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Napril 2026 Discussion/Obs


Torch Tiger
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19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Wednesday could be socked in with clouds, though could be some potential to get some breaks in 

I doubt it...  

The continent is too dry.  The flow is WSW under that polar boundary transporting a kinetically charged well mixed layer originating from the west TX high country.  Good luck.   If we are safely in that warm conveyor like the GFS?  not much cloud.   That's a red flag warning scenario there this early and prior to our own geographical green up. 

Even if the RH sigmas are juicier ( 800 to 300 mb levels) I'd personally lean on that being dryer verifying.

 

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I doubt it...  

The continent is too dry.  The flow is WSW under that polar boundary transporting a kinetically charged well mixed layer originating from the west TX high country.  Good luck.   If we are safely in that warm conveyor like the GFS?  not much cloud.   That's a red flag warning scenario there this early and prior to our own geographical green up. 

Even if the RH sigmas are juicier ( 800 to 300 mb levels) I'd personally lean on that being dryer verifying.

 

I agree with that, however, I think what we'd have to watch for is cloud cover from upstream precipitation/convection...though perhaps shear vectors favor us avoiding this mess.

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39 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

how much did you wind up with ?

I bet with high sun shining on snow, the dry wet-bulb actually ends up being a sublimation hisser.   It'll be evaporating like dry-ice man.   The sun doesn't just 100% bounce off the snow... it will warm the molecules in air-contact interface, to above the DP temp and that's evaporating quickly. Like an "acid layer" eating into it.  

It's less like melting pack and more like going directly to gas at an accelerated rate that way. 

But obviously.. one wouldn't notice this if you have a ton to start

Sublimation is a stronger latent cooler than evaporation. We had over 3”. I expect it to mostly be gone by evening, but I don’t think we bust warm until tomorrow. Tonight looks like another strong rad night in the pits. 
image.jpeg

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Sublimation is a stronger latent cooler than evaporation. We had over 3”. I expect it to mostly be gone by evening, but I don’t think we bust warm until tomorrow. Tonight looks like another strong rad night in the pits. 
image.jpeg

Yeah,  3" seems a lot.  It may be enough 'in the bank' to last it out.  

 

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14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I agree with that, however, I think what we'd have to watch for is cloud cover from upstream precipitation/convection...though perhaps shear vectors favor us avoiding this mess.

ha... watch, the polar boundary ends up PIT - ACK ...and we have 38 -r with one or two pellets that day

  • Haha 1
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