chubbs Posted August 4 Share Posted August 4 https://dashboard.theclimatebrink.com/#global Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted August 11 Share Posted August 11 On 8/4/2026 at 4:45 AM, chubbs said: https://dashboard.theclimatebrink.com/#global Using 1850 as a start point minimizes the damage. The global temperature trend goes downward until about 1917. If we used that as a start point, then the rise would be closer to +2C in ~110 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 11 Author Share Posted August 11 22 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: Using 1850 as a start point minimizes the damage. The global temperature trend goes downward until about 1917. If we used that as a start point, then the rise would be closer to +2C in ~110 years. Yeah ... agreed. And the period since 1917? it so vastly dwarfs the 1850 to 1917 interval, the period after is too gorgeously obvious (and probably damning implication) to ignore. The point there is that something ( to remain nameless...) enormous must not just be forcing, but doing so massively. In geological time framing ( no less...), to impose that much acceleration, changing of the previous (1850) dynamic state at a planetary scale - You know, I keep coming back to this notion that humanity isn't terrified by this because it's so huge they can't dimensionalize the monster - so to speak. It is not helping that as a species, we are too constrained to what threats we can readily see, hear, taste, touch, and smell. If it is not directly perceivable we seem to evade detection of what we don't want to acknowledge - duh. I don't know if the person you're talking to is doing this, per se...just sayn'. Human kind needs to see an actual fire wall coming over the horizon, else it's like being scared in a movie theater. It's ephemeral because the solution is to leave the theater. The horror story stops. No longer real. If a 'threat' doesn't appeal to the senses directly, the abstraction of it seems to land psychologically in a similar way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted August 12 Share Posted August 12 July was a record for GISS 1.23 vs 1.20 in 2024. NOAA's July tied 2024. First of many monthly records over the next year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 14 Author Share Posted August 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 17 Author Share Posted August 17 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 17 Share Posted August 17 Climatologist49 @climatologist49.bsky.social Follow The first 14 days of August have blasted through the previous record for the Aug 1-14 period globally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted August 19 Share Posted August 19 On 8/17/2026 at 11:11 AM, bluewave said: Climatologist49 @climatologist49.bsky.social Follow The first 14 days of August have blasted through the previous record for the Aug 1-14 period globally. In El Nino mode. 2026 started #5 in GISS in Jan and Feb, but reached #1 in July. August on track to easily top 2024. Can expect monthly records well into until 2027. The one exception is Sept, the "gobsmacking" warmth of 2023 will be tough to beat. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Wednesday at 07:00 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 07:00 PM The August global t mean appears to be moving the wrong direction ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted Wednesday at 07:35 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:35 PM we didn't even try Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted Wednesday at 10:24 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:24 PM 2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: we didn't even try go to the first page of this subforum and flip through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted Wednesday at 10:37 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:37 PM 11 minutes ago, forkyfork said: go to the first page of this subforum and flip through You say that amwx currently is a denier board but from flipping back it looks like denialism used to be a much greater issue here. Now the worst we’ve got is one dude thinking his county deserves an entire thread and a smattering of New England posters who quickly get shut down with actual info. Progress! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted Thursday at 01:25 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:25 PM The first 20 days of August have been the warmest on record globally on the ERA-5 dataset. Powered by fossil fuel-driven climate change and an ongoing strong El Niño, 2026 has now set 11 consecutive records. 2026 needs to average 16.578°C for the remainder of August to surpass the 2024 record. That appears very likely given the latest guidance. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted Thursday at 02:42 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:42 PM On 8/19/2026 at 6:06 AM, chubbs said: In El Nino mode. 2026 started #5 in GISS in Jan and Feb, but reached #1 in July. August on track to easily top 2024. Can expect monthly records well into until 2027. The one exception is Sept, the "gobsmacking" warmth of 2023 will be tough to beat. Looks like August is currently tracking near the higher end of the range close to the ECMWF SEAS5 forecast from the 1st. https://celsius.earth/predict Aug 2026 MEDIAN 1.50 90% RANGE 1.34-1.66 SEAS5 DIRECT 1.66 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted Thursday at 05:14 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:14 PM Here's Zeke H latest forecasts (updated daily). An August record is almost guaranteed, while a record for 2026 is currently a coin flip. Monthly and yearly record odds have both been increasing as the month continues to run warm. https://dashboard.theclimatebrink.com/#global Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Thursday at 05:51 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 05:51 PM 28 minutes ago, chubbs said: Here's Zeke H latest forecasts (updated daily). An August record is almost guaranteed, while a record for 2026 is currently a coin flip. Monthly and yearly record odds have both been increasing as the month continues to run warm. https://dashboard.theclimatebrink.com/#global the s. hemisphere the tropics are lewd while the antarctic itself has a scary trend line originating over the last 1.5 months. It'll likely correct down some - we hope. The scalar value at the end of that rust curve is ~ 4th or 5th overall, to date. You don't wanna see early positive anomaly investments of that look before their annual recover is set to get going, in about a 3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted Thursday at 05:55 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:55 PM No reason to think this train pauses before printing some 1.8-2.0 months. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago The rise in global temperature anomalies that began in June continues through the end of August in this gfs-based forecast. August will easily break the previous August record and is tracking as the fourth highest monthly anomaly in any month on this metric, fifth highest on ERA. End of the month readings are near the peak monthly value for this metric, 1.04 in November 2023. Note that anomalies are usually highest in the colder months. We'll see what September brings. http://www.karstenhaustein.com/climate.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 55 minutes ago Author Share Posted 55 minutes ago 1 hour ago, chubbs said: The rise in global temperature anomalies that began in June continues through the end of August in this gfs-based forecast. August will easily break the previous August record and is tracking as the fourth highest monthly anomaly in any month on this metric, fifth highest on ERA. End of the month readings are near the peak monthly value for this metric, 1.04 in November 2023. Note that anomalies are usually highest in the colder months. We'll see what September brings. http://www.karstenhaustein.com/climate.php Climate Reanalyzer has us currently warmer than any other august, ever ... Not sure what-how to reconcile these two products - I'll leave that y'all... but it looks like it confirms that idea about Aug. Not sure about 'all months' tho - this below looks like the current month is running along 2nd in that scope. As an aside, also defiant of the fact that all years are typically descending by now. zoink Fwiw, this product includes 1940 - 2026/present Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now