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Napril 2026 Discussion/Obs


Torch Tiger
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19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Wednesday could be socked in with clouds, though could be some potential to get some breaks in 

I doubt it...  

The continent is too dry.  The flow is WSW under that polar boundary transporting a kinetically charged well mixed layer originating from the west TX high country.  Good luck.   If we are safely in that warm conveyor like the GFS?  not much cloud.   That's a red flag warning scenario there this early and prior to our own geographical green up. 

Even if the RH sigmas are juicier ( 800 to 300 mb levels) I'd personally lean on that being dryer verifying.

 

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I doubt it...  

The continent is too dry.  The flow is WSW under that polar boundary transporting a kinetically charged well mixed layer originating from the west TX high country.  Good luck.   If we are safely in that warm conveyor like the GFS?  not much cloud.   That's a red flag warning scenario there this early and prior to our own geographical green up. 

Even if the RH sigmas are juicier ( 800 to 300 mb levels) I'd personally lean on that being dryer verifying.

 

I agree with that, however, I think what we'd have to watch for is cloud cover from upstream precipitation/convection...though perhaps shear vectors favor us avoiding this mess.

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39 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

how much did you wind up with ?

I bet with high sun shining on snow, the dry wet-bulb actually ends up being a sublimation hisser.   It'll be evaporating like dry-ice man.   The sun doesn't just 100% bounce off the snow... it will warm the molecules in air-contact interface, to above the DP temp and that's evaporating quickly. Like an "acid layer" eating into it.  

It's less like melting pack and more like going directly to gas at an accelerated rate that way. 

But obviously.. one wouldn't notice this if you have a ton to start

Sublimation is a stronger latent cooler than evaporation. We had over 3”. I expect it to mostly be gone by evening, but I don’t think we bust warm until tomorrow. Tonight looks like another strong rad night in the pits. 
image.jpeg

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Sublimation is a stronger latent cooler than evaporation. We had over 3”. I expect it to mostly be gone by evening, but I don’t think we bust warm until tomorrow. Tonight looks like another strong rad night in the pits. 
image.jpeg

Yeah,  3" seems a lot.  It may be enough 'in the bank' to last it out.  

 

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14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I agree with that, however, I think what we'd have to watch for is cloud cover from upstream precipitation/convection...though perhaps shear vectors favor us avoiding this mess.

ha... watch, the polar boundary ends up PIT - ACK ...and we have 38 -r with one or two pellets that day

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On 4/7/2026 at 12:32 AM, metagraphica said:


Couldn’t agree with you more. The purposeful imprecision of ALL of our media companies is appalling no matter what side of the spectrum one might be on.

It's bad enough the hard science gets mucked up, but an increasing problem w/ time is the how all/any information is presented.  It has become egregious in many respects  So many tropes, logical fallacies, slant/spin, and sleazy rhetoric that taints the facts and truth!

I get the business of the media and other outlets, it is a business, but they way things has degraded over time has become a disservice to the public by in large.  Weather is fascinating enough as it is, and there is more than enough great info out there available to all to have plenty to talk about w/ distracting "bells and whistles."  I find so many have a genuine interest in weather, but they have trouble where to start for info and even then have trouble separating fact from fiction, hype from the real deal!

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On 4/7/2026 at 6:28 AM, weatherwiz said:

Well that was fun while it lasted. Saw something out of the corner of my eye and looked and it was snow lol. Just enough for a little bit to stick to the grass, not much though. Down to a very light flurry now 

April snow is ALWAYS welcome, esp. the big PHATTY flakes!  LOL.

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On 4/7/2026 at 7:47 AM, weatherwiz said:

I think a strong EL Nino has some pretty high odds, you have some anomalously warm subsurface sea temperatures in the equatorial PAC and have already significantly weakened the easterlies with some impressive WWBs as of late. We shall see what happens though over the next 6-8 weeks but if the ongoing trends continue through these next 6-8 weeks I think we are definitely headed towards a strong EL Nino.

 

We had the WWB in the WPAC and two strong TCs form in the SPAC w/ one currently developing in the NW PAC.  A strong WWB like this is often a precursor for s sig El Nino.

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