolonged rainfall may extend the flood threat into the weekend. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected along the Louisiana coast on Wednesday from Sabine Pass to Morgan City where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 27.6N 97.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 17/1200Z 28.5N 95.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 18/0000Z 30.2N 93.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/1200Z 32.1N 90.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 48H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch/Adams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted 58 minutes ago Share Posted 58 minutes ago Would love for any of this moisture to be funneled up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 3 minutes ago Author Share Posted 3 minutes ago On 5/30/2026 at 12:36 PM, WxWatcher007 said: Still thinking mid-June has a chance for tropical. Tropical Storm Arthur Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026 The low pressure area near the Middle Texas coast has produced sustained convection well to the east of its center this morning. A 1200 UTC TAFB Dvorak classification indicated enough convective organization to designate the system as a sheared tropical cyclone. Within the past hour or two, buoy observations and a ship report have indicated tropical-storm-force winds occurring within this convection. Additionally, Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters investigating the storm found peak 850-mb flight-level winds up to 52 kt, which also suggest this system has reached tropical storm intensity. Based on these findings, the system is designated as Tropical Storm Arthur with an intensity of 35 kt. Arthur is starting to accelerate northeastward (045/8 kt) within strengthening southwesterly flow associated with a low- to mid-level trough. There are no significant changes to the track forecast reasoning, with a faster northeastward motion expected today that will move the center of the system along or over the Texas coast today and then farther inland over southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana by tonight. With no major changes to the track guidance this cycle, the updated NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one. Given the unrelenting westerly shear and Arthur's close proximity to land, it seems unlikely that much additional strengthening will occur. The tropical-storm-force winds are confined to the eastern semicircle and mainly occurring over the offshore waters. Arthur will likely maintain its intensity while it remains over water, and then weaken by tonight once it moves inland. Global model fields indicate it will open into a trough soon thereafter, and although a 24-h forecast point is included mainly for continuity purposes, Arthur should dissipate before that time. There is still a signal in the global models for low pressure development over the western Atlantic late this week or this weekend as remnant vorticity from Arthur emerge off the Southeast U.S. coast. The exact nature of this low remains unclear, so we will continue to monitor model trends to evaluate the potential for tropical cyclone formation. Heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding remain the primary hazard with this system. Based on recent observations, the Tropical Storm Warning has been extended westward along the Upper Texas coast to High Island. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Potentially life-threatening flash flooding and urban flooding are likely through Friday across southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, southwestern Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle, with possible flooding near the Upper Texas coast. Ongoing heavy rainfall could prolong the flood threat into the weekend. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected along the Upper Texas and Louisiana coasts today from High Island to Morgan City where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 28.6N 95.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 30.0N 94.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/1200Z 31.9N 91.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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