WxWatcher007 Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 CSU is out with its first forecast for the upcoming season, which will be here before you know it. With a Super Niño on the table and the current SST distribution in the Atlantic, I’m strongly bearish on the upcoming season. Last season was the first in quite sometime without a major U.S. landfall. We will see if there is a chase opportunity this year. I take the under currently with the NS and H projections above. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted May 6 Share Posted May 6 WB 18Z GFS at range. GOOFUS is off to an early start in the tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 21 Author Share Posted May 21 No surprise 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 Given the last couple years its been bleak so yeah, no surprise. EC canes dont exist anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 22 Author Share Posted May 22 10 hours ago, H2O said: Given the last couple years its been bleak so yeah, no surprise. EC canes dont exist anymore. Last season was so crazy. I had my hotel and flight booked for SC after it looked like a strike was coming and then the models completely flipped lol. First window for activity may be around mid-June if the MJO goes favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted May 22 Share Posted May 22 If this Niño is like the 2015-16 one then we could get tropical remnants from a hurricane that hit Mexico's pacific coast sometime in October. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 30 Author Share Posted May 30 Still thinking mid-June has a chance for tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 1 Author Share Posted June 1 And we’re off… 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 6 Author Share Posted June 6 The signal for development around mid-month has been mixed on the operational and ensemble guidance, but it looks more and more like a CAG will set up and give the chance for some development in the Gulf. Today's GFS, which probably isn't right, would be fun all the way up the coast haha. Drought buster. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: The signal for development around mid-month has been mixed on the operational and ensemble guidance, but it looks more and more like a CAG will set up and give the chance for some development in the Gulf. Today's GFS, which probably isn't right, would be fun all the way up the coast haha. Drought buster. Gimme dat 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Saturday at 11:34 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 11:34 PM 6 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Gimme dat 18z doubled down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Saturday at 11:39 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:39 PM 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: 18z doubled down D10 tropical only on the gfs. I see no possible way this fails. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Sunday at 04:52 AM Author Share Posted Sunday at 04:52 AM 5 hours ago, WxUSAF said: D10 tropical only on the gfs. I see no possible way this fails. True but the ensembles have a strong signal for some sort of genesis inside of ten days. AI less so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Wednesday at 01:38 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 01:38 PM First lemon of the season in the BoC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted yesterday at 05:30 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:30 PM https://x.com/RyanWeather/status/2064837035706163334 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago On 6/10/2026 at 9:38 AM, WxWatcher007 said: First lemon of the season in the BoC. Your lemon is now a banana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 27 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Your lemon is now a banana. Tell me more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago Time for the first analysis of the 2026 season. As @nw baltimore wx notes, our area of interest, which was the first lemon of the season deep in the Bay of Campeche, is now a banana, which scrapes the western Gulf. 1. Western Gulf: A broad area of low pressure has formed over the far southern Bay of Campeche and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be only marginally conducive for development before the system moves inland over eastern Mexico late Saturday or Sunday. The system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf on Tuesday and Wednesday while interacting with a frontal boundary, but there too, conditions are only expected to be marginally conducive for any development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. You can see below that we have a broad area of spin, and in the Bay of Campeche, where the concave nature of the coastline allows for consolidation of vorticity, this may be a favorable factor that's now being picked up by the AI models--which have frankly outperformed the legacy models recently. Aside from being buried currently in the geographically favorable BoC, the conditions for tropical genesis look marginal. SSTs are fine, but they're marginal. Nothing too surprising for this time of year. Wind shear currently isn't an issue, but upper level winds do not look favorable outside of a small window, with a huge ribbon of high shear across the Gulf and through the Caribbean and Atlantic. That said, you don't need much for marginal development this time of year, and while the legacy models (GFS/Euro and their ensembles) were bullish earlier on central/eastern Gulf development that ended up being wrong, with AI so far winning out on the possible zone of development. While the legacy ensembles quickly bury this broad low in Mexico and crucially--keep it there. The AI models pick up the low before it gets too far inland. That keeps the window open for development as it curves around the western Gulf. Note the difference between the EPS and AI EPS! Google DeepMind, which I believe performed the best in highlighting tropical genesis signals last season, is starting to show more interest in this idea as well. This one has a chance for some marginal development, if it can stay offshore for an extended period of time. Either way, this continues to highlight the signal I've mentioned before for heavy rain in the southeast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now