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Napril 2026 Discussion/Obs

Torch Tiger

By Torch Tiger,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Wednesday could be socked in with clouds, though could be some potential to get some breaks in 

I doubt it...  

The continent is too dry.  The flow is WSW under that polar boundary transporting a kinetically charged well mixed layer originating from the west TX high country.  Good luck.   If we are safely in that warm conveyor like the GFS?  not much cloud.   That's a red flag warning scenario there this early and prior to our own geographical green up. 

Even if the RH sigmas are juicier ( 800 to 300 mb levels) I'd personally lean on that being dryer verifying.

 

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dendrite
dendrite

Bro calm down. They’ll have more boston cream tomorrow.  

HoarfrostHubb
HoarfrostHubb

Somewhere on Wachusett today 

Supernovice
Supernovice

for those of us with a jet stream fetish…might make it supersonic lol

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I doubt it...  

The continent is too dry.  The flow is WSW under that polar boundary transporting a kinetically charged well mixed layer originating from the west TX high country.  Good luck.   If we are safely in that warm conveyor like the GFS?  not much cloud.   That's a red flag warning scenario there this early and prior to our own geographical green up. 

Even if the RH sigmas are juicier ( 800 to 300 mb levels) I'd personally lean on that being dryer verifying.

 

I agree with that, however, I think what we'd have to watch for is cloud cover from upstream precipitation/convection...though perhaps shear vectors favor us avoiding this mess.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

how much did you wind up with ?

I bet with high sun shining on snow, the dry wet-bulb actually ends up being a sublimation hisser.   It'll be evaporating like dry-ice man.   The sun doesn't just 100% bounce off the snow... it will warm the molecules in air-contact interface, to above the DP temp and that's evaporating quickly. Like an "acid layer" eating into it.  

It's less like melting pack and more like going directly to gas at an accelerated rate that way. 

But obviously.. one wouldn't notice this if you have a ton to start

Sublimation is a stronger latent cooler than evaporation. We had over 3”. I expect it to mostly be gone by evening, but I don’t think we bust warm until tomorrow. Tonight looks like another strong rad night in the pits. 
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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Sublimation is a stronger latent cooler than evaporation. We had over 3”. I expect it to mostly be gone by evening, but I don’t think we bust warm until tomorrow. Tonight looks like another strong rad night in the pits. 
image.jpeg

Yeah,  3" seems a lot.  It may be enough 'in the bank' to last it out.  

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
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14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I agree with that, however, I think what we'd have to watch for is cloud cover from upstream precipitation/convection...though perhaps shear vectors favor us avoiding this mess.

ha... watch, the polar boundary ends up PIT - ACK ...and we have 38 -r with one or two pellets that day

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vortex95

vortex95

Posted
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On 4/7/2026 at 12:32 AM, metagraphica said:


Couldn’t agree with you more. The purposeful imprecision of ALL of our media companies is appalling no matter what side of the spectrum one might be on.

It's bad enough the hard science gets mucked up, but an increasing problem w/ time is the how all/any information is presented.  It has become egregious in many respects  So many tropes, logical fallacies, slant/spin, and sleazy rhetoric that taints the facts and truth!

I get the business of the media and other outlets, it is a business, but they way things has degraded over time has become a disservice to the public by in large.  Weather is fascinating enough as it is, and there is more than enough great info out there available to all to have plenty to talk about w/ distracting "bells and whistles."  I find so many have a genuine interest in weather, but they have trouble where to start for info and even then have trouble separating fact from fiction, hype from the real deal!

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vortex95

vortex95

Posted
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On 4/7/2026 at 6:28 AM, weatherwiz said:

Well that was fun while it lasted. Saw something out of the corner of my eye and looked and it was snow lol. Just enough for a little bit to stick to the grass, not much though. Down to a very light flurry now 

April snow is ALWAYS welcome, esp. the big PHATTY flakes!  LOL.

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vortex95

vortex95

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On 4/7/2026 at 7:47 AM, weatherwiz said:

I think a strong EL Nino has some pretty high odds, you have some anomalously warm subsurface sea temperatures in the equatorial PAC and have already significantly weakened the easterlies with some impressive WWBs as of late. We shall see what happens though over the next 6-8 weeks but if the ongoing trends continue through these next 6-8 weeks I think we are definitely headed towards a strong EL Nino.

 

We had the WWB in the WPAC and two strong TCs form in the SPAC w/ one currently developing in the NW PAC.  A strong WWB like this is often a precursor for s sig El Nino.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
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On 4/7/2026 at 12:32 AM, metagraphica said:


Couldn’t agree with you more. The purposeful imprecision of ALL of our media companies is appalling no matter what side of the spectrum one might be on.

I like that phrase turn there ... 

I'd go so far as to call it Industrial tabloidism.  I've mused in the past, the moment in history when channel changing, mouse clicking, and eventually ...thumb swiping, all become connected to economics, that was the moment in history that civility was doomed.  

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vortex95

vortex95

Posted
Posted
On 4/7/2026 at 8:14 AM, CoastalWx said:

I think the worst outcome is 36F snow like I had earlier. I’ll take an April blizzard.

Scott would be happy w/ this from 39 years ago.  Vicariously he would be impressed!

       4/3/1987
       A large, slow moving low pressure produced very heavy snows
        over the Appalachian Region starting on the 3rd and continuing
        into the 5th.  60 inches fell at Newfound Gap in western North
        Carolina -- the largest single storm snowfall in the state's
        history.  Up to 36 inches was reported in southeastern
        Kentucky.  The total of 25 inches at Charleston, West Virginia
        easily surpassed its previous record for the entire month of
        April of 5.9 inches.  The 20.6 inch total at Akron, Ohio
        established an all-time record for that location.  Interstate
        40 was closed by snow for the first time since it was opened
        20 years ago.  This storm also dumped heavy snow in central
        and northeastern Alabama.  Never before had a snowfall
        blanketed Alabama in April.  10 inches fell at Valley Head, 9
        inches piled up at Fort Payne, and Birmingham recorded 6
        inches.  Lightning and thunder accompanied the snow in some
        areas while snow flurries fell as far south as Mobile.  This
        was the first snow ever reported in the month of April in
        Mobile since records began in 1872.  The storm became known
        unofficially as the "Dogwood Snowstorm" in the state.

This same storm resulted in big flooding in New England.  I recall the Merrimack River at ULowell ragin'!

       4/4/1987
        New England was in the middle of its second heavy rainstorm in
        5 days.  This was the same storm that produced record snows in
        the Appalachians.  This storm dumped 4 to 7 inches of rain over
        the area and this, combined with snow melt and rivers already at
        bankfull, produced record flooding, especially in Maine.  2300
        homes were flooded in Maine with 215 totally destroyed.  Record
        water levels were reached at many dams.  Damage in the state
        alone reached 100 million dollars.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
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6 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

We had the WWB in the WPAC and two strong TCs form in the SPAC w/ one currently developing in the NW PAC.  A strong WWB like this is often a precursor for s sig El Nino.

Yeah the strength of the few WWBs we've seen this early is pretty noteworthy. If we maintain surges of WWB moving into the summer we are goin to see EL Nino become established rather quickly

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vortex95

vortex95

Posted
Posted
On 4/7/2026 at 9:48 AM, tamarack said:

3rd biggest April snowfall at Central Park but easily its most wintry April event, POR 1869 on.  Yankees' home opener had been set for April 6; at the 1 PM game time it was 25°, S+, 6" new.  Their max of 30° on 4/7 is tied for their coldest April max.
The storm was my all-time good bust.  CAR forecast for 4/7 the afternoon before was cloudy, windy 20s.  In the evening they added flurries.  Final total was 26.3", at the time their biggest snowfall, now in 4th place.

Powder blizzard in April, quite a storm.  And the cold behind it?  -25 C at 850.  BOS high of 25 the day after the storm was colder than the previous record *low* temp for the day, despite full sun.

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