Winter 2026-2027 Speculation

[FXWX]

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

If we get some sustained -AO periods, I think we'll have some good chances for big events....I'm def favoring a warm winter, but we know El Ninos can also be really schizophrenic....you could have obscene warmth for 3-4 weeks and then get pummeled for 2-3 weeks too (this happened in the '82-'83 winter). 

I think the best hope for big snow this winter will be to get into a super juiced Nino pattern while we have a favorable AO....and then you end up cleaning up for a 3 week period. 

Agree, and think there is decent multi modeling suggestions that we will see several periods when +PNA / - AO will work in tandem with a juiced up El Nino to present us with some big potential.  Wall to wall snow cover? NO! Above normal Temp? YES... But solid opportunities for disruptive snow periods.

[klw]

10 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I have read (from semi-reliable sources) that the very high arctic...above 80N....has been freakishly cold this summer.

What's up with that?  Is it a super +AO?

Reading the Neven Sea Ice Board there has been a low entrenched over the pole most of the sun keeping warmth and sun at bay.

[MJO812]

11 hours ago, forkyfork said:

warm and rainy

Another screenshot

[stadiumwave]

Interesting that the JMA 3 mth updated, it goes out to NOV. Its already showing the Canadian ridge in place which is ahead of schedule. 

 

Paul Roundy posted last week that one of his tools has the Candian ridge in early DEC similar to 1997. It is possible, some interest in DEC may develop early then fade. Can we get any cold air at that point is the big question. Paul's tool suggest block further west in Canada early. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, stadiumwave said:

Interesting that the JMA 3 mth updated, it goes out to NOV. Its already showing the Canadian ridge in place which is ahead of schedule. 

 

Paul Roundy posted last week that one of his tools has the Candian ridge in early DEC similar to 1997. It is possible, some interest in DEC may develop early then fade. Can we get any cold air at that point is the big question. Paul's tool suggest block further west in Canada early. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

19 hours ago, FXWX said:

Agree, and think there is decent multi modeling suggestions that we will see several periods when +PNA / - AO will work in tandem with a juiced up El Nino to present us with some big potential.  Wall to wall snow cover? NO! Above normal Temp? YES... But solid opportunities for disruptive snow periods.

Mmm