2026 Tropical Tracking Thread

[WxWatcher007]

CSU is out with its first forecast for the upcoming season, which will be here before you know it. With a Super Niño on the table and the current SST distribution in the Atlantic, I’m strongly bearish on the upcoming season. Last season was the first in quite sometime without a major U.S. landfall. We will see if there is a chase opportunity this year.
 

I take the under currently with the NS and H projections above. 

[frd]

 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS at range.  GOOFUS is off to an early start in the tropics.

[WxWatcher007]

No surprise 

 

[H2O]

Given the last couple years its been bleak so yeah, no surprise.  EC canes dont exist anymore.  

[WxWatcher007]

10 hours ago, H2O said:

Given the last couple years its been bleak so yeah, no surprise.  EC canes dont exist anymore.  

Last season was so crazy. I had my hotel and flight booked for SC after it looked like a strike was coming and then the models completely flipped lol.

First window for activity may be around mid-June if the MJO goes favorable.

[JenkinsJinkies]

If this Niño is like the 2015-16 one then we could get tropical remnants from a hurricane that hit Mexico's pacific coast sometime in October.

[WxWatcher007]

Still thinking mid-June has a chance for tropical. 

[WxWatcher007]

And we’re off…

[WxWatcher007]

The signal for development around mid-month has been mixed on the operational and ensemble guidance, but it looks more and more like a CAG will set up and give the chance for some development in the Gulf. Today's GFS, which probably isn't right, would be fun all the way up the coast haha. Drought buster. 

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The signal for development around mid-month has been mixed on the operational and ensemble guidance, but it looks more and more like a CAG will set up and give the chance for some development in the Gulf. Today's GFS, which probably isn't right, would be fun all the way up the coast haha. Drought buster. 

Gimme dat 

[WxWatcher007]

6 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Gimme dat 

18z doubled down 

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

18z doubled down 

D10 tropical only on the gfs. I see no possible way this fails.

[WxWatcher007]

5 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

D10 tropical only on the gfs. I see no possible way this fails.

True but the ensembles have a strong signal for some sort of genesis inside of ten days. AI less so.

[WxWatcher007]

First lemon of the season in the BoC.

[frd]

 

https://x.com/RyanWeather/status/2064837035706163334

 

 

 

[nw baltimore wx]

On 6/10/2026 at 9:38 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

First lemon of the season in the BoC.

Your lemon is now a banana.

[ravensrule]

27 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Your lemon is now a banana.

Tell me more. 

[WxWatcher007]

Time for the first analysis of the 2026 season. 

As @nw baltimore wx notes, our area of interest, which was the first lemon of the season deep in the Bay of Campeche, is now a banana, which scrapes the western Gulf. 

1. Western Gulf:
A broad area of low pressure has formed over the far southern Bay 
of Campeche and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
Environmental conditions are forecast to be only marginally 
conducive for development before the system moves inland over 
eastern Mexico late Saturday or Sunday.  The system could re-emerge 
over the northwestern Gulf on Tuesday and Wednesday while 
interacting with a frontal boundary, but there too, conditions are 
only expected to be marginally conducive for any development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

You can see below that we have a broad area of spin, and in the Bay of Campeche, where the concave nature of the coastline allows for consolidation of vorticity, this may be a favorable factor that's now being picked up by the AI models--which have frankly outperformed the legacy models recently. 

Aside from being buried currently in the geographically favorable BoC, the conditions for tropical genesis look marginal. 

SSTs are fine, but they're marginal. Nothing too surprising for this time of year. 

 

Wind shear currently isn't an issue, but upper level winds do not look favorable outside of a small window, with a huge ribbon of high shear across the Gulf and through the Caribbean and Atlantic.

 

That said, you don't need much for marginal development this time of year, and while the legacy models (GFS/Euro and their ensembles) were bullish earlier on central/eastern Gulf development that ended up being wrong, with AI so far winning out on the possible zone of development. 

While the legacy ensembles quickly bury this broad low in Mexico and crucially--keep it there.

 

The AI models pick up the low before it gets too far inland. That keeps the window open for development as it curves around the western Gulf. Note the difference between the EPS and AI EPS!

 

Google DeepMind, which I believe performed the best in highlighting tropical genesis signals last season, is starting to show more interest in this idea as well. 

 

This one has a chance for some marginal development, if it can stay offshore for an extended period of time. Either way, this continues to highlight the signal I've mentioned before for heavy rain in the southeast.